craig

If Crawford can sustain the .442 BABIP he's flashed this year, he's got a chance. Not real common for guys with >25% K-rates and 50K/0HR ratios to end up successful. He'd not be close to my top 30.

The "great defense" stuff is encouraging. Sickels had some favorable comment about his defense too, but I'd wondered if he actually had heard anything favorable. Last year, the word was great athlete and fast, so it was assumed he might play well defensively. But good speed does not make a great center fielder, and I admit when they left Na in center and put Szczur in left I wondered. I hope the favorable talk about his defense is real and is justified.

Nice to see him hit a hot streak, he'd seemed to be non-hot for a relatively long time. While the hot --> injury or promotion is funny joke, he was hot in April, and was up in the high .300's and the .900's OPS for a while, then obviously he chilled out. I was surprised he stayed so mediocre for such a long time. Usually guys have their highs and lows, and he seemed to be plugging along as a .700-OPS type for a longer than usual time, I'd expect more variation. Final composite includes both the highs and the lows, so will be interesting if he can extend his current high a little bit longer than he's been able to do before. As hitters mature, I think sometimes they get better at shortening and shallowing the lows, and extending the highs.

Yes. The Cubs paid him a lot, $750 K, like a high 2nd rounder. He was drafted as a projection pick, happens all the time, except he hasn't grown into any of his projection. He was young and skinny, and was starting with supposedly good control, high 80's velocity that sometimes got into low 90's, and OK breaking stuff. The projection was that he'd fill out, get faster, and sharpen his breaking stuff. That projection was some focusing from 2-way to pitcher only, but even more so based on normal physical projection/maturation. Unfortunately none of those projected things has happened. His fastball has not gotten any faster (and may be a little slower), and his breaking stuff hasn't gotten any sharper. He's basically the same stuff that he had as a college fresh/soph. Cubs drafted a bunch of projection guys this week. Gretzky is supposed to add thirty pounds and grow a bunch of power. Scott Taylor is projected. Schlect is projection. Dunston is projection. Brad Zimmer. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't.

Some notes from Wilken on Gretzky and brief notes on the Canadien catcher and LHP. Wilken clearly sees Gretzky as a talented and significant prospect, with 3B/corner-OF possibilities and with the potential to be a good power hitter. I've wanted some guys with the potential to become middle-of-the-order hitters. Obviously it's never likely with a 7th rounder. But while there has been some criticism in past that Wilken goes too much for up-the-middle athletes who lack power or middle-of-the-order potential, it seems that four of the first nine picks were guys who were drafted because they might possibly end up being middle-of-the-order type power hitters. Baez might perhaps stay at SS, although a lot of people don't seem to think so, but he's got the middle-of-the-order bat potential. Obviously Vogelbach is a corner guy picked for his power bat. Gretzky is obviously a corner and obviously picked for his bat/power potential; and of course the same applies for Schlecht at #9 Dunston (11) may be a true CF but might also be envisioned as a power-hitting guy eventually; Trey Martin (13) Brad Zimmer (23) and Weeks (29) are power corner prospects; and obviously Hoilman(19) and Shoulders (25) were picked purely for their power and are totally 1B only guys. So that's a lot of the 2nd-day guys who are picked with power in mind and are likely corner prospects. Including Dunston and Baez, that's 9 teenage power-potential corner prospects taken in the first two days. Quote: http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/2011-draft-52/475/ Reply #497

Kevin Levine-Flandrup: How much have you thought of the draft? Speaking with guys some say that they think about it all the time, others say that they are not thinking about it at all. Where do you stand in that spectrum? Shawon Dunston, Jr: I’m not going to lie – I think about it just about every day. It’s a hard process. Right now I’m excited about being committed to Vanderbilt, but if the situation is right for my family and me, and everything goes right and I feel comfortable signing, then I’ll sign. However, if it’s not I'm not going to be mad or upset because I’m going to be attending a great university and playing in one of the best conferences in college baseball, for one of the best teams in the country. So when I think about it now I view it as a win-win situation. If I get drafted and sign I get my career started early – that’s fine. If not, I get to go to school for three years, develop, mature, get bigger and stronger, and live the college life experience which is something I want to do. So I think about the draft, but I also think about going to school, and I’m ready for either one. -------- Doesn't sound ridiculously unsignable to me.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110608&content_id=20203006&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc I find it curious because it seems to loosely confirm what many have suspected for awhile, which was that Wilken and Co. had more restrictions on money, particularly with over-slots, than was publicly acknowledged. I don't recall any statement prior to this year that seemed to suggest things in as strong a term, although maybe I missed something. Anyhow, seems to bode well for our chances to land some of these kids. Thanks for catching and sharing that. Yes, that's pretty significant. I wonder how exactly that all played out. I know at convention, Wilken talked similarly, that Ricketts was very committed to spending more on draft and international. I recall discussing that with dave. But I wonder if there was further reinforcement even on the fly, as he mentioned with somebody like Dunston. We know that almost all of these teenage picks will require some overslot. But this is encouraging to hear that he's got some ability to pursue a fair number of them.

Really? If that was true, that would totally change the draft, and shift the population of minorleague baseball towards college and Latin players. (Depending on details, of course.) But most teenagers who sign do so via overslot. If the minors was limited to guys who would sign for slot, there would be hardly any teenagers who would sign after the 5th round. If you're limited to slot in rounds 6-50, the value isn't often large enough to offset the potential payoff of getting drafted in the high rounds. I'm looking at last year's Cub drafts, and despite dave's concerns about spending, most of the guys they signed were overslots. From spot 12 on, Reed Richardson Fitzgerald Geiger Harmon Beeler were all overslots. And of course so too were Golden, Szczur, and Wells that we know of. Looking at this draft, I assume that none of the teenagers after Lockhart in round 10 will sign for slot, nor of course vogelbach. I expect they'll sign at least fifteen of the teenagers drafted this week, but not more than six if that would sign if limited to slot. The whole texture and demographics of minor-league baseball would be a lot different if you don't have overslots populating short-season and ready to feed into A-ball. If the only draftable guys are college kids or high-round high-dollar teenagers, it will become a very different game.

Oh, it's on. I never saw Ernst pitch, but I did see that Cole Frenzel kid who went in the 7th round from Dickinson, N.D. Kyle, are you a Dakota guy?

47th round pick Ernst from Fargo ND had at least a couple of no-hitters this year, including in the state championship game on Saturday, after pitching two innings of relief to save the Friday night win. Maxed at 89 at perfect game showcase last summer, but mlb scouts reportedly have had him at 92-93 this spring, at least on occasion. North Dakota baseball isn't very good, he was 6-0 with a 0.6 ERA or something like that entering the state tournament. That's probably 3 earned runs allowed on the season.

I agree, Kirk with a fastball that's viewed as 85-88 looks like one kind of prospect, if we're told that he works at 90-92 and touches 95, he's on all of our top-10 lists. My guess is that he probably is at least in the 88-92 range, otherwise he probably wouldn't be doing so well. Hard to be as consistently effective as he's been if he's living on a curveball. With Whitenack, there were doubts, then suddenly we were told 91-94 and everybody jumped on. My guess is that if Bruce asks Fleita, and reports that Kirk is now consistently in the 90-93 range, that he'll be easily a consensus top-10 guy.

I know that we as fans usually want one or two monster superslot picks, what Maples would be in the incredibly unlikely event that we actually paid what he asked for. Or like Samardz, Huseby, and Szczur involved. But I think that there are a lot of HS/JC type teenagers who are willing to sign for 6th round type money. Last year we did the big superslots on Szczur and Ben Wells. But we also signed about ten guys to "teenage slot" deals, the kind of deal that an 8th rounder or whatever would get, that stuff in the $120K and higher range. Greathouse, Kurcz, Reed, Richardson, Hartman, Fitzgerald, Geiger, Harman, and Beeler, all of those guys were at least $120K, which I think is formally slot for 7th or 8th round. Likewise McNutt, Struck, Mincone, Burruel, Fitzgerald were all in that area two years ago. So my guess is that after paying Vogelbach superslot and paying modest HS overslots on other guys in the top ten, that if they have $3-4 million to spend after that, it's more likely to sign fifteen guys at $200K than to spend the same $3 million on Maples. If you have 15 teenagers who you view as 8th-round type talents, guys who might project into excellence, my guess is that's the direction they plan to go. If Dunston looks great and will sign for $450, and Maples looks like a stud and will sign for $1.5, maybe they'll do that to or instead, who knows.

2.Vogelbach, Daniel Bishop Verot HS (FL) 1B L/R 6'00" 250 1992-12-17 18 HS "We made a decision of what it would be worth not to go to college," said father Dan Vogelbach, whose son received a scholarship to attend the University of Florida. "We were not going to deviate, so we agreed not to go lower." Before the draft, the Vogelbachs wrote down the bonus amount they wanted, sent it to the Major League Scouting Bureau and asked that it be given to every team. Dan Vogelbach said what they asked for is a little higher than what past picks at No. 68 averaged. Those ranged from $477,000 to $1.1 million the past five years. "Four teams said it was an extremely fair number," Dan Vogelbach said. 3.DeVoss, Ezekiel Miami CF S/R 5'10" 175 1990-07-17 20 SO "The Cubs are going to be calling back in the next couple of days to discuss things," DeVoss told the Miami Herald. "I don't intend on having it be something that lasts all summer. I'll decide in the next week or two. At this point, it's really 50-50. "I would like to sign, but I wouldn't have any problem with coming back next year. 5.Scott, Tayler Notre Dame HS (AZ) RHP R/R 6'03" 165 1992-06-01 19 HS Among the Arizona recruiting class, Tayler Scott, a pitcher from Scottsdale Notre Dame, was selected in the fifth round by the Chicago Cubs. He told the Arizona Republic that he will sign a pro contract as he pursues his dream of being the first South African to reach the major leagues. 7.Gretzky, Trevor Oaks Christian HS (CA) 1B L/L 6'04" 190 1992-09-14 18 HS The 6-foot-4, 190-pound Gretzky has committed to San Diego State, but probably won't play for the Tony Gwynn-led Aztecs. "It's still early, but I want to start my pro career as soon as possible," Gretzky said. "If it works out, great. But I am going to talk to (the Cubs) in the next couple of days and see. Nothing is set in stone yet." 9.Schlecht, Garrett Waterloo HS (IL) RF L/L 6'02" 1993-02-15 18 HS "I always said when I was little that I wanted to be a professional baseball player and I finally earned my spot," he said. "I worked really hard at a it and it's a dream come true." Summary: No idea on Zych, but sounds like Vogelbach will require superslot over a million, but the Cubs knew that and are prepared to pay. Sure safe superslot, the only question is how much. Otherwise, it seems like basically all of the first ten picks will be signable. Gretzky, Taylor, Schlecht, they all sound like they'll sign assuming the Cubs give the typical HS slot prices (which are of course "overslot" relative to college players in the same rounds.) I assume Lockhart will be signable, since his Dad works for them so they should have a pretty clear grip on what the family expects, and since he's not that high-ceiling a guy they wouldn't pick him that high if they expected signability to be real challenging. No idea on the Puerto Rican catcher, and last year we whiffed on Puerto Rican DeJesus. But Rosario didn't sound like that amazing of a prospect, so you don't spend 6th pick on a guy unless you're either pretty confident he'll sign or unless you think he's so spectacular that he's worth gambling on. Maybe the latter applies, but if not, then they probably figure he's signable. It's after the first ten rounds that things get dicey, with Dunston and Maples especially. 23.Zimmer, Bradley La Jolla HS (CA) CF L/R 6'04" 185 1992-11-27 18 HS ..Both Zimmer boys value education, which for Bradley, is one reason why he wants to play in college. He knows that if not drafted high enough, it might not be worth it to him to miss out on his education. “I feel like I would be missing a chapter in my life,” Bradley said. “I have such a good offer there, my brother is there and I would love to play with him again.” The higher a player is drafted, the more money he can get with a contract and a signing bonus. Bradley is not sure where he will get drafted, but he thinks somewhere in the first 10 rounds. Note: Obviously he's not signing for 23rd round slot. But if he's thinking top 10 rounds, if you pay him 8th round HS slot it sounds like he might be signable. So I'm figuring the standard $120-200K HS slot might get fairly close. 25.Shoulders, Roderick State College of Florida Manatee - Sarasota 1B L/R 6'02" 225 1991-09-26 19 J1 He hopes to meet with Cubs officials soon to discuss a potential deal, though he added his draft position certainly wasn't what he was hoping for. "As of right now I still don't know what's going on, but I doubt they want to give me what I want that late, drafting me that late in the draft. But there's no telling," said Shoulders, who spent this past season at State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota. "They could do it; they could not. But worse comes to worst, which it isn't a bad thing, I go to USF. But I love that place, so it's not a bad thing to go there. Right now I feel I'm in a great situation being 19 years old with two great choices to pick from." Note: again, sounds to me like if you offer 10th round money, or teenage slot $120-250K, he'll be signable.

Thanks, Nick. Not sure how that gets him to #58, still doesn't sound that hot. But sounds like a guy you'd like to sign if he's reasonable.

Keith Law ranked him the 58th best prospect. Interesting. Perhaps reflects how widely opinions can vary. Just to read the BA report, a guy with speed that gets listed as "above average" and whose hitting potential is that he "could grow into gap power and be an average hitter", that doesn't seem like the 58th best prospect. Raw guy with gap power as his power ceiling and to become an average hitter being his hitting ceiling, that doesn't seem very exciting to me. For an outfielder, I'd think there are guys like that hanging around till round 50, usually. But, of course, every scout has his own opinions. So I assume that Law sees his speed (and CF potential) probably being better than just "above average", and I imagine projects the possibility of power that is greater than just gap power, and hitting that is potentially better than just average. I assume that if Wilken bothered to use a pick on him, knowing that he's going to be an expensive buyout, he must think the potential is there to perhaps be better than just a gap-power average hitter, too. BA: ...surprisingly raw. He is an above-average runner, which helps both on the bases and in center field..... As Dunston fills out, he could grow into gap power and be an average hitter. Scouts love his speed, passion for the game

During the draft, I noted that some of the draftniks were hoping for Dunston. The snapshot description made him seem as qualified for the 40th round as the 11th. Is he actually a serious pro prospect, better than your normal 11th rounder? And if so, what's the appeal. Power hitter? 5-tools type? Leadoff type? I didn't actually see much about his perceived baseball stuff other than family notes, and that he's really raw. Is he expected to be a big signability challenge? Probably most of them are.

Last year out of the first 30 picks, 19 were 20 or less, in other words HS, JC, or soph-eligible. So it's not that novel. But certainly WAY younger. I think Maples is a remotely long shot, unless he really pitches like a stud this summer and makes them feel like they're getting a true first rounder, AND he still reduces his demands. But basically any one of these 23 picks who are 20 or less are going to require serious money to sign, why else? They will all 20-or-under slot ($120-200K) minimum, and of course in many cases more (as was true with Wells and Szczur last year, and the guys in the first handful or rounds under any circumstances.

You've gotta love a 1B named "Shoulders".

I assume there is very little likelihood of signing Maples. If he's that good and teams thought he was a good value per his price, he'd have gone far earlier. So he's a draft-and-follow and talk pick, IMO. Right now, if anybody wanted to pay him what he was asking he'd have already gone, so right now the Cubs aren't willing to pay what he's asking. Three scenarios, after they watch him in whatever summer league he goes to. 1. He pitches great, and they decide that he's a good value as a top-ten type pick and they end up paying what he wants. Cubs become willing to pay much more than they are willing to pay now. 2. He pitches really well, so they make him a strong offer, but one still well below his price tag. Then he and his family decide if they are going to just stick on what they listed, or are going to reduce their demands. Maples becomes willing to sign for much less than he claims he is willing to sign for now. 3. He doesn't pitch well enough to get the Cubs up to his demands, and he and his Dad won't move off of his demands. No deal is made, or comes close. I expect that scenario 3 is by far the most likely, and that he won't sign. I think scenario 1, in which the Cubs pay the full demanded $3, is by far the most unlikely. Scenario 2 is where I hope it goes.

5 picks, all 20 or younger. Definitely not going for advanced older college players today, that's for sure.

Yes, I would say getting a 50th-best prospect at 129 could be very nice value, if BA knows anything. The kid will still be only 20 into August, so it's not like he's a college fossil with no time to get better.

Vogelbach sounds like he'll be a difficult sign. Interesting that the Cubs would have spent so high on a pick with those weight/1B limitations, who's still going to be that expensive/difficult to sign. I guess if he's going to be pretty pricey, and they knew that, and they took him anyway, they must like him a lot more than we might have expected.

Being only a sophomore, I wonder how polished he is. His stats profile changed completely between freshman and sophomore year. He hit 9 HR as a freshman, with 50K/211 AB, horrible. This year his BB/K went from 29BB/50K to 57BB/30K. Total reversal, really weird. With 57 walks plus 11 HBP, that was 68 free on-bases for only 215 AB. A .151 IsoD is kind of hard to get when it's built on a .340 average. Heh, I'll guess he gets with the Cubs, they encourage him to be aggressive, and he'll loses the walking, which is the one thing that stands out. I don't think the Campana analogy works very well. If Campana had a .150 IsoD, we'd totally love the guy. Second, Campana never hit 9 HR, even with metal. Obviously not a pick that's easy to love, but I guess we'll see how it works out. Some of the 3rd round type picks I liked the least (Theriot and was Barney 3rd or 4th?) have actually had some of the most big-league starts of any of the players drafted by the Cubs lately.

I've seen comments in two directions on Baez: One common view is that he's OK for SS now, but when he gets bigger as expected he'll probably need to move. Another evaluation has been that his frame is basically maxed out, so that he shouldn't grow into much more power than he has now. Either of those could end up being right, of course. Case 1: He's going to physically outgrow SS. In that case, their should be some power projection left. That could be nice. Case 2: He's as big as he's going to get, so it's foolish to project any future power growth. If so, then if he's currently fit for SS, then perhaps he'll be able to stay at SS (or 2B). That could also be nice, if he's a good pure hitter and already has pretty good power (for a middle infielder.)

I'm assuming Penalver is on DSL2 because Francisco Sanchez is on DSL1, otherwise don't see why such a highly touted kid is down on the B-squad. That said, the B-squad seems to have some high priced talent to start, with Penalver, Candelario, and Antonio Gonzalez there. Unless I'm mixing up which one is the B-squad? Penalver just turned 17 a couple of weeks ago. May 1994 birthday. 5 walks/0 K's hitting .333 thus far. 6-feet, so not a dinky guy.