bukie

On the plus side, it looks as if the Bears will have actual LBs on the field, so the defense should be as healthy as it's been all year. Not sure it's still actually good, but it's basically as good as it'll be with Edwards, Sewell, Johnson, Gordon, Wright, Byard and Brisker in the defensive backfield.

The Patriots are very good. Their schedule is a once in a century parade of bad teams. They get the AFC North on a down year, the NFC South on a typical year, the AFC East when Miami and the Jets are awful, and the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Going by ELO ratings, they play each of the 9 worst teams in the NFL, and 10 of the worst 11. Two of those are within the division, so that's 12 of the games on their schedule. They also play #18, #15 and #13, which leaves just 2 games against a team in the top 12 (Buffalo).

Bears' week to week DVOA: Pretty steady improvement from the Baltimore game on, just need to get the passing game clicking.

More flaws, maybe, but less serious flaws in my mind. Maybe it's a last year bias somewhat with the Chiefs, but all these teams I feel like have the ability to flip a switch yet and make the Super Bowl, whereas with teams like the Eagles, Broncos, Pats and even Bears, I just don't get that feeling yet (yes, I know the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year, but they looked unstoppable from the middle of the season on, and right now they just don't). It doesn't really matter a ton, though, I just like to group teams into tiers based on my confidence level in them, and then sort them in there to do rankings, makes it easier to compartmentalize for me.

Flip side is if the Bears can win, they keep the 1 seed, open up the division lead, and end the season with 3 of 4 at home.

Here's how I see the NFL after 13 weeks (with DEN-WAS and NE-NYG left to play): Tier 1: Super Bowl favorites 1. LA Rams (9-3) - Loss this week where they gave the ball away 3 times, but felt like they had lapped the field coming in, so still #1 2. Seattle Seahawks (9-3) - Dominated the Vikings, lost to the Rams in a close game where they gave the ball away 3 times, think LA's offense is slightly better. Tier 2: Super Bowl contenders 3. Buffalo Bills (8-4) - I know, they aren't leading their division and lost to NE. However, they're still the scarier team and would be my AFC favorite as of right now. Need the D to show a little more to make them a SB favorite. 4. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) - If they played every week like they played Detroit, they'd be top tier. Still prone to a stinker week, and can establish themselves as a favorite over a tough closing stretch. 5. Detroit Lions (7-5) - Still feels like this team should be better than it's been. Done playing the Packers, at least, could make a run to close the season to get into the playoffs on a scary note. 6. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) - Dominant team that just can't win close games this year. It's been wild, and if they can somehow sneak into the playoffs, tell me that they can't win the AFC. Tier 3: Good teams with a huge question to answer yet 7. Denver Broncos (9-2) - They're going to win the AFC West and beat the Chiefs. Still don't trust the offense. 8. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) - Speaking of offenses I don't trust. Defense has dominated in games not involving the Bears. 9. Houston Texans (7-5) - Ok, we've got a theme now. Dominant defense, shaky offense. Better of late, probably the best team in a surprisingly good AFC South. 10. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) - They do have wins over the Rams and Seahawks, the only team that can say that. Brock Purdy might be bad, though. CMC might be enough to carry them, though, but they don't have a dominant defense to lean on if Purdy digs them a hole. 11. New England Patriots (10-2) - Yes, it seems low considering how good Maye has looked. However, their schedule has been and will continue to be paper soft. They beat Buffalo, Tampa and the Panthers before Carolina woke up. Other than that they have losses to the Raiders and Steelers, and wins over Cleveland, Cincy, Miami, Atlanta, New York Jets, Titans and Saints. 12. Baltimore Ravens (6-6) - Inexplicable blowout loss to the Bengals, and Lamar Jackson looks lost. If he can find it, they'll win the incredibly weak AFC North and have looked really good since their bye week. 13. Chicago Bears (9-3) - They're getting better, and their defense is getting healthier and their offense is getting smoother. They're the first team to make Philly's defense look ordinary, which is something. Gotta beat the Packers to really move up a tier. 14. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) - Their defense is just OK, and their offense has dropped off a cliff from the first half of the season. Lost control of the division and may not make the playoffs at this rate. Tier 4: OK teams that might make the playoffs anyway 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) - They squeaked by the Cardinals to keep the division lead. Mayfield hasn't kept up the momentum from early in the year, and I'm not sure they scare anyone going into the playoffs. 16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) - They could still win the AFC North. They have a terrible pass defense and a bottom-third offense. Aaron Rodgers is both bad and hurt. 17. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) - Your new leader in the AFC South. Defense is very good, offense is very meh. Can they hold off the Colts and Texans? 18. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) - How is this team 8-4? They did beat the Chiefs and Broncos early in the year, and were blown out by the Commanders and Jaguars. They're just kind of okay everywhere, which might be enough to squeak into the playoffs? 19. Carolina Panthers (7-6) - Hey, they beat the Rams and are just a half game out of first. They were SO BAD in the first half of the season, though, I wonder if they have enough in them to rally to make the playoffs. 20. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) - They were a half of football away from being effectively eliminated last week, but have played their best 6 quarters of football in the last week to beat Philly and Kansas City. Still very bad defensively, but are good enough offensively to steal some wins (and already have!). Don't see them doing enough to pass enough NFC North/West teams to get a wildcard, but if Philly falls apart, who knows? Tier 5: Bad teams that are still trying 21. Miami Dolphins (5-7) - Beat the Bills after being left for dead, so they're just frisky enough to maybe steal one or two coming down the stretch here against the Pats or Bills. Not close to a playoff contender, though. 22. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) - Joe Burrow is back. Their defense is about the worst in history. In a very weak AFC North, that's just enough for them to be exciting to finish the season. 23. Atlanta Falcons (4-8) - If Drake London can get healthy enough to play, they could potentially still steal some wins. Don't think there's enough there to sneak into the playoffs at, like, 7-10 though. 24. New York Giants (2-10) - Just decimated by injuries, and they continue to blow 4th quarter leads. Still giving every team a game, though. 25. Cleveland Browns (3-9) - The defense is good, but if the offense is non-existent, they just get tired and run out of gas late in games. Tier 6: Bad teams that aren't trying, but probably won't get the #1 pick 26. Minnesota Vikings (4-8) - The bottom has fallen out. JJ is bad, and everyone else is worse. Jefferson is checked out and just trying to stay healthy . 27. Washington Commanders (3-8) - Jayden Daniels is broken. The defense is bad. Not sure where they'll go from here. 28. Arizona Cardinals (3-9) - Bad offense, disappointing defense, just no plan for success here. Tier 7: Race for the #1 pick 29. New York Jets (3-9) - Won today to likely take them out of the running, but traded away half their defense to make sure they stay in the hunt for #1. 30. New Orleans Saints (2-10) - Lost a close one to Miami today, have only cleared 20 points twice this season. 31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) - Geno Smith and Pete Carroll haven't made the difference. Scored 10 or fewer points in 5 games this year. 32. Tennessee Titans (1-11) - Cam Ward hasn't been bad, but...everyone else has been. At least before today the games had been closer lately.

I'll give Brosmer credit, he's doing his best to make JJ look like a good option.

So, the last two periods were progression to the mean?

I now have no idea who the top 10 teams in the NFL are. The Pats, Broncos and Bears have the best records, but the weakest schedules. The Rams had the #1 defense and #1 offense efficiency, but lost to the Panthers. The Panthers have beaten the Rams and Packers, but lost to the Cardinals and Saints. The Chiefs and Ravens are just 6-6 and may not even make the playoffs. The Bills have a great offense, but their defense can't stop anyone and are 2 games and a tiebreaker behind the Pats. The Packers lost to the Browns and tied the Cowboys. The Lions have a great point differential, but they're 7-5 and out of the top 7 right now in the NFC. The Seahawks lost to the Rams and squeaked by the Titans. The AFC South is a mess, the Colts offense may be broken under Daniel Jones, the Houston defense is almost singlehandedly keeping them in it, and the Jaguars are quietly in first place now. The Cowboys are suddenly hot offensively, but still have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. So there are like 15 teams that have an argument, and that doesn't include the 7-4 Chargers, who nobody really thinks are good but are 6th in the AFC playoff race right now despite losses to the Giants and Commanders. Or the 7-5 Bucs who had lost 4 of 5 before squeaking by the Cardinals at home. After that? There's a giant drop off and everyone below that is basically varying degrees of terrible.

The only thing that changed the last 4 days was Alabama won, so Ole Miss didn't make the SEC championship.

Bears 9-3, 1 seed in NFC Niners 9-4, 7 seed in NFC.

The ACC championship will be played between a team that lost 2 ACC games but only one counted, and a team that won a SOV tiebreaker because a California team beat a Texas team at the last second.

Cal scored with 40 seconds left, now SMU driving, at the Cal 40 with 16 seconds left.

Cal blew a 17 point 4th quarter lead to prevent the funniest outcome because of course they did, now they have 2 minutes left to preserve the hilarity.

Personally, I'm still quietly rooting for the "Duke wins the ACC but ends up not being the 4th or 5th highest rated conference champ and the ACC is completely shut out of the playoff hilariously" scenario.

I don't think a Miami team that the committee already ranked below ND will jump ND for beating a team ND just beat 2 weeks ago by basically the same margin, unless ND absolutely lays an egg tonight against Stanford.

Quick look at the CFP: At this point, I think you have to lock in Indiana and Ohio State at 1-2, regardless of the B1G championship result. Winner gets 1 and loser gets 2. 3 I'd probably give to Texas Tech if they win the Big 12 championship. Committee will probably give it to SEC champ with TT 4 but I'd reverse it. Maybe if Bama wins it they'd be 4, but I'm still hoping they just lose tonight. Oregon locks up a spot with a win today, along with Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Notre Dame. I'd personally have Georgia 4, Oregon 5, Ole Miss 6, A&M 7 and ND 8 (though I think ND is currently a better team than any of the SEC). Now, BYU probably should be next, but the committee likes OU and Bama better (thus I'm hoping both lose yet today), but only 2 of those 3 are sneaking in. ACC champ is 11 and G5 champ (North Texas) is 12.

The Ravens had won 5 straight before Thursday.

The more SEC I watch, the more convinced I am that there are no top 5 teams in that conference, but there are about 8 top 20 teams. Right now, the top 5 teams in some order are Indiana, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Oregon, and Notre Dame (which has 2 losses yes but right now are better than either team they lost to)

This win also gives the Bears the best conference record in the NFC at 6-2. Eagles are now 7-3, and Rams are 4-2 (they've played 5 AFC games and 6 NFC games thus far). They also now have the tiebreaker against the Eagles, should it come down to it.

Why did Ben Johnson take his shirt off in the locker room?

How do you score just 14 points against this Bengals defense? That's just unfathomable.

Well I finally feel okay about the secondary. Front seven, though...