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Everything posted by cheapseats

  1. cheapseats
    Nomar's worst year (of at least 100 atbats) was far better than Neifi's best. If Nomar sits when he gets back, Baker is a fool and deserves to be fired. Baker gets a lot of criticism for in-game moves, but his inability to assess talent is his worst problem.
  2. cheapseats
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php Based on the remaining schedule, the Astros are the team we should be rooting against. They have a 19% chance of winning the wild card, and the Cubs have a 17% chance. I don't believe the odds include allowances for injuries that may occur in the future, and of course the odds don't take into account acquisitions that may occur before the trade deadline.
  3. cheapseats
    And what was Aramis Ramirez doing for the first weeks of the season?? I believe Nomar has played in about 60 games since being acquired. I'm not going to get to wrapped up in NomarMania quite yet. In 43 games last year, playing hurt, he put up a .364 OBP and a .819 OPS. Those numbers look pretty good compared to Neifi's .286 and .666 (the OPS of the beast).
  4. cheapseats
    I generally don't like sacrifice bunts, but with the pitcher due up and no outs late in the game, this was an appropriate time for a sac bunt. But why send in Macias to do it? A lot of managers send in pitchers to sac bunt. Maddux would have been a fine choice, for example. Carlos is a decent bunter, too. Why waste a position player in this situation? We criticize Dusty for a lot of in-game decisions that aren't really that bad, but I hated sending Macias in to bunt.
  5. cheapseats
    The so-so play of Walker? He's one of the top 10 offensive second basemen in baseball. There are only a handful of guys who are having better offensive years. His defense is slightly below average, but not as much as some claim. Burnitz hasn't been a great offensive RF, but he's been fine, and has defense has been well above average. Perez has been an adequate backup, but he shouldn't be an everyday player. You're correct about CF and LF. Hairston's been fine, but I'd prefer to see him in his natural position or as a utility player. Hollandsworth is unacceptable in LF, but Baker will continue to play him most of the time instead of Murton, who should get a true shot. I would rather play Murton everyday instead of trading for Kearns, but Dusty believes in easing in rookies instead of treating them like any other players. See Bobby Cox for an example of how to use rookies properly.
  6. cheapseats
    Not a surprise that the Cubs picked him up. He has played a few games in CF, and Bruce Levine reported this morning that the Cubs would make a minor trade to get a backup outfielder. I am a little surprised that Dubois was involved, but he is probably better suited for the AL where he can DH if his defense isn't up to his club's standards.
  7. cheapseats
    Patterson's year was cut short in 2003, but he was playing better than Pierre at the time. Much better. Patterson had a higher VORP than Pierre in 2002 as well. Last year was easily Pierre's best. This year he has one of the lowest OBP of all leadoff men in baseball. His OBP is well below the NL average. If we're looking at him as a short-term fix, we're looking in the wrong place.
  8. cheapseats
    His OBP in June: .292. His numbers in July, for two weeks, have been respectable. Does that mean he's turning things around, or does that mean he's just on a hot streak? And he didn't get off to a bad start this year. He had a .343 OBP and a .407 SLG in April. He was wretched in May and June. I don't buy overworking or overtraining as a reason for his performance. Pierre isn't as bad as he's been this season, but he's probably not as good as he was in 2003. He would be an upgrade over Hairston, but according to VORP, his offense would probably be good for only one extra win over the course of 162 games. Why would we spend extra money and trade prospects away for a guy who might help us win one extra game over the course of a year? I'd rather spend on someone who'd make a bigger impact.
  9. cheapseats
    So on the one hand, you don't have faith that CPatt, who is struggling, can turn things around this season, but on the other hand, you do have faith that Juan Pierre, who is stuggling, will turn things around this year. :?
  10. cheapseats
    Jeter has a gold glove, so "gold glove caliber" doesn't mean much. According to the BP rate statistic, probably the most accurate way we currently have of measuring defense, Pierre is a slightly below average centerfielder over the course of his career. He has good range, but he doesn't take good paths to balls, and his arm is a noodle.
  11. cheapseats
    Like whom, for instance?? Just about anyone. Pierre's VORPr is just .100. There are about 30 CF's that are having better offensive years, and Pierre is a slightly below average defender. Guys I'd rather have than Pierre: Xavier Nady, David Dejesus, Grady Sizemore, Joey Gathright, Brady Clark, Kenny Lofton, Milton Bradley. And those are just centerfielders. Given the choice, I'd get a bat in leftfield before I'd worry about CF, so Pierre falls even further down the list of guys I'd like to see in a Cubs uni.
  12. cheapseats
    I wouldn't want Pierre even if he didn't cost us anything. Pierre of 2005 is not close to Pierre of 2004 - and Pierre of 2004 was far from perfect. As a rental, he wouldn't make much of a difference. He might not help at all. If we wanted to sign him for 2006 and beyond, he'd cost too much, and we could better use the money for players who would make more of an impact.
  13. cheapseats
    Thome's season is puzzling. Offensively, he was the 4th-best firstbaseman is baseball last year, behind only Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, and Sean Casey (yes, Sean Casey). In 03, he was behind only Carlos Delgado and Helton offensively. In 02, he was the best offensive 1B in MLB. I'm not sure what happened to him this year.
  14. cheapseats
    How often has he been wrong? He was first to report the Farnsworth trade, the Sosa trade, the Nomar trade, the Burnitz signing, the Corey Patterson demotion, the Ozzie Guillen contract extension (a week before the White Sox announced it), the Enrique Wilson signing :roll: A lot of guys got worked up in late May IIRC when he reported that a big trade was possible. The trade didn't happen, but not because Levine was making it up. Hendry was talking to the Mets and Marlins about a trade that would have involved Latroy and a Cubs hitter. Hendry decided to do a smaller deal (in terms of number of players, anyway) with the Giants. I'm pretty happy with how it turned out. I haven't been listening to ESPN1000 for a long time, but since I have been listening, I've come to know that Levine gets the stories first. I don't agree with his views on baseball very often - he defends Dusty too often and is in love with Corey's potential - but I've never heard him report conjecture as fact. Perhaps you have an example?
  15. cheapseats
    I'd much rather have whoever leads the league in groundouts to short or popouts to the catcher, but as far as I know, no one keeps stats on such things.
  16. cheapseats
    I'd take Beane in a second if he were available. We've seen what a math-oriented guy with a budget can do in Boston.
  17. cheapseats
    I guess he wouldn't have to clear waivers, because surely someone would snatch him up.
  18. cheapseats
    Bruce Levine on Mac, Jurko, and Harry at 6:00 tonight: Corey Patterson is on a short leash. If he doesn't do well over the next few days, he'll probably be sent to the minors to work on his swing. Such a move wouldn't be punishment; it would just be a chance for him to improve without the pressures of playing everyday in the wild-card race. Levine said Hendry has received low-ball offers for Patterson. Hendry doesn't intend to trade Patterson while his value is low, but if he did receive a strong offer he'd likely make the trade. No word on who would be called up to take his place. It didn't sound as if the Cubs were committed to sending Corey down - he's in the starting lineup tonight - but it does seem probable that it will happen. Also: the Cubs are in very serious talks with KC about MacDougal.
  19. cheapseats
    ESPN 1000 is reporting that the Cubs are most serious about Mike MacDougal. A trade is not imminent, but it would be MacDougal for minor leaguers.
  20. cheapseats
    If you were Pena, you would be sitting on a couch drinking beer right now. He resigned as manager in May.
  21. cheapseats
    For what it's worth, after the Latroy trade went down, Levine said that Hendry had talked to the Mets and the Marlins about a bigger trade that would have included Latroy and other Cubs players or prospects. Rather than do a bigger deal, Hendry decided on Williams and Aardsma. I'm just guessing, but I'd think a deal with the Mets would have included Looper and Floyd or Cameron. A Marlins deal might have included Encarnacion or Conine (ugh) and Mota or Jones.
  22. cheapseats
    Bruce Levine was just on Mac, Jurko, and Harry. He said the Cubs are looking at three relievers right now: Baez - Tampa Bay MacDougal - KC Affeldt - KC (he's on the DL right now) He also said the Cubs continue to talk to Colorado about P Wilson. Glendon Rusch is apparently available, although he probably wouldn't be involved in trades for any of the above players.
  23. cheapseats
    injured out for the season ...and probably not as good as he looked against the Cubs. Last year he was about the same offensively as Geoff Jenkins and Rondell White. That's not terrible, but we ought to get more for Patterson from a GM who believes in tools over stats.
  24. cheapseats
    Not to be argumentative, but as a Cubs fan, I'd hope you get Wells. Reggie Sanders is having a far better year than Wells. Larry Walker is having a better year than Wells. Edmonds is, of course, better than Wells. So Taguchi, when he gets to play, has been playing better than Wells. Right now Wells is playing like he did in 2002, not like he did in 03 and 04. Dunn and Mench would be offensive upgrades, but Wells would just be a nice bench player on this year's Cards.
  25. cheapseats
    What do you mean? Do you think the Holly we saw in June is the real Todd Hollandsworth? His numbers this season are almost exactly what they have been over his career. Yes, Holly was very good in June - just good enough to offset his horrible, horrible May. Another example: Neifi Perez. In April, we might have been saying, "It's a good thing they play the game on the field...," but since April, Neifi has been horrible, and now his season numbers almost perfectly match his career numbers. Your comment would certainly apply to Derrek Lee, though. I don't think anyone predicted such numbers for DLee before the season. He probably won't duplicate those numbers over the next 81 games, so there will be some regression to the mean, but Lee on the field has been better than (pre-season) Lee on paper.
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