craig

Thanks, Nathan. Very, very interesting. I'll guess that Sotolongo will be demoted, he's been toast his last handful of outings. At his age and without any extraordinary velocity, it's hard to see him commanding extended opportunity. It's a shame that Billek has struggled. I had a friend the other day who watched him get pounded, and said he didn't have a single pitch that reached as high as 90. So either he's not healthy, or else the velocity that Cub scouts had seen on occassion and that they projected to possibly become more consistent with improved health and/or optimized delivery, it seems that velocity step hasn't materialized. Maybe it will in future, but for now it probably makes sense to get him out of the rotation. Often when they call somebody up, it's a rehab pitcher (Ransom, Blasko, and Petrick are three rehab guys I know of), or a college vet, or somebody like Downs (who may be rehab/hurt for all I know); or they could call up a college vet for relief and shift some reliever into rotation. Taylor choice is none of those, so I'm hoping it means he's been rocking in XST. I guess we'll get a better picture over the next several rotations. Interesting that he got the call rather than Pawelek. Possible reasons I can think of: a) Pawelek is hurt (no reason to assume any such thing...) b) Taylor is much less wild than Pawelek and in terms of current readiness, is simply more advanced than Pawelek (Pawelek is a month or two older, I think), c) Taylor's stuff is simpler than Pawelek, and less likely to go wildman than Pawelek, d) Pawelek is a bigger deal, so they'll treat him more carefully. They want to make sure Pawelek is limited to an easy league where he won't struggle too much; if Taylor struggles some, they don't mind as much. d) Taylor is a tougher hard-guy psychologically, so perhaps they think he'd respond better to being overmatched than would Pawelek? e) Maybe Pawelek is a hard worker but Taylor is more lazy? If the lazy guy gets spanked in Peoria, that will be the movitation he needs to work harder? Whereas getting spanked in Peoria would not help Pawelek since he's already working as hard as he can? f) Maybe Pawelek has been the lazy one? So this is a reward to the harder working Taylor, and a message to Pawelek and everybody else that it's not about draft status anymore, work hard or people will pass you by? g) Taylor played against some fairly decent Virginia area teams. Pawelek only against some very low-competition Utah teams. So even though Pawelek is a shade older and higher drafted, his actual baseball experience is way less, and he needs more practice to catch up? h) Taylor's stuff and delivery hasn't been changed much, so he's been able to keep pitching the way he did in HS. But perhaps they've done a lot more reworking with Pawelek's mechanics and stride and grip and release points, etc., so it's going to take him a lot longer to geet consistent? i) It's PR. If a high-draft advances and gets slaughtered, he looks bad, the org looks bad, the org gets accused of "rushing" etc., and it just brings out tons of fault-finding. If a later draft moves up and gets killed, you just send him back down, and nobody finds it at all shocking that a 5th rounder isn't ready yet, who expected him to be?

Whatever problem Wells has, he's not past it yet, and whatever source suggested he'd pitch today is wrong. Paul Schappert starting the game for the Jaxx. O well.

1. What happened to Randy Wells? IIRC, he was the 3rd guy in the rotation the first two cycles. But rotation three, he hasn't pitched, and with a double header involved and Pigs and Chris Shaver getting starts, it's hardly for lack of need for a starter. Does anybody know what and how bad his problem is? 2. Tonight Rapada appeared in his 9th game already, and the season is only two weeks old. Is that too much this early, or getting close to too much this early? Do the Cubs or other orgs put limits on how often a manager can use his relievers?

Veal with his first good box-score. But he is establishing himself as an extreme flyball pitcher. His G/F ratio thus far is 0.36! Only 8 groundouts in 3 starts, 22 flyouts. Last year he was also flyball-ish, although not as extreme. May make Rich Hill and Wellemeyer look like groundball artists? Berg remains a GB-guy supreme, even in a bad game. If Mathes standard FB/curveball/change guy? Is he really slow, or his fastball respectable? An 86-89 type fastball, or more an 83-86 type? He's been a low-walks control artist, and last year was a groundball guy to the extreme (2.89 G/F according to Baseball America). He's been likewise GB-oriented in his three good starts. He started pretty good last year, but then gave up hits by the bushel during the summer months last year. Hopefully that was a fluke? First full-season year, arm got tired? Or he had some nagging injury that he pitched through, but is gone now and has no predictive power? Or for some reason he lost his curve, or something? Also, anything in his delivery that might make him extra tough on lefties and thus might make him well suited for Loogy?

Keeper, Q's: How does Pie's stats compare to typical major leaguers? Specifically: 1) the swing-and-miss percentage? 2) The percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone 3) The percentage of swings at pitches low 4) The percentage of swings at pitches high 5) The percentage of strikes taken versus swung at... Without knowing how his chart compares, I can't conclude much. But I'd have several guesses (correct those that are wrong): a) His percentage of swings with contact is very, very high b) His percentage of swings at balls low is very low. (Well, obviously, since it is zero in your chart! But I'm thinking that must be extremely unusual, since the average hitter should be swinging at some breaking balls that are bouncing in the dirt...) c) His percentage of strikes taken is somewhat low. My take is that his plate discipline and pitch recognition is pretty good, and his contact hitting is pretty good. (Or at least has been thus far). Probably his recognition of breaking pitches is relatively good, else he'd have more swings at sliders in the dirt. That he doesn't walk isn't like Corey, who swung at a lot of bad balls and swung through a lot of good balls. Rather, he doesn't walk because he pretty much reads which pitches will be in the zone; he rarely takes them, other than outside edge; and when he swings at strikes, he hits them. If you swing at most of the strikes and usually hit them, it's hard to walk. Not often that a pitcher will go an AB without throwing even a single strike.

seth, I was just copying a post by another person. As specified, brenley was an unsigned HS player. But he is *not* a draft-and-follow. Yes, of course, that is Bob's son. For my own interest, I tried to search the guys who actually are D+F candidates. Found some, not all. (Not all JC type schools have web sites, obviously). I've included a few comments, and links to the sites where I got the stats. Some schools may be basicaly done already, others may have considerable season left, I don't know. But I thought it might be nice to have the links posted, so anybody could check if there's anything new. Ware, Ferguson, an dWilliams look interesting. =========== Draft and Follow Candidates: 20. Leonardo Ware, OF, 3/18/1987, 5’10”, 185, Atlanta --Okaloosa-Walton (FL) CC http://owcc-r-06.owcc.net/raider/baseball/statistics.htm Doing great, hitting .352, starting every game, 20/21 in SB/CS, tops in SB, 2nd in HR, 2nd in slugging. 31 Brad DePoy rhp 9/14/1984 6-1, 205 San Jacinto (Texas) JC TX no link 32 Colby Wark RHP 8/12/1986 6-3, 215 Lower Columbia (Wash.) JC WA http://www.lcc.ctc.edu/athletics/baseball/mens/ Wark doesn’t appear to be on the team. 33. Ben Ferguson, RHP, 10/10/1986, 6’7”, 210, Salt Lake (UT) CC. http://www.slcc.edu/athletics/athletics/BSBOverall.htm Having a dominant spring. 7-2, 0.70 ERA, average ERA is 3.3. 34 Cody Gilbert 3B 8/21/1985 6-3, 185 Lincoln Trail (Ill.) JC IL http://www.njcaa.org/schmain.cfm?sid=7&divid=0&gender=m&slid=3&menu=11&cid=1580&seasonselect=321&schmenu=4&teamid=47654 not doing anything much. Some power. .208 after about 9 games or so. 35 Drew O'Connell rhp 5/11/1986 6-3, 195 John A. Logan (Ill.) JC IL http://www.njcaa.org/schmain.cfm?sid=7&divid=0&gender=m&slid=3&menu=11&cid=1574&seasonselect=321&schmenu=4&teamid=47650 Pitching very little, only 10 innings or so. Other guys pushing 50, so he’s definitely not one of the starters. 41. Chris Rollins, RHP, P 9/16/1986, 6’4”, 190, New Jersey, Potomac State (W.VA) JC. no link 42. Josh Garza, RHP, 10/9/1986, 6’0”, 190, Burleson Texas North Central (TX) CC. no link 46. Luther Murphy, 1B, 3/15/1986, 6’4”, 225, Florida, Palm Beach (FL) CC. no link 47. Mario Williams, C, 7/4/1987, 6’2, 220, Tampa Fl, Lake City (FL) CC. http://www.lakecitycc.edu/departments/athletics/baseball/stats.htm Having a strong spring. >42% CS/SB rate, hitting .319, 3rd highest OPS (.860) on team. Very low walks,though.

Thanks, JAXX! Man, bummer for Cash. Misses two years, basically, then pitched one gem and it's right back to the DL. So, any guess what the rotation plan is? Shaver to Jaxx rotation? (He's basically been stretched out long in Hagerty-relief anyway, so it's not like he isn't ready to pitch long...). Or Shaver to relief (his likely big-league role...) with Pigs or Cherry or somebody with less big-league potential going in rotation?

Thanks, raw. Glad to hear it's not true and not an issue.

From the game reports that I recall having read, I seem to recall most of Pie's hard-hit balls being rockets down the line, or doubles past the 1st basemen, or an occassional XBH somewhere in right field. I haven't done any special tracking to that effect. Am I misperceiving, and he's gotten plenty of hits to left center etc. as well? Or does the idea seem accurate that his solid contact is more consistently RF-pull than is true for the ordinary good-hitting big-leaguer? If so, is that a concern, or a problem?

TX, thanks for the game observations. Always helpful to hear.

The reports from last summer was that Luis was a natural in the outfield, and was a very good corner outfielder with a strong throwing arm. He's never had much speed, though, and I don't think has ever played any pro CF. I don't think CF is ever likely to be a position that he plays much at the big-league level. I doubt he'll ever list as a big-league team's #2 CF, much less it's #1 CF.

As of last fall, "From a reliable source..." "..2. The recap for the 22 unsigned players is as follows: ... B) The 4 unsigned players drafted from JC return to school. They are all possible D & F candidates. Brad DePoy is included in the list, even though he pitched for University of Houston in 2004, and transferred to San Jacinto JC for the 2005 season. He had some arm issues so he may be a medical redshirt, because that is the only way he can return to JC for 2006 season. C) The college choices for the 8 unsigned HS players are as follows: 20. Leonardo Ware, OF, Okaloosa-Walton (FL) CC 33. Ben Ferguson, RHP, Salt Lake (UT) CC. 41. Chris Rollins, RHP, Potomac State (W.VA) JC. 42. Josh Garza, RHP, North Central (TX) CC. 43. Michael Brenly, C, UNLV. 44. Eddie Rush, OF, Clemson. 46. Luther Murphy, 1B, Palm Beach (FL) CC. 47. Mario Williams, C, Lake City (FL) CC. The best D & F possibilities (talent-wise) for right now are O'Connell, Gilbert, Ware, and Rollins." The four JC guys were: 31 Brad DePoy rhp 9/14/1984 6-1, 205 San Jacinto (Texas) JC TX 32 Colby Wark RHP 8/12/1986 6-3, 215 Lower Columbia (Wash.) JC WA 34 Cody Gilbert 3B 8/21/1985 6-3, 185 Lincoln Trail (Ill.) JC IL 35 Drew O'Connell rhp 5/11/1986 6-3, 195 John A. Logan (Ill.) JC IL

That Florida JC league is very good. As far as JC leagues go, that's definitely one of the "major" conferences. Those are very good numbers, all except the 10 walks!

Ouch Plus the 2 HBP, this is not good for Hagerty, if there was speculation of Veal being at Daytona to start the year, it is far fetched, but someone might go up to Daytona (not necessarily Veal) to make room for a certain young lefty from Utah @ Peoria. Shaver has been perfect for 2.2 since Hagerty left, 4 K's, 4 groundouts. He was pretty much perfect pitching long in Hagerty's other start, too. Could just pop him in Hagerty's spot. Or Blasko. Or I suppose they could give Weber a shot, although he seems perhaps over his head in A+. Veal seems way wild for A-, can't see it making much sense to bump him up. Billek doesn't seem very good, struggling again tonight as a flyball pitcher with no K-stuff. Atkins and Blackford seem too young and raw to fit for a jump to A+. I don't really see anybody who's advanced enough and having success at Peoria to merit a promotion. I suppose Yepez might be the closest thing. Harvey with two more K's in his first two AB. He's got 10 K's thus far in 19AB. I know for years the hope has been that with some coaching or shortening his swing or something or other he might be salvagable. But given his arm, I wonder if it might not be a favor to him to consider moving him to the mound sooner rather than later. There had been talk that pre-draft he was viewed as having very high-round potential as a pitcher. I know it's not going to happen, and they'll let him whiff away his career for at least this year and next regardless, he's that strong when he occassionally does hit it. But it's pretty tough to see him ever hitting.

Ditto the question, jigs. I have been expecting some complexity to come out, but haven't seen any suggestion of incentives, or options, or escalation from year to year, or how many extra millions he can make if such or such. I hope we haven't heard because there isn't any such stuff. I'd as soon have the freedom to hope Lee win MVP three years straight without worrying that it will make him a free agent or cost an extra $6 per year or whatever. With you, I wonder what took so long. What "loose ends" would there be if it's a no-frills straight deal? I still suspect we may hear some of those details later on... On Neyer, I don't see how he can fuss much about a 4-year extension for an MVP-class guy who isn't old. Like duh, guys like that are going to agree to short-term deals? Not going to happen, rob. On players and managers: Obviously there are reasons why players aren't very likely to rip managers in public. But with every sports team I've ever followed, there has always been smoke about non-public dissatisfactions with managers. If players don't like a manager, they might not say it in public, but somehow it gets around, and the reporters know about it, etc.. Plus, you can often recognize the difference between token comments that are politically correct to support a manager versus those that are enthusiastically volunteered by a player, and are not provoked by a question that forces them to make statements they don't really feel, but are purely voluntary and shared by the player's own volition. I'm surprised that in three plus year hear, Dusty has gotten a *lot* of voluntary, enthusiastic support from players. And I've heard maybe one single rumor of a player being dissatisfied with Dusty. I think it's fair to say that the player appreciation for Dusty is *not* the usual thing, that it's unusually strong. It's not illogical to reason that players are stupid and selfish and don't care about winning or are too dumb to know how the manager they like is blocking the chance to win. That may be the case, I'm not saying either way. But I personally think it's being dishonest to deny that the players really do as a whole tend to appreciate Dusty much more than the average manager.

Will be interesting to see if Hagerty can bounce back and find the plate. I'd guess he wasn't so awful all spring, or he'd not be in that rotation. But having gone Blass last year, then doing so again last week, I could well imagine that playing with his mind, "Is it happening again?" and every time there isn't a pitch that goes right, he immediately degenerates into "It's happening again..." spiral. I'd think 2-4 rotten starts, and it may be pretty easy to pull the plug. They've kept saying that Blasko is all fine and good, just being extra careful. Another few weeks into the Florida spring, if Blasko really was close to 100% when camp broke, he might be a ready alternative if Hagerty dives. Hopefully it will be a non-issue, and Hagerty will show up today, and flash some 6K/1BB control and be on the road to success. But with all the pitchers they've got stockpiled, I just can't imagine there won't be somebody else who might benefit from some rotation opportunity if/when it becomes evident that Hagerty's not up for it.

Another Gallagher observation: Last year his overall GB/FB was 0.99, pretty neutral and slightly more fly-ball than normal. (The average pitcher gets more GB outs than FB outs.) But in his two starts thus far, that profile has been reversed. He was 10GB/0FB yesterday until his last inning, and on the season he's 17GB/3FB/10K. That's really, really impressive. I'm very curious about that. May be coincidence, of course. Even extreme fly-ball pitchers like Wellemeyer and Rich Hill have occassionally had strong GB games, so two games could just be coincidence. But I might guess that intelligent use of the slider might play a helpful role. If a guy is throwing a pretty sharp fastball and keeping it down and around the corners, I'd guess a pitch that looks like a not-quite-so-fast-fastball and looks like it might be coming more down-the-middle might make hitters' eyes light up and get them swinging. But when that looks-like-a-whackable-fastball slides, mixing in a dozen of those per game might get him an extra half-dozen groundballs per game, including some welcome double-play balls. Sean is also still only 20, only one full year of experience. And he's smart. So it wouldn't seem surprising is he's made some minor technical adjustments to perhaps give his fastball a little more sink or run, or to somehow stay on top of it a little bit better to keep it down and sinking.

One last short Q: Cubs have struck gold with position players (especially catchers) who have switched to pitching. (Carlos Marmol; Randy Wells; recently Oscar Bernard...) Are there any other hitters besides Bernard that you've given over to the pitching side of things this spring? Thanks!

compliments on Dylan Johnton. When Dylan struck out 24 times in 44 AB last year in Rookie League, I'd have never dreamed he'd be ready to be playing in Peoria this spring. But here he is at Peoria, and off to a fast start. Whatever help you gave him, kudos to the both of you! What kind of adjustments did you help him make? Also, Eric Patterson has been very effective, but he does strike out a lot. What do you think causes that, do you think it's correctible or just something bad that comes with the other good things he does? Thanks much.

The Cubs have some prospects who walk a lot (Sing, Patterson, Fuld, and Murton who's graduated...), but many others who walk very little (Harvey, Dopirak, Pie, and Cedeno who's graduated...). Q: To what degree do you encourage non-walkers like Pie and Harvey to take more pitches, and perhaps to value walks for their own sake as useful on-base events that can produce baserunners who can score runs? Q2: Or is encouraging taking more pitches or taking walks something you don't like to do, because it might make hitters think too much? Q3: Coaches don't want to take away the agressiveness of hitters. But are there some individual hitters who are too aggressive, and swing at too many bad balls who you encourage to harness their aggressiveness a little? Q4: Harvey has great power, but has always struggled with some extremely high K rates and low BB rates. The latter is surprising to me, since I'd expect pitchers would be especially careful about throwing strikes to such a power threat. So I'd guess pitchers throw him a lot of bad balls, and if he didn't swing at them, I'd expect a lot of walks rather than so few. From your view, what contributes to his unusual K/BB profile? Swinging at too many bad balls? Swinging at too many bad balls in part because he's struggling to read which pitches are going to be in his hitting zone and which will end up outside his strike zone? Swinging so forcefully that once he starts his swing he can't check it, even if he realizes the pitch will be at his eyes or sliding into the dirt?

Dave, thanks much for responding to our questions. Earlier you were asked about Latin position players, and you mentioned several. If willing, could you expand a bit on what type of player (and hitter) a couple project as? 1. Wilson Inoa. Fleita mentioned him with enthusiasm two winters ago, in terms of having great speed. But he's not a short little guy, I don't think. Do you project him as a slap-and-run type hitter, perhaps ala Juan Pierre? Or does he project to have some size and strength, ala Pie and Murton? 2. You mentioned 18-year-old catcher Welllington Castillo. What can you tell us about him as an athlete, a body shape, a catcher, and a hitter? If everything were to click for him, would you project him as a defense-first catcher who can also hit? (Jose Reyes, for example, would be on that side..) Or as a hit-first catcher who can also do a good job defensively (Jake Fox and Michael Barrett are probably on that side of the catcher spectrum...)

Thanks so much for the updates. Can't listen, but it's sure fun to read some of the threads, gives a feel for the games and the development. Obviously especially fun when a guy like Marmol is able to back up his strong opener with another dominant game. So, two games, 6 innings each game, no runs each game, 1 hit each game, 2 walks each game! Seems like a pretty nice pattern. 6 K's first game, 8 K's this time. Heh, that could make for a nice consistency pattern.

Mark Grace averaged 3 triples a year, and got as many as 5 four different seasons, including at age 35 when I know he was slower than slow. I wouldn't read too much speed from the fact that Harvey got 2 triples in 467 AB last year. A triple every 2-3 months doesn't require real wheels. Although the scouting reports seem to suggest that last year, he could still move around decently in the outfield, his knees didn't make him a range liability. I'm more concerned about the pitch recognition. If only... If only he could start recognizing pitches well, and hitting what he recognized, that would be awesome and he could be a force. Maybe he and Corey should be roommates someday.

One of Harvey's two hits was an infield job. In 3 games he's got 6 K's already; interestingly enough, at least two of those were taking. I don't imagine he has much pitch recognition, so maybe he can't tell what will or won't be a strike. But hopefully a couple of called K's reflect that he's taking a few more pitches this year and not swinging at everything? In two starts, Justin Berg is 0-2, and has been somewhat wild. But the interesting thing is that in two starts, his outfielders have yet to make an out. In 9.2 innings, he's scored 11 K's 18/0 GB/FB. That's some serious groundball movement! Guys with extreme groundball stuff combined with strikeout stuff, that's a pretty magic combination. Heh, of course good control would be the third aspect of the ideal magic triple, and there's little indication of that thus far. But he seems very interesting. I'd love to get an up-to-date scouting eval on him.

So, no indication from the press thing that there are any mongo incentive possibilities, or a forest of complicating contingency things or free-agency opt-outs or stuff like that? More or less a fairly straight contract? If so, that's fabulous. I am frequently interested in the repeated support that Cub players express for Dusty. Sometimes you think it's just certain players. But it seems to be an awful lot of them, and often from guys who might surprise you. Is it just the dumb players who aren't smart enough to see Dusty's flaws? No, Lee, one of the brightest guys on the team, supports him too. Murton, who seems pretty bright, speaks very positively about him. Is it just the players who have gotten opportunity or had things go right for them under Dusty? No. A guy like Walker, who has felt victimized to large extent, has spoken very positively about Dusty. Hairston, who might have felt victimized, has been a strong Dusty supporter. Etc.. Is Dusty Mr. Brainiac? Perhaps not. But it seems that most baseball players aren't either, and perhaps Dusty's level is better at getting through to them. Or maybe Cubs aren't so dumb, and see some things in Dusty relative to other managers in the industry that does make him relatively good, at least by comparison. I know this board feeds on anti-Dusty, Cubs are idiots philosophy. But it occurs to me that perhaps it's at least slightly possible the Cubs support Dusty so much because there is some basis for appreciating him? I'm not sure I've heard as much of that pro-Dusty stuff from the pitchers, I admit. So I suppose it's at least possible that it is only selective pro-Dusty voices, or that they aren't speaking from the heart but only doing the PR-correct thing. But at present, I'm inclined to believe that it's genuine.