craig

Thanks a ton for the link. Fun to get some feedback on those guys. When the farm was hot, it was the International guys who elevated it: Z, Cruz, Guzman, Beltran, Pie, Choi, Sanchez. Haven't been many good Latin guys hitting the states in the last 4-5 years. But now it looks like we've got some action again. Ceda by trade, obviously, but Castillo and Dolis at Peoria emerging as value guys. Robert Hernandez, Cabrera, and Acosta provide three significant, promising 18-year-old pitchers in short-season. One other guy I'm interested in is 3B Marwin Gonzalez, who played regularly at Mesa last and struggled but I think may look better this year with another year. those are the ones I know about. There could be others. (Harold Tolentino? Mario Mercedes? Martinez who AzPhil mentioned?) Would be awesome if some of these guys emerged as genuine value prospects.

Nathan, thanks for the input. I'm interested in some specific scouting impressions regarding the pitchers. 1. Of the rotation pitchers, how would you rank them in terms of pure velocity? My guess would be Ceda > Dolis > Pina > Muldowny > Albuquerque. How wrong am I? 2. Of the relievers, how would you rank them in terms of pure velocity? My guess would be Roquet > Castillo >>> Ruhlman, Maestri > Carillo, Papelbon. How far off would I be? 3. Of the rotation pitchers, how would you rank them in terms of breaking ball? My guess would be Muldowny >>> Ceda > Albuquerque > Dolis > Pina. 4. Of the relievers, how would you rank them in terms of breaking ball? My guess would be Ruhlman, Maestri, Papaelbon all pretty good > Carillo > Roquet >>>>>>>>> Castillo. 5. What could you share about Pina? You mentioned that he threw harder than his low-K rates would suggest, but given how few K's he gets, that could be anything from 85mph to 99 mph! I assume that if he is to someday become a major leaguer, he'll need to come up with a breaking pitch that he probably doesn't have much of now. But does he look like he does or perhaps projects to throw hard enough fastball to have good, perhaps even excellent big-league velocity? 6. Heredia has yet to get a hit, and has seemed to K more often than not. From what you saw in spring or what you see on the team, do you have any guesses on who might take over in center if/when heredia gets returned to extended spring training? Does Joseph look like he can handle CF, or might they want to get somebody from Mesa if Heredia can't get going?

The dope slap boosts his OPS up over .400, boosts his effective OBP (double-plays adjusted) up and perhaps over .200, and boosts his monster slugging percentage up and over .200. It's progress!

Thanks for those AZ Phil reports. Well, sounds like no Latin position players of note. But, Robert Hernandez turns up again as impressive. That's cool. Raisin, my friend is a friend of a Baltimore scout, who said that Ceda had the hard fastball and a wild but interesting slider. He compared him to Lee Smith, and seemed to think he had the menacing presence and the wildness to be rather scary as a closer. I have noticed before in reports from this scout that his definition of slider and curve doesn't seem to always be the same as what other sources use. So my guess is that his slider and your curve are likely the same pitch, different names or different days.

I'd also like to hear about his stuff. I know that Ceda, Castillo, and Dolis all throw very hard. And, all three are pretty wild. Physically, Ceda is the hulk of the bunch. Ceda has a slider of some promise. All three of Ceda, Castillo, and Dolis have been pretty wild. Not sure what if anything Dolis and Castillo have for non-fastball. But Pina and Albuquerque, I don't know what they've got. Carillo is a little guy who doesn't throw hard, even though he seems to have better control and maybe a breaking pitch. I'd love to hear Raisin's observations on them.

Some names not on any rosters: Hagerty (well, I hadn't seen him on a release list, and he's still kind of an interesting story), Billek (DL, released, extended spring training?), Holdzkom, Sammy Baez. I wonder who the 4th and 5th starters at Daytona will be. Petrick one of them, I hope. Blackford (sp?)? Santo? Estrada? Maybe even Grant Johnson? Unless something bizarrely good has happened with Grant johnson's arm, I'd have maybe prefered to keep Berg or Reinhard back at Daytona. Santo is probably the only one of those guys with any arm.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070402&content_id=199902&vkey=pr_t451&fext=.jsp&sid=t451 Iowa roster. The most interesting aspect is that Marmol will be in the rotation rather than in relief. I'm very pleased to see that. And I think it makes sense, given the problems that the Cubs may have. Opening day starter: your ace prospect JR Mathes! Joining Mathes in the rotation are Marmol and hot roster-fill prospects O'Malley, Les Walrond, and soft-tosser Randy Wells. Pen has Cherry, Rapada, and a handful of old veteran minor-league free agent roster-filler. That could be one really, really bad pitching staff. Heh, at one point I'd thought Iowa might have a really exciting rotation with Guzman, Marshall, Marmol, Mateo, Ryu, and Shaver being six valid major-league prospects, so many rotation pitchers that Marmol might logically be bumped to closer. Marmol, Rapada, Cherry, and Novoa making a dynamite bullpen too. But, that's the way it goes with injuries. Marshall on DL, Mateo on DL, Shaver on DL, Wood on DL which indirectly cost Iowa Guzman, and Ryu having gotten dumped (because we supposedly had too much high pitching?) So instead line it up with Mathes, O'Malley, and Walrond, and enjoy.

Still waiting on the Daytona roster. But with Tenn above and Peoria below announced, we can maybe do some guessing. A couple of surprises to me/comments on Tennessee's: 1. Hart in rotation. He's the dude we got for Bynum. I hadn't expected him for rotation, or realilzed that he was an ACC all-star in 2004.... as a 1B! 2. I'd expected Holdzkom there, not so. 3. I hadn't expected either Mueller or Reinhard there, and I'd hoped that Reinhard would be pitching rotation wherever he got assigned. Daytona speculation: I'd thought both Reinhard and Berg might be in the Daytona rotation derby. And that Mueller in the pen. So, who's left unaccounted for: Atkins, Samardz, and Taylor obviously for rotation, if healthy. Petrick, if healthy, whether bullpen or rotation. Yepez, Blackford, Billek, Estrada, and Grant Johnson all in the pool of possibilities, whether for rotation or bullpen. Odd that Billek, who was awful last year and hasn't shown any velocity or otherwise desirable stuff may still be in the mix. A friend who was at Fitch said that Billek was actually working with an "A" group (Atkins, Veal, Huseby, Petrick, Suarez, Castillo, all good-arm serious guys....) Guys who, if they are healthy and make it, are defintiely relief: Avery, Cooper, Holdzkom, Blevins. Reed, Muyco, and Rick in the catcher pool. Norwood 1B. Reynolds probably involved to some degree at 3B. Sammy Baez was included in BA's top 30, and isn't at Peoria. If he's healthy and still with the org, I'm guessing he might be at SS. Valdez maybe in left? Colvin in center. Assuming Baez, Daytona could have Baez, Colvin, and Reed from BA's top 30 list. With Samardz, Petrick, Atkins, and Taylor as four pitchers from the top-30.

Thanks, nice. The uncertainty about the rotation stuff is interesting, and perhaps sensible. A lot of these guys are so young and so inexperienced and have such limited track record of successs, and spring training is so short, it probably doesn't make a ton of sense to decide who is or isn't starting. And, with a lot of young pitchers and young arms, the prospect of keeping innings and pitch counts under control also makes sense. Often in short-season, everybody gets to start some and there isn't necessarily well-defined rotation. Perhaps this may be like that. And, if Pawelek is in that mix, it doesn't necessarily reflect that he won't be starting or that he or his arm are going bust. Maybe he's just fine, and he'll start, pitch well, and keep starting. I would think that whomever is the pitching coach, he better be pretty sharp. He's going to be working with a lot of pitchers who aren't exactly locked in. A lot of guys who are still impressionable and changeable and teachable.

Jon, why do you think Pawelek's arm being stretched out should be at issue? I hadn't read of any injuries or reported physical problems with his arm. Do you know something that hasn't been reported, or perhaps something that is not at liberty for public disclosure? Bruno, I agree with Cal. Of course there are reasons for Pawelek not being an obvious rotation guy. It's the reasons that are more of concern than the wisdom of the decision-making. Chief, thanks a lot for the list. That could be an interesting team. Some disappointments to me; I'd hoped that dudes like Pawelek and Huseby and Renshaw might look so dynamic in camp that they'd make full-A rotation. And I'd hoped that guys like Lopez and Rundle and Clevenger would look so great that they'd command a full-season debut. And I'd hoped that Carter would look so super that he'd get a promotion, too, and that Lansford might jump right up to A+. But, great that colvin did, and Samardz. (The day he signed, I'd assumed Samardz would be Peoria.) So, can't have every unrealistic pie-in-the-sky hope. There are some interesting things. Pina hasn't pitched very well; that he's still in the rotation mix is a hopeful indicator that he's maybe got more arm than his past stats might indicate. I certainly hadn't expected that wild-man recent-convert Dolis would be jumping up to full-season, and if so I might have thought a throw-hard-in-relief rotation spot might be more likely than emerging directly into rotation. That he is jumping up to full-season and is in the rotation is exciting, and suggests he may have had a dynamic winter to step up. Hopefully he'll emerge as somebody to get excited about. Albuquerque hasn't done much in Mesa, and has had injuries, after at one point getting some Fleita hype. Would be neat if somebody from the Albuquerque, Castillo, Carillo type class of Latin pitchers emerged as value. One surprise that's not on that list is Lopez, the OF in the Ryu trade that Wilken paid 3rd round money for in 05. I'd figured he'd normally be at Peoria. If indeed he's not, that probably means he's either hurt or else has looked not-too-impressive this spring. O well, with his super-Harvey K-rate he was a pretty long shot anyway. With Huseby, Rundle, Anderson, Clevenger, and Robert Hernandez, Boise could have a pretty good nucleus. And Suarez at Mesa could be a good first piece there, too. The Dominican team last year didn't win many, but had a core of your, tall, 17-year-old pitchers who did well. So there's a chance that Suarez and some of them will give Mesa an excellent pitching nucleus. The Dominican team as usual had no hitting, so Mesa isn't likely to have (m)any player prospects outside of new draftees.

Tennessee looks to have interesting pitching. The one name that surprised me, other than Hart in rotation, was Greg Reinhart in relief. I'd guessed him to be in daytona's staff. Boise is looking like it could be pretty good. Rundle, Anderson, Huseby, Robert Hernandez, that's possibly a rather good nucleus.

Disappointing that Harvey, Fuld, Shaver, Phelps, and Pawelek are all unfit to start the season as starters. I'm sure we'll hear about other unfit guys as we go. If Pawelek is unfit two springs out of two, it doesn't speak well to the future health of his arm or his commitment or his career. Must be something wrong with one of those things.

I thought I'd start a thread for popping in info as the minor-league team rosters come out over the next couple of dyas. Pawelek is in Peoria's bullpen. Maybe he'll end up being a good reliever. But that can't be very encouraging about his career. Roquet as well at Peoria. http://www.pjstar.com/stories/040107/KEV_BCQBB4UM.077.php Berg and hart (ineffective 24-year-old Baltimore pickup from bynum)g both in Tennessee's rotation, along with Holliman and of course Gallagher and Veal. http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/smokies_baseball/article/0,1406,KNS_329_5456813,00.html Samardzija was announced yesterday as at Daytona, and since Colvin is obviously there as well, given that's been expected and that he's not at Peoria. http://www.daytonacubs.com/cgi-bin/dist/news.cgi?id=1

I'm not sure about this. First, it's not clear how much help this adjustment will make, if any. It's not as if he's missing RH bats suddenly after the shift. 2nd, he was in the different place on the mound last year, the Piniella way, and got wasted in the spring. Third, Angel has said the Piniella suggestion has gotten him back to where he used to stand. But that it was Maddux who told him to move to the middle. So, Piniella says stand on the 3B side, so you can pitch on the inside. Maddux told hiim to stand in the middle, so you can pitch to the outside. So, was Roth a dope to go with Maddux over Lou? I'm not sure. Seems to me that a lot of pithers are able to pitch to both sides, and if you can't it's a problem. Maddux thought Guz couldn't work the outside from Lou's position, Lou doesn't think Guz can work the inside from maddux's position. I dunno. He's probably going to need to come up with something so that he can work both inside AND outside, at the same time, from the same position on the mound. If he can't use both, he's only going to go so far. I'm not dissing Guzman. But I think it's maybe foolish to trash Rothschild as being too dumb to notice, when he may have been going along with the views of one of the brightest pitching analysts around in Maddux. I'm not sure being on Maddux's side necessarily makes Rothschild that dumb.

Fun to guess. 2005 guy = Albert Joseph, OF 2006 returners: Probably: Dylan Johnston (SS) Heredia (CF) The other four are probably from the following: a) one of the catchers (Lalli?) and or b) pitchers. Joel Santo, Angulo Jiminez, Jon Mueller, Roger Evenson, and Marco Carillo all pitched at Peoria last year. I'm guessing several of them will be on the roster this week, . Given that you mentioned the staff is heavily foreign born, probably at least a couple from Santo, Jiminez, and Carillo. Heh, given that you said "foreign born" but didn't say "Latin", I'll also guess that Maestri made it.

Thanks lots for feedback, Chief. Hmm, we should put together some roster guesses. I'll be way wrong, I'm sure, but just for fun. Peoria: Rotation: Ceda Pawelek Muldowney Renshaw Huseby (very iffy, but I'm feeling hopeful...) Other candidates? Castillo, Santo, Pina, one of the Dominican kids Interesting arms that may show up, perhaps in relief: Castillo, Roquet, Dolis, Ruhlman, Mueller, Kopach, Infield: Canzler, Camp, Johnston, Lansford as the definite starters. Utility subs, who knows. I wonder if Sammy Baez still around? Catcher: Mercedes, Clevenger, and Canepa. Clevenger may be something of a wild guess, and I'm just being wishful thinking. The odds of a position-switch guy getting immediately put into regular game action in a full-season league may be a reach, maybe more likely that he'll stay back at extended spring. But as with Huseby, I'm hoping. OF: Joseph, Lewis, and Heredia I'll guess. More wishful thinking, that Rundle is ready. A possibility could be that Yusuf would return, but I don't expect that. Peoria OF is kind of tricky, because Colvin and Camp were two of Boise's primary OFers, and neither of them will be in Peoria's OF. Most likely some of the spots will be manned by some older more roster-fill prospects, rather than all the younger-we-hope-they-blossom-into-major-league prospects.

Thanks much. Interesting that speedy Heredia has moved to outfield. He's a very patient hitter and very fast. 19. Has not hit much yet, though, and no power, yet. "A young kid named Hernandez threw very well the last game I saw ...." I'm delighted to hear that. Did he look good in terms of velocity, or smoothness, or breaking ball? Hernandez is only 18, and went straight to mesa last year after signing, and pitched effectively at only 17. Cubs haven't had many pitchers who they sign and put straight in the U.S. at age 17, and who actually have success. I'm hoping he's a good one. Did you by chance see Julio Castillo or Rafael Dolis, a couple of guys I understand throw very hard? (But were very wild last year.) Infield: Was Lansford all at 3B? I'd heard he might have played some SS. Last year we wee high on Phelps, but he wasn't very healthy last year. Any idea if he's healthy this spring? Avery was great lat year. Have you heard anything to confirm that he'll still be in relief? For some reason I've wondered if he might not be an interesting rotation guy. From what you saw or heard, any idea of who'll actually open with Peoria? Rundle and Huseby and Anderson are three I'm curious about. Any guesses for rotation at this point?

Thanks, Cal. That had been my impression based on seeing a few game-stats this spring, that he was K'ing like crazy, even while facing some not-always-great nonconference teams. K'ing over 20% of AB, that's not a great sign. Interesting that his K rate has actually gotten worse each year. Overall it seems fairly high for a college hitter but not horrible. Not a perfect hitter, obviusly.

How uniform is the consensus that Wieters will be able to catch in the big-leagues right away or with only a little additional polish? And how uniform is the consensus that Wieters will be able to stay at catcher, even as some years pass? Sometimes guys get bigger after their 21st birthday and lose some of the quickness and/or flexibility required to catch. Is the view on his catching defense that it's OK enough to stick there, given his bat? Or is the view that he projects as a flat-out asset defender at catcher, regardless of his bat? Q3, is he a fairly high-K type hitter? Or is he such a perfect hitter (in college) that he hits for power and gets the walks but still doesn't K at all either? To me, plus power and plus walks can more than justify plenty of K's. But the perfect projection hitting prospect is the guy who can swing hard enough to hit HR's, who can be patient and selective enough to take walks, and who can do all those things without K'ing very much. High HR + low K = high average and slugging (Aram, Bonds, Pujols), and high average + high walks = high OBP (Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols). Perfect. So I guess I'm asking, is Wieters the perfect hitter (power + patience + contact all in one)? Or is more a case of a guy who K's plenty, but whose power and patience at present more than justify whatever K's he gets? (Sosa in prime?)

I agree with most of your post. There are similarities. And if Dopirak emerges into a big power hitter, well, there's value somehow. And obviously he's limited to 1B/DH/PH, it's not like he has defensive potential to move. (It's not clear whether he has defensive potential to be even adequate at 1B). And obviously it's not like he needs to hit like Howard. There is a level less than MVP-caliber that is still of value. But, the real question for Dopirak revolves around how much huge power he'll ever had. "Both have hit for huge power numbers in the minors..." doesn't really seem true to me. He had one good power season, in low-A. He's consistently hit for big power in batting practice. But only at Peoria (or was it Lansing then?) did he hit for meaningful power. His Daytona season he showed only minor effective power. Producing huge power is more than a matter of being strong and able to hit batting practice bombs. It requires that you can hit the pitches with the speed and movement that real pitchers throw when they are not trying to feed you bombables, but when they are trying to avoid throwing you bombables. Dope obviously has the physical power to do that. At present, it seems that Peoria is likely to be the production exception, and that against better pitchers he'll never be able to apply his power often enough to be a value power guy. It's also obvious that last year was injury. So basically he had one good year at Peoria, and one bad year at Daytona. If he stinks again this year, 3-years-ago Peoria will be further established as the irrelevant fluke. If he produces big this year, the fact that he stunk at Daytona for a year will appear to be the who-knows-why fluke. I see this as a make-or-break year for him. Most likely it will be a break, but too soon to know.l

http://wc4.worldcrossing.com/webx?14@@.1de17c84/2334 Additional notes from scout friend reported by DaveP, post 2309. After the gush in the earlier ones, these are some anti-gush.

It will be interesting to see how the spring plays out, and the draft. Again, I think analogies are helpful and paint a picture, but often there are fine points of difference. For a decade there were prospects who were analogized to Nolan Ryan or Tom Seaver. But few of the Nolan Ryans ended up with quite the durability or velocity or curveball that the real Ryan had. Few of the Tom Seaver comps ended up pitching like the real Tom. Brackman/Samardz is a nice analogy, with the height, the speed, the two-sport, and the as-yet-unfulfilled potential. Obviously however high-90's Brackman supposedly throws, and however good his secondary stuff supposedly already is, the fact that he's kind of struggling along to retire the college hitters thus far suggests that, at least for the moment, something is missing. Obviously the same held true for samardz last spring as well, but Wilken believed anyway, and the Cubs believed to the tun of $10 million. And now (almost) everybody who's seen Sam this spring can't gush enough. So it's well possible that Wilekn will see the same or greater potential in Brackman, and will be thrilled to use the high pick and tons of millions to reel him in. But it's also possible that while the framework of analogy is excellent, that the devil is in the detials and Wilken for whatever reason won't see as much in Brackman as he saw in Samardz. Maybe he doesn't see the ease of delivery. Maybe he doesn't see the same sink-and-tail. Maybe despite his athleticism he doesn't see the same good-for-pitcher athleticism. Maybe he doesn't see the same easy consistency of high velocity. Maybe he sees the high speed, but the same speed with NOvoa movement doesn't have the same appeal as Sam-speed with Sam-movement. Really hard for me to guess. Will certainly be no surprise if it's brackman. And if next spring he looks as great as Samardz supposedly looks now, nobody will care about a couple of struggle games this March. But neither would it be any surprise if despite the hype that Wilken prefers somebody else, even if that be a HS prospect. It will be fun to watch. But it would be more fun if all three of Brackman and Price and Wieters produced over the rest of the spring, so that performance as well as projection would make it a no-brainer that whoever lasts to us at #3 is a no-brainer choice.

abuck, you know we're all really eager to get your scouting reports on guys that you saw in camp.

A poster at bleacherbums has a friend who is a veteran Baltimore Orioles scout, and who has spent a lot of time scouting the Cubs. (He scouted Guzman in winter ball and said Baltimore liked him a lot and had made two firm offers, but Hendry wasn't shopping.) http://wc4.worldcrossing.com/webx?7@@.1de17c84/2317 Post 2292, author DaveP A lot of interesting stuff. But this scout really loves the Cubs farm, especially Samardzija. Dave said the scout raved about him for 15 minutes, and compared his promise to that of minor league Kerry Wood. Said his slider is unhittable, but that he telegraphs it, a problem he thinks is correctible. He was very enthused about Colvin and Veal. Positives about Ceda and Lansford and Cedeno. Scout believed that the pitch selectivity is being seriously emphasized, and scout believed that Hendry was pushing that. Anyway, very gush comments. "One interesting comment. The Cubs have as many prospects with star potential as they ever had in their hayday of a few years ago, and a much deeper pool to choose from. They went from a mediocre system at the beginning of the last year to an excellent one today, largely due to the addition of Samardja, Colvin, Ceda and Lansford."

Quote: Outfielder Ryan Harvey, who is expected to provide the Smokies power, along with first baseman Brian Dopirak and Fox, missed two weeks with a lingering leg problem. "He started off in our early camp (Feb. 23) and he had a hamstring problem he has had in years' past," Fleita said. "We thought we nipped it early, but he was real tight and we backed him off for two weeks." Fleita expects Harvey to be 100 percent and there is sufficient time for him to break camp with the Smokies.