bukie

Completely disagree. Having a mediocre DL doesn't get your star QB killed though. We spent $90 million on the D-line this past offseason. Time to put that kind of effort into the O-line. According to FO, the 3 teams we've played so far all have O-lines ranked in the top 10 in pass protection. The Giants are ranked 20th. We should be able to get to Eli. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol Not to go all chicken-egg analogy on you here, but maybe those three teams are top 10 in pass protection because they've played just 3 games, one being against the Bears DL. FO's numbers will be opponent-adjusted after next week, which will make them more representative and predictive overall and less speculative. The biggest concern right now that I have for the Bears is the pass defense, because everything else has gone as well or better than expected (or in the case of the rushing offense, as bad as expected and it's not going to get better).

I believe it. I don't think DVOA looks kindly at "bend but don't break". And we've been living too dangerously on that this year. Yesterday's game was the rare "double negative". Basically, a team's VOA is a mirror of their opponent's, except for instances where the other team didn't affect performance (penalties and missed FGs). Outside the penalties (which still count!), the Packers offense significantly outplayed the Bears defense, while the Bears offense slightly outplayed the Packer D and the Bears special teams wiped the floor with the Packers special teams.

As suspected, the Bears actually dropped to 12th in the FO ratings this week (KC is up to 9th), mostly due to a complete lack of winning anything impressively. The defense is actually the weak link at this point.

And who might those two "spout-offs" be? Apparently you have reading comprehension issues and short-term memory loss, so I'll help you out a little bit: So, I guess, really, the funniest thing about the aftermath is how you and erik are somehow fellating yourselves after a Packer loss.

I think the funniest thing to me is how the two biggest spout-offs prior to the game are actually somehow cockier since the result.

FO's numbers this week have Cutler dropped to the 9th most effective QB in the NFL through 3 weeks (15th this past week). Knox is a top 10 receiver by DYAR and DVOA, and even Olsen is rising to the middle of the pack among TEs. Hester is average at WR, and Forte is the least effective rushing RB in the league and the most effective receiving RB in the league. As lines go, the offensive line is 28th against the run and 26th against the pass, and no other line is as bad at both as the Bears. D-line is 1st against the run and 28th against the pass due mostly to the lack of D-line sacks. Team totals haven't been posted yet, but I don't see them reflecting favorably on the Bears' performance offensively or on pass defense this week. Special teams should be high, though.

According to DYAR, Rodgers had the best QB game of the week, while Cutler was average. Can't really argue with that, either.

One more thing I want to note about last night's game: net yards. Packers Bears ------- ----- Rushing | 63 77 Passing | 316 199 Return | 107 184 Penalties | -152 -38 ------------------------- Net | 334 422

Actually, no, I don't like baseball right now.

I'm not sure this is true at this point. Certainly not through the first 3 games.

The Bears are still the most likely 3-0 team to miss the playoffs at this point, because I think Pittsburgh is just plain better, and Kansas City is in a division without any really good teams.

I thought Packers fans did sausages and cheeses.

It's the Martz offense. Screen passes basically are the running game. The line is so terrible it's not worth running inside the tackles.

I'm encouraged that the Bears beat the Packers while Cutler had his worst game of the year, the pass defense was bad all night, and the rushing game was still non-existent. That bodes well for games where one of those things actually goes the other way.

I'm perfectly calm. I'm not the one trying to make it personal, like a certain mod I happen to be responding to right now. That's twice tonight. Continue to set a great example, o dear leader. See, his Packer persona isn't that much different than his Cubs persona.

By the time week 3 is over, we'll be left with 3 undefeated teams (assuming the Packers and Bears don't tie): Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the Green Bay/Chicago winner.

I continue to be amazed at the number of people who don't realize that wins and losses are a team effort in a team sport.

Pujols for Castro? :)

More detail: Offensive efficiency (positive better, 0 is avg): 9th passing (40.0), 30th rushing (-32.2) Defensive efficiency (negative is better, 0 is avg): 4th rushing (-39.9), 16th passing (3.2) Pass defense broken down by target (again, negative is better, 0 avg): 13th vs #1 WR (-28.0), 11th vs #2 WR (-21.8), 10th vs TE (-19.1), 14th vs RB (-5.8), 32nd vs other WRs (227.5) Individuals: Cutler - 3rd (254 DYAR, 46.7% DVOA, also 3rd) Forte - Rushing: 38th of 40 qualified (-41 DYAR, -38.1% DVOA, 37th there); Receiving: 1st of 59 qualified (48 DYAR, 49.6% DVOA, 9th) Hester - 13th of 84 qualified (46 DYAR, 66.6% DVOA, 2nd) Knox - 14th of 84 qualified (43 DYAR, 47.5% DVOA, 9th) Aromashodu - 61st of 84 qualified (-7 DYAR, -21.4% DVOA, 63rd) Olsen - 21st of 42 qualified (1 DYAR, -5.8% DVOA, 22nd) Offensive Line: Pass blocking: 22nd (7.6% sack rate) Run blocking: Overall - 24th, Left End - 1st, Left Tackle - 1st, Guards/Mid - 26th, Right Tackle - 16th, Right End - 22nd Explanation: Why 24th overall when the left side somehow rates 1st overall? Because 60% of the Bears runs go to the middle, 35% to the right, and 5% to the left (2 rushes left in 2 games). Defensive Line: Pass rush: 29th (2.4% sack rate) Run defense: Overall - 1st, Right Out - 15th, Right End - 27th, DTs - 1st, Left End - 15th, Left Out - 2nd Explanation: The front four hasn't generated much in the way of sacks, forcing either blitzes or too much time to exploit a weaker secondary. Run defense, though, can't be much better (except from the Right End, who I assume is Peppers, and is primarily concerned with pass rushing anyway). Special Teams: Overall: 18th (-0.1%) adjusted, 29th (-6.4%) raw FG/XP: 6th Kickoffs: 13th Kick returns: 10th Punts: 31st Punt returns: 24th

FO has the Bears 9th this week, with slightly above average offense and defense, and almost the worst special teams in the league. Ahead of the Bears are Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis, NY Jets, and Miami.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5596131 Awesome. =D> I don't get why people think that's awesome. He's an ahole who decided to assault somebody. That's cool? Yeah, that guy has some serious issues. He's apparently already transferred out of Ohio.

FO on Cutler's week 2 performance in "Quick Reads" (he was 9th in DYAR this week behind Orton, McNabb, Rodgers, Schaub, Peyton, Sanchez, Ryan and Rivers...mostly because there were that many great performances at QB this week):

All of a sudden, the rest of the NFC doesn't look so intimidating. Sure, the Packers (and likely the Saints..we'll see tonight) clearly look better than the Bears, but what about the rest? Minnesota looks bad early, the whole NFC West is garbage, and nobody in the NFC East looks good aside from maybe Philly. Tampa is 2-0, but against Cleveland and Carolina. Atlanta could be good yet. But then that's what, 4 teams?

A chuckle from FO's reaction to the Green Bay-Buffalo game:

Someone should probably let the Giants know the game started at 7:30 local time.