craig

Hernandez is a significant prospect. He was effective last summer, and he's effective now. It isn't common for the Cubs to put a 17-year-old in the US, most stay in the DSL or VSL. That Hernandez was here last summer meant they had hopes. The 165 weight, that's the same listing they had last year. Often it takes a while before those get updated. I think the last time I can recall the Cubs having a prospect younger than Hernandez at full-A was Carlos Zambrano, who listed at 17. Hope Hernandez works out. And that he stays healthy. At the rate he's going, he'll have a lot of innings under his belt by the time he turns 21. Whatever kind of curve and fastball Hernandez has, neither appears to have much groundball movement. Like Veal and Atkins before him, he hasn't gotten a lot of groundouts. And it's almost seemed that on his more effective outings, he's gotten even fewer. That will be interesting to watch. I'm not real sure what I think about groundball orientation. Normally you'd prefer it. And there's nothing better than a heavy groundball fastball. But, there are a lot of groundball oriented guys who give up plenty of HR's, too. The good pitches get grounders; the mistakes sometimes have nothing and get creamed. And, sometimes having a lot of air outs makes you think a guy is giving up a lot of solid fly balls, whereas he may actually be getting a good dose of easy popouts. And while groundballs are less likely to go for doubls and triples and never go over the wall, it's also true that air balls that don't go over the wall are a lot easier to defend. Lot's more errors on groundballs than flies, and it's not uncommon for groundball guys to give up a lot more unearned runs. Doesn't show on their ERA, but they are still real runs that cost games. But, it's something to watch for. Groundball stuff can also vary. Gallagher is kind of a weird case. At Peoria, he seemd a fairly flat, or fly-ball oriented guy. At Daytona and last year he was strongly groundball oriented. I was real happy about that, and at first hoped it meant he had a good slider going (early last year there was talk of reintegrating a slider into his mix) or that his fastball had some sink to it. This year, not much groundball oriented.

Atkins has been pretty strongly fly-ball oriented this year, and has been HR-prone throughout his career. So, I'm suspecting that just as BA's report may be not very accurate on it's negatives, I wonder if it isn't also baloney on the positive, the sinker. Not many sinkerballers who get as few groundouts as Mitch, at least not if their sinker is at all good. The other thing is that Atkins had shoulder trouble earlier this season, I think. Not sure how that may have affected him, how that might be affecting him now, or how that might affect him future.

Vitters is likely to spend a few weeks, minimum, after he signs. I believe the Cubs have their guys go through some orientation stuff for a while, especially HS kids. He's a very high draft choice. Agents don't so often sign them off two days after the draft. So he may well take till August to even sign. And he's only 17, so it's no big rush with him. If he signs in time to play some, I'd fully expect him to spend his main time this summer with Mesa. Often they jump a prospect to a higher league during the last two weeks of the season, just to experience it. Or, especially if the team above is going to have extra playoff games. That seems well possible for Boise, not so much for Peoria. Given how many college players they've drafted, they ought to be able to stock Boise pretty well. Especially if Rundle or Anderson contribute anything there. Of course, not sure that Boise will have much for pitching....

Potential hitting ability is hard to quantify. And certainly there have been enough Keltons and Brant Browns who were said to have beautiful strokes and be "pure hitters" who were weren't. But, I think "pure hitter" is a very desirable thing. Which if any scout can say who is or isn't, I don't trust that so well or trust how they do so. But, there are obvious components of hitting. a) How long is the stroke? (Getting harvey and Dopirak, with long strokes, and then thinking you'll be able to shorten them, I'm sure it sometimes works but not too super often. It's one of the reasons that I tend to be skeptical about tall hitters, especially HS ones.) b) Plate balance? c) Bat speed, to handle hard stuff, particularly inside. Can you get around on it like Sandberg could, and jerk the inside fastballs? Or, like Kieschnick, do you have to almost guess ahead of time, and if you're guessing outside but pitch comes inside half, you look silly? d) Stroke/quiet bat. This touches with balance, bat speed, and stroke length. But good hitters can often stay put long enough to actually see what's happening with the pitch, but still pull the trigger in intelligent response. Pure hitters have that ability. How do you quantify that or project it from facing HS pitchers to facing big-league velocity and movement? I don't know. It's not just coincidence that some guys can hit way, way better than others. If "pure hitter" is a cliche for those who have all the components, then there's nothing I want more than a "pure hitter". If "pure hitter" is covering only one or two aspects (pretty stroke versus batting practice pitchers, but lacks the mental/physical processing to really see, diagnose, and respond effectively to the speed and movement of big-league pitches, that's not the real thing). If Vitters really is a "pure hitter", and the scouts have that right, I'm very interested. I'd much prefer a "pure hitter" to a massive-power with great RF arm prospect like Harvey, who in retrospect clearly lacks the "pure hitter" tag. Pure hitting is very desirable. You can have all the Dopirak power in the world, but if you aren't a pure enough hitter to ever apply it against pro pitching, who cares? The ability to make good contact is essential to power. Given the reports on Vitter's size, bat speed, and power, if in fact he is a pure hitter who can make good contact high unusual regularity, I'd assume he'll not lack for slugging percentage or HR's. But, the problem is it's so difficult to correctly diagnose "pure hitter". I'd love to get one. But are the Cub scouts any better able to recognize it than when they thought Corey, Kelton, and Montanez were pure hitters? If Cubs do end up with Vitters, and he does prove to be a "pure hitter", I think he'll turn out very well. But, if they take him under the judgment that he's a "pure hitter", but that proves as ill-founded a judgment as with Kelton, Corey, and Montanez, he'll disappoint.

Price has thrown a heavy workload this spring and, obviously, is a pitcher. Were the Cubs to end up with him, how likely is it that he'd still have the arm that is so attractive now by the time he won his 10th game with the Cubs? And how likely is it that his arm/stuff would still be special four years after he made his big-league Cub debut? I'm not arguing that he shouldn't be the Cubs first choice, or Tampa's or KC's, for that matter. Just that pitchers are, well, pitchers. There's a pretty good shot that no matter how nice he looks now, once the Cubs would get their hands on him he might be good for a couple of good years before his arm is shot and he needs surgery or else needs to work with elite control because his arm will have degenerated to relatively average. We got zero effective, healthy years out of Brownlie, Blasko, hagerty, Grant Johnson, or Pawelek. We got two healthy, really effective years out of Prior in 02-03, then another couple of somewhat productive but not elite years in 04-05. We got several productive years out of Wood, but none in which he was healthy all year and super-great all year. Zambrano we got most of 5 pretty good years, in which he was pretty healthy and pretty effective (02-06). There are some pitchers whose stuff is still special 4-5 years after their big-league debut. But, there are probably more whose arm falls apart before they ever make their big-league debut. Price is a nice target. But, there is a reasonable chance even with him that he won't be that great for a little while, that he won't be great ever, and that if he does become great for a while, that he won't stay great for a very long while. But, it may also be well worth it to draft him, in hopes that you get a couple of premium years out of him and that would be well worth it.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/644343.html Confirms the Latham and Rosa signings, with some scouting comments by Wilken. On mlb's draft listing last year, Rosa listed at 6'2" 180, but Wilken says he's 6'4" 210 now. Profiles as a possible power prospect. I got the sense Wilken hopes he might be able to stick at 3B, but may not have enough arm and may likely end up in left. He profiled Latham as a guy who sometimes touches 88 and as high as 93, with an erratic slider on a good day. Sounds like for him to make it, the slider would need to become his out pitch and hopefully his fastball would be able to become consistently average.

Vinestal, I honestly don't remember the colored ball stuff. My info was probably largely BA based, and Meph's little BA report probably capsulizes it well. My recall of the reports were that he was allegedly a great athlete ("he can pitch as well as hit!"), the monster power potential, the notion that at least for a while Tampa had considered him for #1, the great throwing arm, the injury, the formerly good speed, the defensive potential. I guess my recall was that "pure hitter" or "pure contact hitter" or "safe pick" were not among the first things usually said. Meph copied the BA note. The best thing they could say about his pure hitting is that a scout preferred him to a HS teammate who was a nice Juco prospect. And who we subsequently know hasn't been a very pure hitter either. There are hundreds of prospects for this draft where a scout can say he's the purest hitter on his HS or college team. Every team has to have one of those. I think that's a lesser claim than for a scout to say that he's the best hitter he's ever seen. Especially a Cal scout, in an area where good prospects are common. That said, every scout has his own opinion. And a kid's team coach is obviously going to pass along the most favorable ones to a hype-em-up article about the kid. Maybe this is a 1st year scout. Maybe the HS coach is hyperbolizing what the scout actually said. Maybe this is one of those dumb scouts who can't recognize a real hitter if he saw one. Maybe if you asked 50 other scouts, none would share that view. And, certainly regardless of what the scouts say now, the guy could still be a bad-pitch-recognition hacker 3 years from now. I'm just saying that IMO, the Harvey stuff was more about the unmatched power and outfield/arm potential, not about the ability to put the bat on moving pitches. The vitters stuff seems to be relatively more focused on his pure hitting ability. Given that it's a much stronger draft pool and it's 3 picks higher, I'd think the odds of Vitters going Harvey are a lot lower than with the original Harvey. But certainly there is that chance. I just don't think that it's as high. Immediately after taking Harvey, the Cubs said that he'd need a lot of time and would be a slow-tracker. I think that was as obvious a statement that he wasn't a refined pure hitter or a good contact hitter as could be possible. His HS batting average wasn't very high. Low .300's, I think, his abbreviated senior season. Red Flags. Of course, that same applies to Vitters. The stats I saw had him only in the low .400's. Not sure that's all that exceptional or once-in-a-lifetime. I also clearly recall a scouting report on Harvey that spring in which a scout spoke favorably about his long-term potential, but also said that he looked pretty sick in a recent game, and alluded to long swing and breaking-ball vulnerability and fishing for junk problems that have never resolved themselves. So i guess to me there were a lot of strong red lights on harvey from the start. That it didn't work out, was disappointing but not exactly astonishing. Patterson, different story. There, the uniformity of scouting enthusiasm and confidence was on a way different level from harvey.

Doetsch, who turns 24 this calendar year, has hit .260 with .665 OPS over the previous two years in A-ball. Would one scout comparing Vitters favorably to every hitter he's ever seen, be equivalent to another scout comparing Harvey favorably to Deutsch?

I remember hearing basicly the same things about Harvey when he was drafted. I never heard anything remotely like that regarding Harvey. I heard people say they'd never seen anybody hit the ball as hard or far as Harvey, in terms of power. But every report I recall noted that he was not close to being a polished hitter, and would need to make a lot of adjustments to his stroke. Cubs hoped he'd figure that out; oops. The "hand-eye coordination and uncanny ability to make adjustments", nobody said that about Harvey.

I agree that they'll stick with things as is for this weekend, and not decide until they have to. Marshall hasn't pitched much, but 5 innings is deeper than Guzman has been able to go thus far. So in terms of innings-eating potential, it's not clear he's at any disadvantage there. Nice to see him doing OK. And 5 K's isn't bad.

Thanks a ton for the link. Fun to get some feedback on those guys. When the farm was hot, it was the International guys who elevated it: Z, Cruz, Guzman, Beltran, Pie, Choi, Sanchez. Haven't been many good Latin guys hitting the states in the last 4-5 years. But now it looks like we've got some action again. Ceda by trade, obviously, but Castillo and Dolis at Peoria emerging as value guys. Robert Hernandez, Cabrera, and Acosta provide three significant, promising 18-year-old pitchers in short-season. One other guy I'm interested in is 3B Marwin Gonzalez, who played regularly at Mesa last and struggled but I think may look better this year with another year. those are the ones I know about. There could be others. (Harold Tolentino? Mario Mercedes? Martinez who AzPhil mentioned?) Would be awesome if some of these guys emerged as genuine value prospects.

Nathan, thanks for the input. I'm interested in some specific scouting impressions regarding the pitchers. 1. Of the rotation pitchers, how would you rank them in terms of pure velocity? My guess would be Ceda > Dolis > Pina > Muldowny > Albuquerque. How wrong am I? 2. Of the relievers, how would you rank them in terms of pure velocity? My guess would be Roquet > Castillo >>> Ruhlman, Maestri > Carillo, Papelbon. How far off would I be? 3. Of the rotation pitchers, how would you rank them in terms of breaking ball? My guess would be Muldowny >>> Ceda > Albuquerque > Dolis > Pina. 4. Of the relievers, how would you rank them in terms of breaking ball? My guess would be Ruhlman, Maestri, Papaelbon all pretty good > Carillo > Roquet >>>>>>>>> Castillo. 5. What could you share about Pina? You mentioned that he threw harder than his low-K rates would suggest, but given how few K's he gets, that could be anything from 85mph to 99 mph! I assume that if he is to someday become a major leaguer, he'll need to come up with a breaking pitch that he probably doesn't have much of now. But does he look like he does or perhaps projects to throw hard enough fastball to have good, perhaps even excellent big-league velocity? 6. Heredia has yet to get a hit, and has seemed to K more often than not. From what you saw in spring or what you see on the team, do you have any guesses on who might take over in center if/when heredia gets returned to extended spring training? Does Joseph look like he can handle CF, or might they want to get somebody from Mesa if Heredia can't get going?

The dope slap boosts his OPS up over .400, boosts his effective OBP (double-plays adjusted) up and perhaps over .200, and boosts his monster slugging percentage up and over .200. It's progress!

Thanks for those AZ Phil reports. Well, sounds like no Latin position players of note. But, Robert Hernandez turns up again as impressive. That's cool. Raisin, my friend is a friend of a Baltimore scout, who said that Ceda had the hard fastball and a wild but interesting slider. He compared him to Lee Smith, and seemed to think he had the menacing presence and the wildness to be rather scary as a closer. I have noticed before in reports from this scout that his definition of slider and curve doesn't seem to always be the same as what other sources use. So my guess is that his slider and your curve are likely the same pitch, different names or different days.

I'd also like to hear about his stuff. I know that Ceda, Castillo, and Dolis all throw very hard. And, all three are pretty wild. Physically, Ceda is the hulk of the bunch. Ceda has a slider of some promise. All three of Ceda, Castillo, and Dolis have been pretty wild. Not sure what if anything Dolis and Castillo have for non-fastball. But Pina and Albuquerque, I don't know what they've got. Carillo is a little guy who doesn't throw hard, even though he seems to have better control and maybe a breaking pitch. I'd love to hear Raisin's observations on them.

Some names not on any rosters: Hagerty (well, I hadn't seen him on a release list, and he's still kind of an interesting story), Billek (DL, released, extended spring training?), Holdzkom, Sammy Baez. I wonder who the 4th and 5th starters at Daytona will be. Petrick one of them, I hope. Blackford (sp?)? Santo? Estrada? Maybe even Grant Johnson? Unless something bizarrely good has happened with Grant johnson's arm, I'd have maybe prefered to keep Berg or Reinhard back at Daytona. Santo is probably the only one of those guys with any arm.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070402&content_id=199902&vkey=pr_t451&fext=.jsp&sid=t451 Iowa roster. The most interesting aspect is that Marmol will be in the rotation rather than in relief. I'm very pleased to see that. And I think it makes sense, given the problems that the Cubs may have. Opening day starter: your ace prospect JR Mathes! Joining Mathes in the rotation are Marmol and hot roster-fill prospects O'Malley, Les Walrond, and soft-tosser Randy Wells. Pen has Cherry, Rapada, and a handful of old veteran minor-league free agent roster-filler. That could be one really, really bad pitching staff. Heh, at one point I'd thought Iowa might have a really exciting rotation with Guzman, Marshall, Marmol, Mateo, Ryu, and Shaver being six valid major-league prospects, so many rotation pitchers that Marmol might logically be bumped to closer. Marmol, Rapada, Cherry, and Novoa making a dynamite bullpen too. But, that's the way it goes with injuries. Marshall on DL, Mateo on DL, Shaver on DL, Wood on DL which indirectly cost Iowa Guzman, and Ryu having gotten dumped (because we supposedly had too much high pitching?) So instead line it up with Mathes, O'Malley, and Walrond, and enjoy.

Still waiting on the Daytona roster. But with Tenn above and Peoria below announced, we can maybe do some guessing. A couple of surprises to me/comments on Tennessee's: 1. Hart in rotation. He's the dude we got for Bynum. I hadn't expected him for rotation, or realilzed that he was an ACC all-star in 2004.... as a 1B! 2. I'd expected Holdzkom there, not so. 3. I hadn't expected either Mueller or Reinhard there, and I'd hoped that Reinhard would be pitching rotation wherever he got assigned. Daytona speculation: I'd thought both Reinhard and Berg might be in the Daytona rotation derby. And that Mueller in the pen. So, who's left unaccounted for: Atkins, Samardz, and Taylor obviously for rotation, if healthy. Petrick, if healthy, whether bullpen or rotation. Yepez, Blackford, Billek, Estrada, and Grant Johnson all in the pool of possibilities, whether for rotation or bullpen. Odd that Billek, who was awful last year and hasn't shown any velocity or otherwise desirable stuff may still be in the mix. A friend who was at Fitch said that Billek was actually working with an "A" group (Atkins, Veal, Huseby, Petrick, Suarez, Castillo, all good-arm serious guys....) Guys who, if they are healthy and make it, are defintiely relief: Avery, Cooper, Holdzkom, Blevins. Reed, Muyco, and Rick in the catcher pool. Norwood 1B. Reynolds probably involved to some degree at 3B. Sammy Baez was included in BA's top 30, and isn't at Peoria. If he's healthy and still with the org, I'm guessing he might be at SS. Valdez maybe in left? Colvin in center. Assuming Baez, Daytona could have Baez, Colvin, and Reed from BA's top 30 list. With Samardz, Petrick, Atkins, and Taylor as four pitchers from the top-30.

Thanks, nice. The uncertainty about the rotation stuff is interesting, and perhaps sensible. A lot of these guys are so young and so inexperienced and have such limited track record of successs, and spring training is so short, it probably doesn't make a ton of sense to decide who is or isn't starting. And, with a lot of young pitchers and young arms, the prospect of keeping innings and pitch counts under control also makes sense. Often in short-season, everybody gets to start some and there isn't necessarily well-defined rotation. Perhaps this may be like that. And, if Pawelek is in that mix, it doesn't necessarily reflect that he won't be starting or that he or his arm are going bust. Maybe he's just fine, and he'll start, pitch well, and keep starting. I would think that whomever is the pitching coach, he better be pretty sharp. He's going to be working with a lot of pitchers who aren't exactly locked in. A lot of guys who are still impressionable and changeable and teachable.

Jon, why do you think Pawelek's arm being stretched out should be at issue? I hadn't read of any injuries or reported physical problems with his arm. Do you know something that hasn't been reported, or perhaps something that is not at liberty for public disclosure? Bruno, I agree with Cal. Of course there are reasons for Pawelek not being an obvious rotation guy. It's the reasons that are more of concern than the wisdom of the decision-making. Chief, thanks a lot for the list. That could be an interesting team. Some disappointments to me; I'd hoped that dudes like Pawelek and Huseby and Renshaw might look so dynamic in camp that they'd make full-A rotation. And I'd hoped that guys like Lopez and Rundle and Clevenger would look so great that they'd command a full-season debut. And I'd hoped that Carter would look so super that he'd get a promotion, too, and that Lansford might jump right up to A+. But, great that colvin did, and Samardz. (The day he signed, I'd assumed Samardz would be Peoria.) So, can't have every unrealistic pie-in-the-sky hope. There are some interesting things. Pina hasn't pitched very well; that he's still in the rotation mix is a hopeful indicator that he's maybe got more arm than his past stats might indicate. I certainly hadn't expected that wild-man recent-convert Dolis would be jumping up to full-season, and if so I might have thought a throw-hard-in-relief rotation spot might be more likely than emerging directly into rotation. That he is jumping up to full-season and is in the rotation is exciting, and suggests he may have had a dynamic winter to step up. Hopefully he'll emerge as somebody to get excited about. Albuquerque hasn't done much in Mesa, and has had injuries, after at one point getting some Fleita hype. Would be neat if somebody from the Albuquerque, Castillo, Carillo type class of Latin pitchers emerged as value. One surprise that's not on that list is Lopez, the OF in the Ryu trade that Wilken paid 3rd round money for in 05. I'd figured he'd normally be at Peoria. If indeed he's not, that probably means he's either hurt or else has looked not-too-impressive this spring. O well, with his super-Harvey K-rate he was a pretty long shot anyway. With Huseby, Rundle, Anderson, Clevenger, and Robert Hernandez, Boise could have a pretty good nucleus. And Suarez at Mesa could be a good first piece there, too. The Dominican team last year didn't win many, but had a core of your, tall, 17-year-old pitchers who did well. So there's a chance that Suarez and some of them will give Mesa an excellent pitching nucleus. The Dominican team as usual had no hitting, so Mesa isn't likely to have (m)any player prospects outside of new draftees.

Tennessee looks to have interesting pitching. The one name that surprised me, other than Hart in rotation, was Greg Reinhart in relief. I'd guessed him to be in daytona's staff. Boise is looking like it could be pretty good. Rundle, Anderson, Huseby, Robert Hernandez, that's possibly a rather good nucleus.

Disappointing that Harvey, Fuld, Shaver, Phelps, and Pawelek are all unfit to start the season as starters. I'm sure we'll hear about other unfit guys as we go. If Pawelek is unfit two springs out of two, it doesn't speak well to the future health of his arm or his commitment or his career. Must be something wrong with one of those things.

I thought I'd start a thread for popping in info as the minor-league team rosters come out over the next couple of dyas. Pawelek is in Peoria's bullpen. Maybe he'll end up being a good reliever. But that can't be very encouraging about his career. Roquet as well at Peoria. http://www.pjstar.com/stories/040107/KEV_BCQBB4UM.077.php Berg and hart (ineffective 24-year-old Baltimore pickup from bynum)g both in Tennessee's rotation, along with Holliman and of course Gallagher and Veal. http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/smokies_baseball/article/0,1406,KNS_329_5456813,00.html Samardzija was announced yesterday as at Daytona, and since Colvin is obviously there as well, given that's been expected and that he's not at Peoria. http://www.daytonacubs.com/cgi-bin/dist/news.cgi?id=1

I'm not sure about this. First, it's not clear how much help this adjustment will make, if any. It's not as if he's missing RH bats suddenly after the shift. 2nd, he was in the different place on the mound last year, the Piniella way, and got wasted in the spring. Third, Angel has said the Piniella suggestion has gotten him back to where he used to stand. But that it was Maddux who told him to move to the middle. So, Piniella says stand on the 3B side, so you can pitch on the inside. Maddux told hiim to stand in the middle, so you can pitch to the outside. So, was Roth a dope to go with Maddux over Lou? I'm not sure. Seems to me that a lot of pithers are able to pitch to both sides, and if you can't it's a problem. Maddux thought Guz couldn't work the outside from Lou's position, Lou doesn't think Guz can work the inside from maddux's position. I dunno. He's probably going to need to come up with something so that he can work both inside AND outside, at the same time, from the same position on the mound. If he can't use both, he's only going to go so far. I'm not dissing Guzman. But I think it's maybe foolish to trash Rothschild as being too dumb to notice, when he may have been going along with the views of one of the brightest pitching analysts around in Maddux. I'm not sure being on Maddux's side necessarily makes Rothschild that dumb.

Fun to guess. 2005 guy = Albert Joseph, OF 2006 returners: Probably: Dylan Johnston (SS) Heredia (CF) The other four are probably from the following: a) one of the catchers (Lalli?) and or b) pitchers. Joel Santo, Angulo Jiminez, Jon Mueller, Roger Evenson, and Marco Carillo all pitched at Peoria last year. I'm guessing several of them will be on the roster this week, . Given that you mentioned the staff is heavily foreign born, probably at least a couple from Santo, Jiminez, and Carillo. Heh, given that you said "foreign born" but didn't say "Latin", I'll also guess that Maestri made it.