bukie

I just think Syracuse was so far ahead of even a team like WVU that they knew 2 games ago they were locked into a 1 seed. They played both the second half of the last Louisville game and this conference tournament game after the injury as if they just wanted to coast and stay healthy. Really, the only thing to consider for me is if their profile is still better than Kentucky or Duke.

I think Syracuse has played the last 2 games like they don't matter, because they've got a 1 seed locked up. If anything, I don't think it should affect Georgetown and Louisville much.

Yeah, they do have that terrible home loss, and played very few games away from home on the year (finished 5-8 overall including last night's game). They also finished 9-10 against the top 100. However, that road win at Syracuse is undoubtedly the best win of any of the teams in consideration, and considering how weak the bubble is I think they're safe. I initially had them a lot lower on my list, but there are a lot of BAD teams around the bubble right now, so they are the lesser of many evils.

Any chance you can give us the updated list of teams still being considered? Sure, I updated the first post, but I'll post them here too: At-large pool (30 teams): Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baylor 24 6 5-3 2-1 8-2 3-0 5-0 37 228 9-5 BYU 28 4 0-1 5-3 3-0 10-0 9-0 125 188 13-3 Clemson 21 9 4-4 1-3 6-2 3-0 7-0 15 245 7-7 Florida 20 11 2-4 2-4 7-2 4-0 5-1 58 215 7-7 Florida State 22 8 1-6 4-1 8-1 3-0 6-0 24 222 9-5 Georgetown 20 9 3-5 4-2 5-1 4-1 3-0 2 63 8-5 Gonzaga 26 6 1-2 1-1 9-1 4-1 11-1 111 40 12-5 Kansas State 24 6 5-3 2-2 8-1 4-0 4-0 6 96 11-3 Louisville 20 11 2-5 1-2 6-2 7-2 3-0 23 176 5-7 Marquette 20 10 2-6 1-2 8-1 3-1 6-0 51 294 7-6 Maryland 23 7 4-4 2-1 7-1 3-1 6-0 27 258 8-6 Michigan State 24 7 2-4 2-1 9-2 7-0 4-0 34 170 9-5 Missouri 22 9 2-5 2-2 9-1 1-1 8-0 56 300 6-7 New Mexico 28 3 4-0 3-2 1-0 11-1 9-0 98 129 11-2 Notre Dame 21 10 3-2 1-1 6-5 5-2 6-0 70 342 4-7 Ohio State 24 7 5-4 1-1 6-2 7-0 5-0 48 231 7-6 Oklahoma State 21 9 4-5 0-0 5-4 8-0 4-0 49 298 6-8 Pittsburgh 24 7 4-3 1-1 8-2 7-1 3-0 33 221 7-6 Purdue 26 4 4-3 4-0 6-1 8-0 4-0 31 177 12-2 Richmond 24 7 1-1 4-1 3-3 9-2 7-0 85 92 10-6 Temple 26 5 2-2 2-1 6-1 10-1 6-0 27 258 8-6 Tennessee 23 7 2-2 3-3 7-2 6-0 5-0 45 130 8-6 Texas 23 8 2-6 3-0 9-2 4-0 5-0 39 204 8-6 Texas A&M 22 8 4-5 2-3 7-0 4-0 4-0 11 140 7-7 Vanderbilt 23 7 1-2 6-0 8-4 5-1 2-0 29 94 9-5 Villanova 24 6 5-3 4-2 5-1 6-0 4-0 8 163 12-4 Wake Forest 19 9 3-3 2-2 7-3 1-1 6-0 9 162 6-7 West Virginia 24 6 5-3 3-2 8-1 6-0 2-0 1 39 12-4 Wisconsin 23 7 6-3 0-1 8-2 5-1 4-0 22 120 7-6 Xavier 23 7 0-4 3-3 4-0 11-0 5-0 61 19 8-7 Still under consideration for zero to 7 (10 including teams on this list) spots (20 teams): Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arizona State 22 9 0-5 2-1 2-2 12-1 6-0 64 161 6-6 California 21 9 0-3 3-2 4-2 13-2 1-0 20 10 6-8 Cincinnati 17 14 1-6 2-3 4-5 5-0 4-0 70 149 5-10 Dayton 20 11 1-3 2-3 0-3 13-2 4-0 74 78 5-9 Georgia Tech 19 11 2-5 1-3 6-3 3-0 6-0 12 161 5-9 Illinois 18 13 3-7 1-1 5-3 6-2 3-0 13 119 6-9 Memphis 23 8 0-2 0-2 8-2 4-2 11-0 133 248 7-5 Minnesota 18 12 3-6 0-0 4-5 6-1 5-0 47 246 4-9 Mississippi 21 9 1-3 1-3 8-3 4-0 6-0 69 196 9-5 Mississippi State 21 10 0-1 3-4 7-5 5-2 6-0 86 256 9-7 Rhode Island 22 8 0-1 2-3 3-2 13-2 4-0 89 82 9-6 San Diego State 22 8 0-2 2-3 1-0 9-1 8-1 83 107 8-7 Seton Hall 19 11 0-6 3-3 5-2 5-0 6-0 52 323 6-7 South Florida 20 12 1-5 1-3 7-3 6-1 5-0 35 212 9-8 UAB 23 7 1-0 0-4 8-3 6-0 8-0 99 145 11-4 UNLV 23 7 1-2 3-2 2-1 7-2 9-0 97 137 9-4 Utah State 25 6 1-0 0-1 4-1 12-4 7-0 154 171 8-5 UTEP 24 5 0-1 1-1 9-2 4-1 10-0 145 299 9-3 Virginia Tech 23 7 1-3 2-1 10-3 2-0 8-0 66 330 8-6 Washington 21 9 2-2 1-1 3-4 14-2 1-0 57 125 4-7

What's gotten into Notre Dame lately? They're playing like a Big Ten team. :)

As the google drives: Syracuse, NY to Houston, TX : ~1600 miles Syracuse, NY to Salt Lake City, UT: ~2000 miles Lexington, KY to Syracuse, NY: ~660 miles Lexington, KY to Houston, TX: ~990 miles So, since Syracuse is higher on the S-Curve than Kentucky, and Kentucky is higher than Duke, I'd propose Syracuse to the South bracket, Kentucky East, Duke West. Then, Midwest and West brackets would match up together in the Final Four, and South and East would match up together.

I would say Kansas definitely gets St. Louis and Kentucky gets Syracuse. I'm not sure about the other two, though. I'd say Kansas to St. Louis is a no-brainer. What's closer to Kentucky, Syracuse or Houston? And what's closer to Syracuse, Houston or Salt Lake City?

Technically that's true, yes. The 7 I came up with was using just the teams we know are in right now. :)

Also, feel free to make note of any games involving teams in consideration or the at-large pool. Like Louisville losing last night to Cincy.

Now, for the next step: 1 - Top 16 teams left from the at large and auto bid pools (i.e. don't forget Butler is there). We'll continue putting the S-Curve together from the top (starting tomorrow we'll do top and bottom). 2 - Bottom 8 teams to eliminate from consideration - We have 20 teams left and a maximum of 7 spots available. We can probably pare that by 4 to 8 to get down to a manageable number. 3 - Start the bracket process, in discussion today. What regions do we place the 4 1-seeds in? Here are the regional sites: East - Syracuse, NY (NOTE: Syracuse CANNOT be here); Midwest - St. Louis, MO; South - Houston, TX; West - Salt Lake City, UT.

Results in: Top 4 overall: 1. Kansas 2. Syracuse 3. Kentucky 4. Duke It was actually a pretty clear top 4, and there was a pretty clear #5 also. After that it was a mess, with 6 teams between 1 and 2 points average (I calculated using 8 for #1 down to 1 for #8). 11 total teams in 10 top 8 lists, though, is pretty tame. 8 teams now off the bubble and in the at-large pool: 1. Oklahoma State 2. Florida State 3. Wake Forest 4. Richmond 5. Louisville 6. Marquette 7. Notre Dame 8. Florida There were actually 28 teams overall that made it on at least one list (keeping in mind that SSR and I can't vote Illinois and Andy can't vote ND). There were teams that made some people's bubble list that made other people's bottom 8. After those 8, we have the minimum 65 for the tournament, assuming a team steals a bid from every multi bid league from here on out (possible 7). For the interest of what might be, the next 7 in order: Virginia Tech, UTEP, California, Georgia Tech, UNLV, Illinois, Utah State. 8 teams now off the board completely: Lipscomb Stony Brook Troy Coastal Carolina William and Mary Charlotte Connecticut Saint Louis

UAB was over .500 against the top 100, which is more than can be said for several of these bubble teams.

OK, here's my lists: Top 8: Top 16 bubble teams: Bottom 8 bubble teams:

Thanks all. I have a meeting in 10 minutes, but after that I'll post my choices and the results and the plan for tomorrow.

Montana steals the Big Sky bid after being down 20 at the half. 10 hours to get lists in.

Robert Morris takes the NEC bid. Big Sky bid up for grabs now between Weber State and Montana.

Reminder: 13 hours to get me those 3 lists. I have received 1 and 1/3 lists so far.

Completed consideration board: Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arizona State 22 9 0-5 2-1 2-2 12-1 6-0 64 161 6-6 California 21 9 0-3 3-2 4-2 13-2 1-0 20 10 6-8 Charlotte 19 12 0-3 2-5 1-1 6-3 9-0 81 141 9-7 Cincinnati 17 14 1-6 2-3 4-5 5-0 4-0 70 149 5-10 Coastal Carolina 28 6 0-1 0-0 0-0 2-0 21-5 347 342 11-4 Connecticut 17 15 3-5 1-4 2-6 9-0 2-0 3 42 3-11 Dayton 20 11 1-3 2-3 0-3 13-2 4-0 74 78 5-9 Florida 20 11 2-4 2-4 7-2 4-0 5-1 58 215 7-7 Florida State 22 8 1-6 4-1 8-1 3-0 6-0 24 222 9-5 Georgia Tech 19 11 2-5 1-3 6-3 3-0 6-0 12 161 5-9 Illinois 18 13 3-7 1-1 5-3 6-2 3-0 13 119 6-9 Lipscomb 17 13 0-1 0-1 0-2 5-3 11-6 241 173 8-8 Louisville 20 11 2-5 1-2 6-2 7-2 3-0 23 176 5-7 Marquette 20 10 2-6 1-2 8-1 3-1 6-0 51 294 7-6 Memphis 23 8 0-2 0-2 8-2 4-2 11-0 133 248 7-5 Minnesota 18 12 3-6 0-0 4-5 6-1 5-0 47 246 4-9 Mississippi 21 9 1-3 1-3 8-3 4-0 6-0 69 196 9-5 Mississippi State 21 10 0-1 3-4 7-5 5-2 6-0 86 256 9-7 Notre Dame 21 10 3-2 1-1 6-5 5-2 6-0 70 342 4-7 Oklahoma State 21 9 4-5 0-0 5-4 8-0 4-0 49 298 6-8 Rhode Island 22 8 0-1 2-3 3-2 13-2 4-0 89 82 9-6 Richmond 24 7 1-1 4-1 3-3 9-2 7-0 85 92 10-6 Saint Louis 20 10 0-1 3-3 2-3 8-2 6-1 120 288 5-7 San Diego State 22 8 0-2 2-3 1-0 9-1 8-1 83 107 8-7 Seton Hall 19 11 0-6 3-3 5-2 5-0 6-0 52 323 6-7 South Florida 20 12 1-5 1-3 7-3 6-1 5-0 35 212 9-8 Stony Brook 22 9 0-0 0-0 0-2 4-2 16-5 318 336 10-8 Troy 20 12 0-0 0-1 1-4 6-3 10-4 184 20 9-10 UAB 23 7 1-0 0-4 8-3 6-0 8-0 99 145 11-4 UNLV 23 7 1-2 3-2 2-1 7-2 9-0 97 137 9-4 Utah State 25 6 1-0 0-1 4-1 12-4 7-0 154 171 8-5 UTEP 24 5 0-1 1-1 9-2 4-1 10-0 145 299 9-3 Virginia Tech 23 7 1-3 2-1 10-3 2-0 8-0 66 330 8-6 Wake Forest 19 9 3-3 2-2 7-3 1-1 6-0 9 162 6-7 Washington 21 9 2-2 1-1 3-4 14-2 1-0 57 125 4-7 William & Mary 22 10 1-0 2-3 3-2 6-2 9-3 84 17 12-7 Notes: - Small conference winners look totally outclassed in this group, and that includes a barely .500 team. - William and Mary have 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. Florida, San Diego State and Saint Louis also have a loss outside the top 200. - Of the remaining teams, Utah State has played just 7 games against the top 100, San Diego State just 8 - Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall played non conference schedules rated over 300, and Marquette, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis and UTEP played non-conference schedules rated over 250. - Illinois played the most top 25 teams of anyone at 10, but went just 3-7 in the games (and get another one Friday!). Only Oklahoma State, though, has more top 25 wins at 4. Connecticut, Minnesota, Notre Dame and Wake Forest also have 3 wins. - Connecticut went 2-6 against teams ranked 51-100, and 6-15 against the top 100 overall. Other teams under .500 against teams 51-100 are Cincinnati (4-5), Minnesota (4-5), Mississippi State (3-4), Saint Louis (2-3) and Washington (3-4).

Speaking of teams not exactly helping themselves, Mizzou is putting up a solid showing against Nebraska.

Bad non conference schedule, 3-8 against the top 50.

About 1/3 of the way through the bubble teams, here's what I've got so far: Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Louisville 20 11 2-5 1-2 6-2 7-2 3-0 23 176 5-7 Marquette 20 10 2-6 1-2 8-1 3-1 6-0 51 294 7-6 Florida State 22 8 1-6 4-1 8-1 3-0 6-0 24 222 9-5 Oklahoma State 21 9 4-5 0-0 5-4 8-0 4-0 49 298 6-8 Richmond 24 7 1-1 4-1 3-3 9-2 7-0 85 92 10-6 California 21 9 0-3 3-2 4-2 13-2 1-0 20 10 6-8 UTEP 24 5 0-1 1-1 9-2 4-1 10-0 145 299 9-3 Wake Forest 19 9 3-3 2-2 7-3 1-1 6-0 9 162 6-7 Utah State 25 6 1-0 0-1 4-1 12-4 7-0 154 171 8-5 Dayton 20 11 1-3 2-3 0-3 13-2 4-0 74 78 5-9 Illinois 18 13 3-7 1-1 5-3 6-2 3-0 13 119 6-9 Memphis 23 8 0-2 0-2 8-2 4-2 11-0 133 248 7-5 Notre Dame 21 10 3-2 1-1 6-5 5-2 6-0 70 342 4-7 The only thing I have to say is holy crap, Illinois really did play a tough schedule, at least in terms of high-end teams.

I updated the first post with stats on all the at-large locks, but I'll repost them here too: Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baylor 24 6 5-3 2-1 8-2 3-0 5-0 37 228 9-5 BYU 28 4 0-1 5-3 3-0 10-0 9-0 125 188 13-3 Clemson 21 9 4-4 1-3 6-2 3-0 7-0 15 245 7-7 Duke 26 5 4-3 4-1 12-1 3-0 4-0 4 73 9-5 Georgetown 20 9 3-5 4-2 5-1 4-1 3-0 2 63 8-5 Gonzaga 26 6 1-2 1-1 9-1 4-1 11-1 111 40 12-5 Kansas 29 2 8-0 2-2 10-0 5-0 4-0 32 138 11-2 Kansas State 24 6 5-3 2-2 8-1 4-0 4-0 6 96 11-3 Kentucky 29 2 0-0 7-1 10-1 9-0 3-0 62 199 11-2 Maryland 23 7 4-4 2-1 7-1 3-1 6-0 27 258 8-6 Michigan State 24 7 2-4 2-1 9-2 7-0 4-0 34 170 9-5 Missouri 22 9 2-5 2-2 9-1 1-1 8-0 56 300 6-7 New Mexico 28 3 4-0 3-2 1-0 11-1 9-0 98 129 11-2 Ohio State 24 7 5-4 1-1 6-2 7-0 5-0 48 231 7-6 Pittsburgh 24 7 4-3 1-1 8-2 7-1 3-0 33 221 7-6 Purdue 26 4 4-3 4-0 6-1 8-0 4-0 31 177 12-2 Syracuse 28 3 6-0 3-3 9-0 5-0 5-0 27 258 8-6 Temple 26 5 2-2 2-1 6-1 10-1 6-0 27 258 8-6 Tennessee 23 7 2-2 3-3 7-2 6-0 5-0 45 130 8-6 Texas 23 8 2-6 3-0 9-2 4-0 5-0 39 204 8-6 Texas A&M 22 8 4-5 2-3 7-0 4-0 4-0 11 140 7-7 Vanderbilt 23 7 1-2 6-0 8-4 5-1 2-0 29 94 9-5 Villanova 24 6 5-3 4-2 5-1 6-0 4-0 8 163 12-4 West Virginia 24 6 5-3 3-2 8-1 6-0 2-0 1 39 12-4 Wisconsin 23 7 6-3 0-1 8-2 5-1 4-0 22 120 7-6 Xavier 23 7 0-4 3-3 4-0 11-0 5-0 61 19 8-7 My notes from this: - This is all data taken from Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, both a much better tool than RPI and a much more accessible tool. - The only teams on the list without a top 25 win are BYU, Xavier and Kentucky (who didn't have a top 25 loss, either) - The teams from the weaker conferences generally played stronger non-conference schedules, except BYU. - Kansas had 8 top 25 wins, followed by Syracuse and Wisconsin with 6 each. - West Virginia and Vanderbilt managed to play just 2 teams each outside the top 200. Gonzaga, on the other hand, played 12 (and lost one). - Gonzaga played the most road/neutral games with 17, but Purdue had the best road-neutral record at 12-2 (in terms of percentage). BYU is 13-3, New Mexico, Kansas and Kentucky are 11-2, Kansas State is 11-3, and Villanova and West Virginia are 12-4. - Of the list, Gonzaga has by far the worst loss.

I think Duke has a lot better resume than they're given credit for in the media, and not just because they're Duke. In other words, this just in, Duke = good.

And I am working on getting statistical comparison info out on the locks and consideration teams, but I do have to give attention to paid work today also. :) Here's what I have so far: Team W L top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS R+N ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baylor 24 6 5-3 2-1 8-2 3-0 5-0 37 228 9-5 BYU 28 4 0-1 5-3 3-0 10-0 9-0 125 188 13-3 Clemson 21 9 4-4 1-3 6-2 3-0 7-0 15 245 7-7 Duke 26 5 4-3 4-1 12-1 3-0 4-0 4 73 9-5 Georgetown 20 9 3-5 4-2 5-1 4-1 3-0 2 63 8-5 Gonzaga 26 6 1-2 1-1 9-1 4-1 11-1 111 40 12-5 Kansas 29 2 8-0 2-2 10-0 5-0 4-0 32 138 11-2 Kansas State 24 6 5-3 2-2 8-1 4-0 4-0 6 96 11-3 Kentucky 29 2 0-0 7-1 10-1 9-0 3-0 62 199 11-2 Maryland 23 7 4-4 2-1 7-1 3-1 6-0 27 258 8-6 Michigan State 24 7 2-4 2-1 9-2 7-0 4-0 34 170 9-5

Here's what I want today (well by 8am CST tomorrow): - Top 8 overall from teams already in (locks + auto bids) - Top 16 from the teams in consideration - Bottom 8 from the teams in consideration I will use these lists to select the top 4 overall for 1 seeds, the 8 other at-large teams in the field besides the 26 we already have (to make 34 total), and pare down the consideration list.