bukie

Today's White Sox win clinches them a playoff spot. 2 down, 14 to go.

Today's White Sox-Twins game will basically decide the AL Central division, as if the Twins win, they win the season series and the tiebreaker between the teams, and would be within a game of first place. If the White Sox win, they tie the season series, would win the tiebreaker between the two based on divisional record, and be 3 games up in the division. I could see the Twins being extra motivated to win here, because if they do finish 2nd in the division, they line up perfectly for a first round playoff series with the Yankees yet again, and the Twins-Yankees playoff series haven't been very competitive of late.

Playoff update 9/17: Current AL seedings (magic #): 1. White Sox 32-17 (2) 2. Rays 31-18 (3) 3. Athletics 31-19 (3) 4. Twins 31-20 (3) 5. Yankees 28-21 (6) 6. Astros 24-25 (10) 7. Blue Jays 26-22 (8) 8. Indians 26-23 (8) ----------------------------- Outside looking in (elimination #): 9. Mariners 22-27 (10) 10. Orioles 22-27 (8) 11. Tigers 21-27 (8) 12. Royals 21-29 (8) 13. Angels 20-30 (7) 14. Rangers 18-31 (6) 15. Red Sox 18-32 (3) Current NL seedings (magic #): 1. Dodgers 34-15 (X) 2. Cubs 30-20 (5) 3. Braves 29-21 (6) 4. Padres 32-19 (3) 5. Marlins 25-22 (10) 6. Reds 25-26 (13) 7. Phillies 24-24 (11) 8. Giants 24-24 (11) ---------------------------- Outside looking in (elimination #): 9. Cardinals 22-23 (14) 10. Brewers 23-26 (11) 11. Rockies 22-26 (11) 12. Mets 22-27 (10) 13. Nationals 18-29 (8) 14. Diamondbacks 19-31 (6) 15. Pirates 14-34 (3) Clinches: - The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot. Potential clinches today: - The White Sox clinch a playoff spot with a win or losses by Seattle and Baltimore - The Dodgers clinch no worse than the 6 seed with a win or Giants loss - The Nationals would be eliminated from the NL East race with a loss and a Braves win Eliminations: - The Diamondbacks can't win or finish 2nd in the NL West - The Pirates can't win the NL Central - The Rangers can't win the AL West - The Royals can't win the AL Central - The Red Sox can't win the AL East

Back on the task of this year's playoff picture, here's today's update: Current AL seedings (magic #): 1. White Sox 32-16 (3) 2. Rays 31-17 (4) 3. Athletics 30-19 (5) 4. Twins 30-20 (5) 5. Yankees 27-21 (8) 6. Astros 24-24 (11) 7. Blue Jays 26-21 (9) 8. Indians 26-22 (9) ----------------------------- Outside looking in (elimination #): 9. Mariners 22-26 (11) 10. Tigers 21-26 (9) 11. Orioles 21-27 (8) 12. Angels 20-29 (8) 13. Royals 20-29 (6) 14. Red Sox 18-31 (4) 15. Rangers 17-31 (4) Current NL seedings (magic #): 1. Dodgers 34-15 (2) 2. Cubs 29-20 (7) 3. Braves 29-20 (7) 4. Padres 32-18 (4) 5. Marlins 24-22 (12) 6. Cardinals 21-22 (15) 7. Phillies 24-23 (12) 8. Giants 23-24 (13) ---------------------------- Outside looking in (elimination #): 9. Reds 24-26 (14) 10. Brewers 22-25 (15) 11. Rockies 22-25 (12) 12. Mets 21-27 (10) 13. Nationals 17-29 (8) 14. Diamondbacks 18-31 (6) 15. Pirates 14-33 (4) Eliminations: - The Diamondbacks can't win or finish 2nd in the NL West - The Pirates can't win the NL Central - The Rangers can't win the AL West - The Royals can't win the AL Central - The Red Sox can't win the AL East

Personally, I'd rather see the Marlins/Giants/Rockies/Phillies/Brewers/Reds/Mets than the Cardinals for even more games at Wrigley.

In the NL, the 6 seed has a better record than the 7 and 8 seeds. It's only in the AL that the 6 seed is worse.

Effectively, the Pirates, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks are out of the running despite being not mathematically eliminated, and the Rangers, Royals, Tigers, Orioles and Nationals are extreme long shots buoyed only by the rules of the expanded format. The remaining 21 teams are at least within 5 games of a playoff spot and have reasonable paths to the playoffs in one way or another.

There are now just 13 days left in the shortened season, and nobody has been eliminated yet from playoff contention, thanks to the expanded playoff format (though, fun fact, even under the old playoff format nobody would have been eliminated yet). For those unfamiliar with this year's playoff format, here are the specifics: - 8 playoff teams in each league, 16 overall (among 30 teams, so more than half the league) - The first place teams in each division are seeded 1-2-3 according to record - The second place teams in each division are seeded 4-5-6 according to record - The next two best records in the league are seeded 7-8 according to record That means that the worst division winner will get a higher seed than the best wildcard, regardless of record (so the Cubs and Braves will be seeded higher than the Padres/Dodgers runner up), and the worst second place team will get a higher seed than the best wildcard (so, the AL West runner up could finish under .500 and seed higher than a 35-25 Indians team that finishes 3rd in the AL Central). There will also be no tiebreaker games this year, because pandemic, so tiebreakers will be as follows: 1. Best record in head to head games (obviously only applies to ties within the division) 2. Best record in divisional games 3. Best record in last 20 divisional games, then 21, then so on and so forth until the tie is broken. That said, let's take a look at the standings right now: AL East 1. Rays 30-17 2. Blue Jays 26-20 3. Yankees 26-21 4. Orioles 21-26 5. Red Sox 17-31 AL Central 1. White Sox 31-16 2. Twins 30-19 3. Indiana 26-21 4. Tigers 20-26 5. Royals 20-28 AL West 1. Athletics 30-18 2. Astros 23-24 3. Mariners 22-26 4. Angels 20-28 5. Rangers 17-30 NL East 1. Braves 28-20 2. Marlins 24-21 3. Phillies 23-23 4. Mets 21-26 5. Nationals 17-28 NL Central 1. Cubs 28-20 2. Cardinals 21-21 3. Brewers 21-25 4. Reds 23-26 5. Pirates 14-32 NL West 1. Dodgers 33-15 2. Padres 32-17 3. Giants 23-24 4. Rockies 21-25 5. Diamondbacks 17-31 Current Playoff seeds: AL 1. White Sox 31-16 2. Rays 30-17 3. Athletics 30-18 4. Twins 30-19 5. Blue Jays 26-20 6. Astros 23-24 7. Indians 26-21 8. Yankees 26-21 NL 1. Dodgers 33-15 2. Cubs 28-20 3. Braves 28-20 4. Padres 32-17 5. Marlins 24-21 6. Cardinals 21-21 7. Phillies 23-23 8. Giants 23-24

Yelich leads the Brewers in OPS among qualified players, though Gyorko leads among all players.

Were we guaranteed to lose a tiebreaker if both teams won out? I think so. We're 4-6 against both the Cards and Brewers, and the first tiebreaker I believe is H2H record. The Cubs are 5-5 against the Brewers and Cardinals, 6-4 against the Reds, and 5-1 against the Pirates

Between now and Friday, the Cubs play 3 games, while the Brewers play 6 and Cardinals play 8.

We’ll win like 10-2 tomorrow so we easily win the RD but lose the series. Well I did predict the Cubs blowout correctly today. Cubs end up averaging over 5 runs a game for the series despite not scoring in the first 17 innings.

Part of the fun of the Cardinals playing 8 fewer games than the Cubs to this point is that despite a 3 game lead in the division, the Cubs currently do not control their own destiny in the division, as they are done playing the Cardinals and only have 17 games remaining.

Of course, during that 17 game stretch the Cardinals are playing 25 games. The primary concern is that 10 of those 25 are against the Brewers, and someone has to win those games, so the Cubs just have to win some series here. Win this and the next series against the Brewers and the rest of the season should work itself out fine.

The Yankees and Astros are about to play themselves to within a half game of being out of the playoff picture in favor of the Orioles and Mariners. Sign me up for that.

Everybody in the Central gets 10 games against the Pirates. So far: Cubs 5-0 Reds 1-1 (4 games coming up this weekend) Cards 2-3 Brewers 2-4 Yes, the Pirates are over .500 against the rest of the division.

Would be neat to have one of those Bryant 3 HR, 2 2B games.

Having been so long since the USMNT played a meaningful match, what even is their best XI right now? Is Bradley still on it? The way I see, you can make a 4-3-3 work, with Steffen in net, Brooks/Long in the center, and Dest/Yedlin out wide. Bradley/McKennie/Adams in mid, with Pulisic and Morris on the wings, with Altidore or Sargent as striker. And I think I'd be happy with that.

And Tim Weah at Lille, who just missed out on Champions League qualifying this season.

That's what, now, 5 young American men's soccer players at Champions League regulars? - Christian Pulisic, 21, Chelsea - Tyler Adams, 21, RB Leipzig - Weston McKennie, 21, Juventus - Gio Reyna, 17, Dortmund - Sergio Dest, 19, Ajax That doesn't include Josh Sargent (20) at Bremen, either (because Bremen isn't exactly at the cusp of the Champions League).

Brewers discussing not playing tonight's game in protest of the racial violence in Kenosha. [tweet] [/tweet]

I think the difference in remaining schedule between the two and the relative performance thus far (TOR is +2 and BAL is -9) plays into the bulk of those odds. But yes, if Baltimore is suddenly ok, they could also make the playoffs, and have less of a climb to get there than anyone else.

We're about halfway into the season, and the expanded AL playoff's participants are basically already decided barring a huge run by an also-ran that thought they might be good like the Angels or Red Sox. Team - Playoff Odds (FG) 1. Athletics - 99.8% 2. Twins - 99.7% 3. Rays - 99.2% 4. Yankees - 99.0% 5. Astros - 97.2% 6. White Sox - 96.6% 7. Indians - 96.5% 8. Blue Jays - 61.9% 9. Orioles - 17.3% 10. Rangers - 7.3% 11. Angels - 6.3% 12. Royals - 6.3% 13. Red Sox - 5.7% 14. Tigers - 5.4% 15. Mariners - 1.7% Contrast that to the NL, where there are really only 4 teams that have separated themselves from the pack: 1. Dodgers - 100% 2. Cubs - 97.6% 3. Padres - 96.2% 4. Braves - 91.6% 5. Cardinals - 75.8% 6. Mets - 69.4% 7. Brewers - 51.7% 8. Phillies - 42.9% 9. Reds - 37.2% 10. Giants - 31.7% 11. Nats - 30.3% 12. Rockies - 28.5% 13. Diamondbacks - 23.5% 14. Marlins - 23.0% 15. Pirates - 0.8%

John Sickels has decided to stop writing about baseball permanently, because it's forever tied to child abuse for him: [tweet]https://twitter.com/MinorLeagueBall/status/1298266820386811906[/tweet] We are worse off as a populace as a result, but hopefully John can heal as a person.

I think that’s a good thing for us. Bury the Reds. The cardinals are going to die on their death march, they have a double header a week the rest of the way and 2 weeks with 2 double headers and only 2 off days. That also gives us some margin to win only 2 of 5 in cincy next weekend. Yeah I think in a short season the Reds scare me more. That front three in the rotation and a dong heavy offense probably doesn't keep up with the Cards for 162 but for 60 and in the playoffs it's way scarier. What's really going to scare people around here is that the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all are favored to make the playoffs together.