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bukie

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Everything posted by bukie

  1. According to Aaron Schatz, the top four and 10 of the top 15 in DVOA are in the NFC. Also, the top team is neither Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, nor San Fran, so I can only assume the Giants will be #1 this week.
  2. My subjective power rankings: 1. Chicago 2. NY Giants 3. San Francisco 4. Houston 5. Green Bay 6. New England 7. Atlanta 8. Baltimore ... big gap ... 9. Seattle 10. Minnesota 11. Arizona 12. Denver 13. San Diego 14. Miami 15. Washington 16. Detroit ... big gap ... 17. Pittsburgh 18. St. Louis 19. Tampa Bay 20. Cincinnati 21. Philadelphia 22. New York Jets 23. Dallas 24. New Orleans ... big gap ... 25. Indianapolis 26. Carolina 27. Cleveland 28. Oakland 29. Buffalo 30. Kansas City 31. Jacksonville 32. Tennessee
  3. Rofl...something tells me those 30 seconds weren't gonna be all that awesome anyway. Less of a waste of time than the 30 minutes he took writing up that post.
  4. There's a pretty steep dropoff in quality after the top 8. Minnesota/San Diego/Arizona/Seattle is #9 at this point. Miami could be the fourth best team in the AFC. Indy is average perhaps within the AFC, but bottom third overall. I'd put Indy above KC, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Cleveland easy, and I'm not exactly sold on Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Cincy being better than them either. I guess basically what I'm saying is there are three decent teams in the AFC and maybe Denver is OK too.
  5. Grantland tries to sort out the top 8 teams in the NFL after a messed up week 6 (spoiler: Denver and San Diego aren't among them, so the game tonight doesn't matter for it): http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8506988/the-top-teams-game-rest-week-6-news
  6. bukie

    NFL Week 6

    Pittsburgh, Cincy, Indy all lost. If New England loses to Seattle and San Diego loses to Denver, only Baltimore and Houston will be over .500.
  7. The real interesting match tonight is El Salvador v Costa Rica, as a CR loss eliminates them from the hex.
  8. Fully expecting an EJ brace, so the move works in spite of itself.
  9. The Bears are the only team in the league in the top 10 against all receivers. Every other team has at least one area to exploit (except maybe Philly, who is also above average against everyone). EDIT: Looking at the D-Line ratings (to get a more granular look at the run defense), it looks like the Bear D is actually top 10 in every facet but one. They're apparently the worst team in the league at defending runs at the left tackle. Runs at the left tackle would actually be at the right DE, which would be Julius Peppers.
  10. I'm going to have to remember in 2015 to try and carry over some extras into 2016, just in case. Although we can only carry over 5. I'd be surprised if you had five left after following the Cubs' 2015 world championship run.
  11. bukie

    NFL Week 6

    As for why the Lions have the second lowest win projection in the NFC, they have three total teams on their schedule that currently have a losing record. One is Green Bay, and they already lost to one of the other two (Tennessee).
  12. bukie

    NFL Week 6

    FO projections as of week 5: AFC 1. Houston 12-4 2. New England 11-5 3. Baltimore 11-5 4. Denver 10-6 5. Pittsburgh 9-7 6. San Diego 8-8 --------------------------- 7. Miami 8-8 8. Cincinnati 8-8 9. Indiianapolis 7-9 10. NY Jets 7-9 11. Buffalo 7-9 12. Oakland 6-10 13. Kansas City 6-10 14. Tennessee 5-11 15. Jacksonville 5-11 16. Cleveland 5-11 NFC 1. Atlanta 13-3 2. San Francisco 11-5 3. Chicago 11-5 4. NY Giants 10-6 5. Minnesota 10-6 6. Seattle 9-7 --------------------------------- 7. Green Bay 9-7 8. Philadelphia 8-8 9. Arizona 8-8 10. Dallas 8-8 11. Washington 7-9 12. St. Louis 7-9 13. Tampa Bay 6-10 14. Carolina 6-10 15. Detroit 6-10 16. New Orleans 5-11 Teams over 90% to make the playoffs: Houston, Atlanta, New England, Baltimore Teams under 10% to make the playoffs: Jacksonville, Cleveland, New Orleans, Tennessee, Carolina, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis
  13. Full rankings here. Bears currently sitting at just over 82% to make the playoffs. The chances of them getting the #1 seed is almost nothing, though, because Atlanta's schedule from here on out is so criminally easy. They have just one above average team left on the schedule (Giants at home week 15). EDIT: Even more criminally easy is Denver's remaining schedule, which features zero above average teams. They've already played Atlanta, Houston and New England, though, so they're 2-3. EDIT 2: For comparison, the Bears have six games remaining against above average teams this year (@SF, HOU, GB, @MIN, MIN, SEA) and another three against slightly below average teams (DET, @DET, @ARI)
  14. bukie

    NFL Week 6

    According to FO, there are four teams with a more than 90% chance of making the playoffs already after just over 1/4 of the season: Houston (99.5%), Atlanta (99.4%), New England (93.8%) and Baltimore (90.5%)
  15. bukie

    NFL Week 6

    There's a distinct possibility that there could only be two AFC teams over .500 after this week.
  16. You have an inside source? Aaron Schatz via Twitter.
  17. The Bears are going to be 3rd in the FO DVOA ratings later today, behind San Fran and Houston. NFC North has 3 of the top 7 teams in DVOA.
  18. I don't get the bizarre sudden Steelers love. Two point home win over a hugely overvalued Eagles team? Definitely top 10 material, because that bye week probably counts as a win too for them.
  19. They should shape the cast like a mitt, then he could play.
  20. Yep, unconscionable unless for some reason AZ didn't release Altidore.
  21. Miami says hi Well, they would if they cared enough to.
  22. I still can't figure out why this is such a big deal to people. You don't see why a week's worth of dedicated prime time national media coverage on a campus is a big deal to fans of that college?
  23. Second in yards per game behind Megatron. I didn't realize that Reggie Wayne has over 500 yards receiving in four games. Didn't he just have like 250 yesterday? 212, yeah, just seems crazy he's on pace for 2000 receiving yards.
  24. Second in yards per game behind Megatron. I didn't realize that Reggie Wayne has over 500 yards receiving in four games.
  25. Here's a fun game: who are your playoff teams in the AFC? The AFC as a whole is terrible this year. Even if we assume Houston, Baltimore and New England get in, that still leaves three playoff spots for the AFC West winner (SD/DEN) and two wildcard spots. There are only five teams over .500 in the AFC after five weeks, the above mentioned teams along with a San Diego team that just lost to previously winless New Orleans and a Cincinnati team whose best win was over Washington. Over at Football Outsiders, the bottom 6 teams and 8 of the bottom 10 teams are AFC teams (KC, OAK, TEN, JAC, PIT, NYJ, CLE, BUF), and as terrible as those teams have played to this point, a team like Pittsburgh still can't really be ruled out for a playoff spot. If I had to guess right now, I'd guess that the AFC sorts out: 1. Houston 13-3 2. New England 11-5 3. Baltimore 11-5 4. Denver 10-6 5. Miami 9-7 6. San Diego 9-7
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