craig

1. Thanks for discussion. 1908, you're watching games, so I think you're qualitatively observing that Triantos is a relatively free swinger and swings at some bad balls. 2. I'm thinking this is one of the easiest and most correctible issues a hitter can make? I think a guy who can see the ball well, and hit the ball well, he's got an easier time adapting. Much easier adaptation to make than for a guy who just has trouble recognizing balls from strikes, or from hitting either one. (PCA has both of those problems; Caissie and Canario both have problems hitting strikes.). 3. Mo B has a 3% walk rate at Iowa. Is he making bad swing decisions? Maybe, maybe not.... 4. Walk rate isn't the best proxy for swing-decision. Chase-rate is better data than walk-rate data for measuring whether guy is swinging at an inappropriate number of bad balls? [Your eye-ball observation says yes, Triantos *IS* chasing too much, that's why I appreciate hearing your scouting observation!] 5. We know production declines in 2-strike counts, but is relatively good on 0-strike counts. Obviously swinging at first-pitch strikes, and hitting them, works against walk rate. 6. Without your observation that he chases too much, I'd have wondered if he's just kinda taken a swing-at-strikes approach, including on 1st-pitch strikes? With his contact-skill so good, how often will a 6.5% SwStr% guy get walked if he just recognizes all strikes, swings at most-and-only strikes, and hits them?

In that little clip, I thought Wiggins fastball looked pretty bouncy. Not sure he can control what it's doing, but it seemed to have pretty good life to me? Seemed kind of Ben-Brown-ish to me. If his fastball had way more life and action last pre-surg, he must have had a LOT back then.

Thanks!

What's info on Roberts? I saw a note on different board that while he's been scoreless, that his velocity is way down. But no idea how informed that is. What do you guys know about his velocity in recent outings?

No idea how his defense is doing, in terms of range or making difficult plays, etc.. But his error-rate is ~1/3 what he had last year, so that's good at elast. 2023: 15 errors in 55 games at 2nd, 153/15 assist/error ratio. 2024: 3 errors in 39 games at 2nd, 85/3 assist/error ratio. May not mean much, and Tennessee might have a lenient official scores, beats me. But to at least make the routine plays is still better than making errors.

Yeah, we'll see how that plays out. Thus far this "breakout" season, he's at 3 XBH in 45 AB, of his 16 hits only 3 are for XB (including the HR.). When >80% of hits are singles, that's kinda Madrigal. We'll see how it goes moving forward.

PCA rolling the 23/3 K/BB ratio thus far. Lots of pitchers would love to sustain ratios like that! .247 OBP, nothing particular fluky given his pretty normal BABIP. As wonderful as PCA's defense is, it's going to be tough to become a big-league starter if he can't get his OBP up at least near .300. Even Baez stayed north of .300 before Covid summer and trade season. Long season, of course, so reversion-to-mean has to somehow improve 32%/4% K/BB profile. At least, I hope so.....

Interesting, thanks. I admit being worst-third chase; worst quartile contact-in-zone; and worst quintile contact-overall.... that doesn't feel as worry-free for me!

Thanks Bertz, really interesting. This will sound like an idiot question, but when you're listing percentile, I want to make sure I'm tracking it correctly. In most situations in academia and baseball, high percentile is desirable. I want hard-hit percentile high, I want contact rate percentile high. For chase rate, is this what it says it is? Higher percentile means you chase more? So, 99th percentile would be the grossest chase-iest, 1st percentile would be the ideal, and 30th percentile is good, because it means 2/3 of big-leaguers chase more than Caissie? Or is the "percentile" meaning adjusted so as to make a high-percentile desirable, so 30th percentile isn't desirable? Being bottom quartile for in-zone contact, that seems kinda yucky and worrisome to me. But you don't seem to mind?

Nice opener for Franklin, 4 perfect innings, 4K/0BB, only 41P. 41P/27strikes.

Arias got through his first inning on 15 pitches, 1-2-3.

Would love for some of the Latin pitchers to emerge, that would be great. Tom, did Bello have surgery last season, or some lesser injury? Erian Hernandez was really good, too. 5K in 2.1 IP.

Keep track as season progresses for how many of Shaw's HR's are RF shots.

Edwards! That's fun. Not to pull the plug too soon, but I'm thinking having an alternative to Almonte might be nice.

Yeah, Iowa is pretty roster-fill oriented. Tennessee is really stacked with a lot of name prospects. I wonder if they kinda like the idea of keeping a super-team together, and have a bunch of those guys stay together and win together? A lineup with Ballesteros, McGeary, Triantos, Shaw, Murray, Caissie, Franklin, Alcantara, that could be really stacked.

Not sure how final or current this is, but Tennessee roster. https://www.milb.com/tennessee/roster It looks maybe not final? Has about 20 pitchers. Most of the interesting names are as expected. Of note to me: Arias is listed. I'd wondered if he'd return to South Bend, given his 5.8 ERA and 1.7 WHIP. Burl lists as "injured: full season". Jack Patterson is listed, without any such "injured" listing. Hunter Bigge is there, he's another guy I'd thought might be at Iowa.

Brennen is listed. Would guys in injured lists be listed, as "active"? Ethan Roberts and Brad Wieck are both listed. Would love it for those guys who have gone through such extended injuries if they both came back healthy and effective, and earned their way back to the major leagues. Already been mentioned that Caissie didn't make it. Or Shaw or Horton, obviously. Or BJ Murray, or McGeary. I'd expected Murray would make it. If Murray, Shaw, and Triantos are all at AA, I wonder how 3B will get divvied up? I admit I'd hoped Murray would get full-time Iowa, Shaw full-time Tennessee, and they'd just sent Triantos back to South bend to work full-time on 3B defense, until Shaw either earned a promotion or decisively played his way off of 3rd.

I think Keegan is an easy de-roster option, if they need a 40-man spot.

AZ Phil:

Tom, to go back to the Rivera discussion. He got $725K, so obviously we shouldn't assume stardom. But that's more than guys like Sanders, Hope, Carico, Rosario, Melendez; Birdsell; Franklin; Luke Little, all guys drafted with hopes that they'd turn into major league contributors. Definitely drafted for more than minor-league roster-fill. 1908, my impression is that his defense is very good. Good enough for big-league SS, or 2B, or 3B. *IF* he can hit enough to be a major leaguer, his defense will be an asset, especially if serving in a utility role. So yeah, Tom, as you said he was and should be viewed as a prospect. Might become a major leaguer, but no compelling expectation that he should become an excellent one. *IF* he was to turn into a good big-league utility guy, but never an asset starter, that would hardly profile as a "fail" pick. And if he never reaches the majors at all, most 3rd-rounders or sub-million guys never do. I do think old senior-signs are especially vulnerable to "weeper". Rivera will turn 24 before the World Series. Teen picks like Paciola, Rosario, Melendez, they get a couple of years to try to figure it out. But if Rivera can't hit this year, he won't get much leash to remain viewed as a prospect.

Nice discussion here, guys. Interesting to read your thoughts and names. As mentioned, a lot of names have already been suggested, so kinda hard to come up with new. But: Bats: Sleeper: Kalmer Keeper: Vasquez Weeper: McGeary Pitchers: Sleeper: Sanders, Koen Moreno, Hunter Bigge Keeper: Luis Rujano, Birdsell Weeper: Nobody! Everybody is going to thrive and improve!!!! It's the Cubs!

I don't know what he'll become, and your underslot reasoning is excellent. But I do think from the Cubs view, getting a ML prospect with a 3rd round $725K guy is definitely their purpose. Don't think they are spending $725K and 3rd rounder to get Levi Jordan organizational guys. Who knows what he'll turn into, I surely don't. But pretty sure they thought his senior-year hitting had a chance to reflect a guy who'll hit as a pro.

Oops! My apology, and my very bad error! I was looking bbcube, but the 34% was his teensy-sample Low-minors states. He was 23%, 24%, and 25% during his 3 college seasons https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/232980/

Carico K% in college: 12%. Trice 34% Trice faced better pitching for sure, but not what he'll see consistently in pros. Most high-K guys in college have contact problems in pros. Many guys who do not have contact problems in college will in the pros, so it's not like Carico is safe either. We'll see.