bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
There's a pretty steep dropoff in quality after the top 8. Minnesota/San Diego/Arizona/Seattle is #9 at this point. Miami could be the fourth best team in the AFC. Indy is average perhaps within the AFC, but bottom third overall. I'd put Indy above KC, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Cleveland easy, and I'm not exactly sold on Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Cincy being better than them either. I guess basically what I'm saying is there are three decent teams in the AFC and maybe Denver is OK too. -
BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
Grantland tries to sort out the top 8 teams in the NFL after a messed up week 6 (spoiler: Denver and San Diego aren't among them, so the game tonight doesn't matter for it): http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8506988/the-top-teams-game-rest-week-6-news -
Pittsburgh, Cincy, Indy all lost. If New England loses to Seattle and San Diego loses to Denver, only Baltimore and Houston will be over .500.
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The real interesting match tonight is El Salvador v Costa Rica, as a CR loss eliminates them from the hex.
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Fully expecting an EJ brace, so the move works in spite of itself.
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BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
The Bears are the only team in the league in the top 10 against all receivers. Every other team has at least one area to exploit (except maybe Philly, who is also above average against everyone). EDIT: Looking at the D-Line ratings (to get a more granular look at the run defense), it looks like the Bear D is actually top 10 in every facet but one. They're apparently the worst team in the league at defending runs at the left tackle. Runs at the left tackle would actually be at the right DE, which would be Julius Peppers. -
I'm going to have to remember in 2015 to try and carry over some extras into 2016, just in case. Although we can only carry over 5. I'd be surprised if you had five left after following the Cubs' 2015 world championship run.
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As for why the Lions have the second lowest win projection in the NFC, they have three total teams on their schedule that currently have a losing record. One is Green Bay, and they already lost to one of the other two (Tennessee).
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FO projections as of week 5: AFC 1. Houston 12-4 2. New England 11-5 3. Baltimore 11-5 4. Denver 10-6 5. Pittsburgh 9-7 6. San Diego 8-8 --------------------------- 7. Miami 8-8 8. Cincinnati 8-8 9. Indiianapolis 7-9 10. NY Jets 7-9 11. Buffalo 7-9 12. Oakland 6-10 13. Kansas City 6-10 14. Tennessee 5-11 15. Jacksonville 5-11 16. Cleveland 5-11 NFC 1. Atlanta 13-3 2. San Francisco 11-5 3. Chicago 11-5 4. NY Giants 10-6 5. Minnesota 10-6 6. Seattle 9-7 --------------------------------- 7. Green Bay 9-7 8. Philadelphia 8-8 9. Arizona 8-8 10. Dallas 8-8 11. Washington 7-9 12. St. Louis 7-9 13. Tampa Bay 6-10 14. Carolina 6-10 15. Detroit 6-10 16. New Orleans 5-11 Teams over 90% to make the playoffs: Houston, Atlanta, New England, Baltimore Teams under 10% to make the playoffs: Jacksonville, Cleveland, New Orleans, Tennessee, Carolina, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis
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BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
Full rankings here. Bears currently sitting at just over 82% to make the playoffs. The chances of them getting the #1 seed is almost nothing, though, because Atlanta's schedule from here on out is so criminally easy. They have just one above average team left on the schedule (Giants at home week 15). EDIT: Even more criminally easy is Denver's remaining schedule, which features zero above average teams. They've already played Atlanta, Houston and New England, though, so they're 2-3. EDIT 2: For comparison, the Bears have six games remaining against above average teams this year (@SF, HOU, GB, @MIN, MIN, SEA) and another three against slightly below average teams (DET, @DET, @ARI) -
According to FO, there are four teams with a more than 90% chance of making the playoffs already after just over 1/4 of the season: Houston (99.5%), Atlanta (99.4%), New England (93.8%) and Baltimore (90.5%)
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There's a distinct possibility that there could only be two AFC teams over .500 after this week.
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BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
You have an inside source? Aaron Schatz via Twitter. -
BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
The Bears are going to be 3rd in the FO DVOA ratings later today, behind San Fran and Houston. NFC North has 3 of the top 7 teams in DVOA. -
BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
I don't get the bizarre sudden Steelers love. Two point home win over a hugely overvalued Eagles team? Definitely top 10 material, because that bye week probably counts as a win too for them. -
BYE and Game 6 - Detroit Lions @ BEARS - 10/22 MNF 7:30
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in Other Sports
They should shape the cast like a mitt, then he could play. -
Yep, unconscionable unless for some reason AZ didn't release Altidore.
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Miami says hi Well, they would if they cared enough to.
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I still can't figure out why this is such a big deal to people. You don't see why a week's worth of dedicated prime time national media coverage on a campus is a big deal to fans of that college?
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Second in yards per game behind Megatron. I didn't realize that Reggie Wayne has over 500 yards receiving in four games. Didn't he just have like 250 yesterday? 212, yeah, just seems crazy he's on pace for 2000 receiving yards.
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Second in yards per game behind Megatron. I didn't realize that Reggie Wayne has over 500 yards receiving in four games.
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Here's a fun game: who are your playoff teams in the AFC? The AFC as a whole is terrible this year. Even if we assume Houston, Baltimore and New England get in, that still leaves three playoff spots for the AFC West winner (SD/DEN) and two wildcard spots. There are only five teams over .500 in the AFC after five weeks, the above mentioned teams along with a San Diego team that just lost to previously winless New Orleans and a Cincinnati team whose best win was over Washington. Over at Football Outsiders, the bottom 6 teams and 8 of the bottom 10 teams are AFC teams (KC, OAK, TEN, JAC, PIT, NYJ, CLE, BUF), and as terrible as those teams have played to this point, a team like Pittsburgh still can't really be ruled out for a playoff spot. If I had to guess right now, I'd guess that the AFC sorts out: 1. Houston 13-3 2. New England 11-5 3. Baltimore 11-5 4. Denver 10-6 5. Miami 9-7 6. San Diego 9-7
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87 would really be just running up the score. Have to think they'll start resting starters after 40.
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Team efficiency numbers through a quarter of the season: Team offense: 21st Passing offense: 19th (slightly above average efficiency, 11 teams below mean) Rushing offense: 22nd (slightly below average efficiency, 24 teams below mean) Offensive line: 23rd run blocking, 28th pass blocking Offensive line blocking yards distribution: left tackle 22nd, left guard 23rd, center 26th, right guard 15th, right tackle 2nd Team defense: 1st Passing defense: 1st Rushing defense: 18th Defense vs specific receivers: #1 WR: 7th, #2 WR: 1st, Slot WR: 2nd, TE: 13th, RB: 12th (only team in league above average vs all receivers) Defensive line: 5th in run defense, 7th in pass rush Defensive line efficiency distribution: left end 12th, left inside tackle 31st, middle 14th, right inside tackle 3rd, right end 5th Special teams: 1st FG/XP: 5th Kickoffs: 2nd Kick returns: 7th Punting: 10th Punt returns: 8th (again, only team in the league above average in all facets) "Luck": 32nd (advantage from elements out of team control, like opposing FGs, kickoff distance, punt distance...they have the biggest disadvantage in the league in this area thus far)
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