craig

Long will be an interesting one. He's barely one year into his pro career, so I think there is considerable opportunity for development. And as a guy who looks productive, I think that should increase organizational interest in developing positional flexibility. If limited to 1B/PH/DH, I think that's a limited role. I'd love to see him go to AFL or some place developmental, and give him a bunch of LF/3B action. No, he's not going to play left like Happ, and even Wisdom-level OF probably is beyond his scope. But man I'd love to at least give his a shot at some diversification, and some chance to become a bench guy with some flexibility. At 15HR, he's only a couple behind Shaw and Moises (17 and 18), and he obviously produced more HR power than popular prospect Alcantra (11).

Other than Shaw, guys kinda always look great on HR- swings. The balance and weight-shift never looks bad on HR's. (shaw, with his huge leg-kick, is somewhat unusual in that he still looks kinda yucky even on some HR's...). But, my ramble is that maybe Shaw looks hopelessly off-balance and out-of-time on some non-HR swings. But many, it looks like he has almost no leg kick, and a pretty short stride. Doesn't look like he needs to guess or commit very early at all, and while his follow-through seems to get excellent extension, his actual swing from load-to-contact seems pretty quick and compact? A couple days ago he reached and lifted a low breaking ball. But several of these recent ones seem to be on top-of-zone pitches. I think a lot of the 2016-era Cubs struggled with top-of-zone pitches; they liked to lift the low ones. In the modern game with so much top-of-zone pitching, I wonder if Smith has a good stroke for top-of-zone pitches, and he might be a good fit?

jose Escobar with a triple. Was he a $$ signing? Or not really.

Like those Melendez notes. Hope he develops and that K's don't kill.

Are you guys pretty strong Franklin fans? On another board I've seen his name suggested as a 40-man possibility, maybe AZ Phil too. And I know earlier in the summer he had a good month. Don't think I'd consider giving him a 40-man spot, myself.

Long's season-composite is .288-.386-.471-.857, 75K/295AB.

As Tiger mentioned, that the Cubs only catch Trice as a 3rd catcher once a week is the yellow flag.

I wonder if that isn't a bit misrepresentative? Aren't the "qualified" kinda those who haven't been promoted soon enough to drop off the "qualified" list? In other words, might there not be another dozen guys (like Moises) who were slugging better than Kevin, better enough to get promoted, so they've dropped off the qualified list?

Tom, your guy Trice is now up to 6 games at catcher at Myrtle. In those Myrtle games caught: 6 games 2 errors 3 passed balls 17 SB 3 CS. It's a development thing, so perhaps in a couple of years he'll show a lot of improvement. But the early results don't indicate a defensive prodigy. And the fact that they only catch him one a week makes me wonder if there interest in him as a big-league catcher isn't perhaps kinda modest? Seems kinda like 3rd-catcher status.

Kinda yes, kinda no. Yes: Cameron is a great example of how sometimes a prospect explodes and turns into a really good big-league hitter. That's the hope, that Alcantara will be one of those rare exceptions of a guy who eventually explodes, and becomes better at hitting big-league pitching than minor-league pitching. It's possible. Sammy Sosa's another type example. 10HR for Cubs age 22; age 24 he hit 33; age 29 up to 66. At age 19 in minors, he hit only 9 in >500AB; and at age 20 he hit only 8. So yeah, sometimes guys hit lots more in majors than minors. Kinda no: For every Cameron or Sosa who hits and slugs way better in majors than in AA, aren't there about 99 others who hit less? Camerons happen, so I hope the same for Kevin. I hope he's the next Cameron, and maybe the next Sosa. But I kinda feel like that kind of transformation is relatively rare and rather improbable. Plus we're the Cubs. Things like that don't happen for our hitters.

Thanks. Cameron is a fun wannabe dream-the-moon dream comp. That's kinda where the HR-power is kinda my question? Cameron was an asset offensive player, in part because he hit ≥20 HR's most seasons. Off major-league pitchers. Singles-hitter Kevin is poking along at 9 HR. Cameron had 8 seasons with ≥20 HR, including a 30-HR season, and two more at 18 or 19. Cameron had an 11-straight seasons with composite slugging north of .450, and never below .431 during those 11 seasons, with 50-70 XBH during each of those 11 seasons. Singles-hitter Kevin has racked up 22 XBH, and it's August. I wonder what the metrics show for Kevin in CF? Like, when we trade him, will somebody view him as a long-term defensive-asset CF? Or might he be a little more like Jason Heyward, he'll be great defender in RF, but in center maybe kinda big-league average, or worse? A lot of REALLY good defensive CF in the majors, so being average relative to that crowd is really difficult, and being asset relative to that crowd is really difficult. I guess I kinda wonder whether perhaps a nice comp for Kevin might be Cubs-era Jason Heyward, maybe through his Covid season? it's hard to get the last two seasons of Heyward out of my memory, so perhaps that's a bad comp because I can't get away from his last auto-out season. But during the 2017-18-19-20 four seasons, he had OPS .715-.731-.772-..848 (the last was the short Covid summer.). >2-WAR guy during those seasons? Had 11 and 21-HR seasons in there, which might compare to Kevin's 9HR-in-august pace. Slugged around .420 over those four seasons, a little better than singles-hitter-Kevin is doing. Maybe Alcantara like Heyward could be a gold-glove in RF? But yeah, adding some HR-production and getting more doubles and triples would really help Kevin in the future. Would be fun to have him improve.

What do you guys see in terms of power potential for Alcantara? It's August and he's got only 9 HR. He's been a predominantly singles hitter this season, 57 singles, 9-0-13 HR-3B-2B. .409 slug.

I think he gets a reward/courtesy callup. Imagine over-under on big-league AB is 10: I'll take the under! Don't think they'll play him hardly at all, or create enough sample size to make any conclusions. Last year PCA got 19 hitless PA; and we said "draw no conclusions, too small a sample." Caissie will get less, and likewise be "draw no conclusions." Variable number of AB's might depend on injuries; on when they get eliminated; and on how many of their games are against eliminated teams versus teams still fighting for playoffs. I think they see off-field advantages in giving a guy a courtesy callup, even if they don't play him. He gets to experience the big-league team and clubhouse. He gets to hang with the major-leaguers. He gets to work with the coaches and get to know them a little better. He gets to see the preparation and professionalism that big-leaguers have. Hoyer is huge on soft stuff like that, so I think he'll give Caissie that.

Yeah, I noticed the 3B too. I just checked his record, he's 41/15/9 between 1B/LF/3B this year. I imagine the more a kid hits, the greater the interest in finding him positions to play. Hope he gets a lot more 3B and LF opportunity. Will be interesting to see how his hitting progresses. Obviously he's had a hot stretch for Tenn, and he's overdue for a cold stretch. One of the skills is to extend the hot and be able get out of slumps fast.

When I did my numbers, I came up 2K shy, and I was doing some roundoffs. My guess is Southisene is right on the dot for $1M.

Really dumb questions. So, 90th percentile exit velocity, that means that 10% of their in-play contact was ≥107mph, correct? That doesn't filter between air versus ground contact, correct? A sharp DP grounder, that will still be included, yes? But it does filter out K's, correct? Can EV for short grounders be measured effectively? If guy takes a big swing and hits a ball that hits grass 10 feet from plate, can those still get measured accurately by the technology? Or is a variably longer flight-in-air required to measure it? Is it is general that if a ball hits ground <50 feet from plate, that those will just never have high EV anyway? Anything on track to hit ground <50 feet will not have been barreled well enough? How many Cubs would have big-league 90th percentile EV > 107? 90th percentile is a nice common point. Do you think the relative rankings would shift at all, for example, if it was EV > 101 instead of 107? Or 80th percentile instead of 90th? I'm assuming the same guys would rank favorably regardless? When we look at minor leaguers, how does this change with level? Like, might the same guy who had 10% of his contact ≥107 in A- drop that to 5% and 2% as he moves up to A+ and AA pitching?

Admit I've kinda given up on Palencia. Fun to have great velocity, but what good does it do? Seems useless for getting outs or throwing the occasional shutout innings? His ERA has been high at every stop, Only ERA's below 4 were back at Myrtle (3.74) and South Bend (3.94). WHIP is always high. Don't really see any hint of progress.

Will be interesting to see how they split that >$900 discretionary up between Southisene and lovich, (and maybe Mangus.) I've seen snippets of quotes from Kantro on a bunch of the picks, Lovich included. But I don't think I've read what he said, if anything, about Southisene. I wonder how they project him? Just a really good contact-hitter/fielder? Perhaps a Hoerner-type wannabe?

I just looked at Trice's stats. He's caught 8 games, with 3 errors, 3 passed balls, and 25 stolen bases. I wonder if that's just typical stolen-base attempt rate in low A?

For Lovich, I'd kinda think that a big-time program like Arkansas might not be a great fit. If a guy is too skinny and needs physical development, would he get regular playing time as a freshman? If he's a projection pitcher with mid-80's velocity now, would he get innings at Arkansas? Seems to me that a under-developed guy is better served either in pros. Or else at a less competitive college where he can play a lot, and then maybe transfer to a power school after he's developed and proved himself.

Last year was the first year that Kantro saved more than $85K for 3rd-day overslot. Went $250 over on Zyhir Hope. Two years ago, he took two slot guys before going overslot in round 13 (Rujano). Three years ago, he didn't overslot till pick 18 (Hambley). So, not sure what to expect strategy-wise. 2021 plan was to get the best slot guys he could for a while, then draft several over-slot guys late and hope to snag one of them. (Hambley, in that case.). Last year, they had cash for HOpe and knew they wanted him, and didn't mess around. This year, who knows?

Yeah, both big solid guys. Neither has long college hitting experience, Matthis having been mostly pitcher as freshman, and soph-eligible for Smith. Hopefully they've got a lot of improvement ahead. Both are righties.

First HR of the year. Howard had an improved June, stats-wise. .739 OPS. For June, 23 hits, 19 of them singles. HR is fun.

Has anybody heard anything about what Shaw's injury is?

Yeah, I wasn't trying to suggest that Ballesteros 3% means much, it's a limited sample. Just that walk-rate isn't a perfect proxy for decision-making. That he's been whacking lots of hard-hit balls with power suggests Ballesteros is not currently struggling with swing-decisions, even though walk-rate is vacant. This is maybe dumb/naive/old-fashioned, but I do wonder if some guys take too many pitches? Wait for a groove pitch in my heat-map; suddenly I'm sitting two-strike count and I'm toast. This can get worse in the majors; they throw fewer mistakes into my heat map, so I'm even less likely to get one. Swinging at and hitting strike one, that may not be good for walks; but it might be the best pitch you're going to get in a lot of AB? Maybe the reduction in walks is less cost than the gain in hits and power and slug? Maybe Moises elected to swing a little more aggressively, walk less, but hit harder, and that's helped his recent surge? Second, I wonder if developmentally, whether swinging at all strikes might actually be a good developmental objective? Even if they aren't all "pitches-you-can-really-drive"? Practice hitting strikes in all quadrants, and learn to hit them hard, or at least somewhat harder? Once in the majors, pitchers are really good at avoiding your heat maps, so perhaps part of minor-league hitting should involve trying to get warmer in my cold quadrants? Going to be a lot of big-league AB's where I don't see anything in my favorite heat-zones. I'm just rambling.