bukie

I have a feeling Wichita State and St. Mary's will be seeded lower than in here, but hopefully not much lower since the committee is actually looking at KP and such this year instead of just RPI.

So let's try a bracket: Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO) -- Tulsa, OK 1. Kansas vs 16. Mount St. Mary's - NEC / UC Davis - Big West 8. Northwestern vs 9. Vanderbilt -- Milwaukee, WI 4. Butler vs 13. Princeton - Ivy 5. Wichita State - MVC vs 12. East Tennessee State - SoCon -- Orlando, FL 2. Duke - ACC vs 15. Sun Belt (Troy) 7. Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs 10. Rhode Island - A-10 -- Salt Lake City, UT 3. Arizona - Pac-12 vs 14. Northern Kentucky - Horizon 6. Notre Dame vs 11. Dayton West Region (San Jose, CA) -- Sacramento, CA 1. Gonzaga - WCC vs 16. UNC Central - MEAC 8. Oklahoma State vs 9. Miami FL -- Salt Lake City, UT 4. Florida State vs 13. Vermont - America East 5. Oregon vs 12. Middle Tennessee - CUSA -- Indianapolis, IN 2. Kentucky (SEC) vs 15. Jacksonville State - OVC 7. Michigan vs 10. Wake Forest -- Indianapolis, IN 3. Louisville vs 14. Iona - MAAC 6. Cincinnati vs 11. VCU / Providence East Region (New York, NY) -- Buffalo, NY 1. Villanova - Big East vs 16. Texas Southern - SWAC / South Dakota State - Summit 8. Kansas State vs 9. South Carolina -- Sacramento, CA 4. UCLA vs 13. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun 5. SMU (American) vs 12. UNC-Wilmington - CAA -- Tulsa, OK 2. Baylor vs 15. Kent State - MAC 7. Minnesota vs 10. Xavier -- Buffalo, NY 3. Virginia vs 14. New Mexico State - WAC 6. Maryland vs 11. Seton Hall South Region (Memphis, TN) -- Greensboro, NC 1. North Carolina vs 16. New Orleans - Southland 8. Creighton vs 9. Arkansas -- Milwaukee, WI 4. Purdue vs 13. Bucknell - Patriot 5. Iowa State - Big 12 vs 12. Nevada - MWC -- Greensboro, NC 2. West Virginia vs 15. North Dakota - Big Sky 7. Virginia Tech vs 10. Michigan State -- Orlando, FL 3. Florida vs 14. Winthrop - Big South 6. St. Mary's vs 11. Marquette / Illinois State

So then looking at Pods for 2017: 1. Kansas - Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO) - Tulsa, OK Pod 2. Gonzaga - West Region (San Jose, CA) - Sacramento, CA Pod 3. Villanova - East Region (New York, NY) - Buffalo, NY Pod 4. North Carolina - South Region (Memphis, TN) - Greensboro, NC Pod 5. West Virginia - Greensboro, NC Pod 6. Baylor - Tulsa, OK Pod 7. Kentucky - Indianapolis, IN Pod 8. Duke - Orlando, FL Pod 9. Louisville - Indianapolis, IN Pod 10. Virginia - Buffalo, NY Pod 11. Arizona - Salt Lake City, UT Pod 12. Florida - Orlando, FL Pod 13. Purdue - Milwaukee, WI Pod 14. UCLA - Sacramento, CA Pod 15. Florida State - Salt Lake City, UT Pod 16. Butler - Milwaukee, WI Pod

I do like Arizona and Duke better than I did two days ago. Baylor has a strong profile that doesn't get overly diminished with a loss to KSU. I think UNC bumps Baylor slightly, and Kentucky and Duke slide above Louisville, with Arizona sliding up above UCLA and Florida. So here's what I mean: 1. Kansas 2. Gonzaga - WCC 3. Villanova - Big East 4. North Carolina 5. West Virginia 6. Baylor 7. Kentucky (SEC) 8. Duke - ACC 9. Louisville 10. Virginia 11. Arizona - Pac-12 12. Florida 13. Purdue 14. UCLA 15. Florida State 16. Butler 17. Wichita State - MVC 18. Oregon 19. SMU (American) 20. Iowa State - Big 12 21. St. Mary's 22. Maryland 23. Notre Dame 24. Cincinnati 25. Wisconsin (Big Ten) 26. Michigan 27. Minnesota 28. Virginia Tech 29. Northwestern 30. Creighton 31. Kansas State 32. Oklahoma State 33. Miami FL 34. Vanderbilt 35. South Carolina 36. Arkansas 37. Xavier 38. Wake Forest 39. Michigan State 40. Rhode Island 41. Dayton 42. Seton Hall 43. VCU (Atlantic 10) 44. Providence 45. Marquette 46. Illinois State 47. Nevada - MWC 48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA 49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA 51. East Tennessee State - SoCon 52. Ivy (Princeton) 53. Vermont - America East 54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun 55. Bucknell - Patriot 56. Winthrop - Big South 57. New Mexico State - WAC 58. Iona - MAAC 59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon 50. Sun Belt (Troy) 60. Jacksonville State - OVC 61. Kent State - MAC 62. South Dakota State - Summit 63. North Dakota - Big Sky 64. New Orleans - Southland 65. UNC Central - MEAC 66. Texas Southern - SWAC 67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC 68. UC Davis - Big West

So here's the set S-Curve, and I'm open to sliding teams around if people have questions, provided it's not "Joe Lunardi has Arizona here and you have them here, you are wrong." 1. Kansas 2. Gonzaga - WCC 3. Villanova - Big East 4. Baylor 5. North Carolina 6. West Virginia 7. Louisville 8. Kentucky (SEC) 9. Florida 10. Virginia 11. Purdue 12. UCLA 13. Florida State 14. Duke - ACC 15. Butler 16. Wichita State - MVC 17. Oregon 18. SMU (American) 19. Iowa State - Big 12 20. St. Mary's 21. Maryland 22. Arizona - Pac-12 23. Notre Dame 24. Cincinnati 25. Wisconsin (Big Ten) 26. Michigan 27. Minnesota 28. Virginia Tech 29. Northwestern 30. Creighton 31. Kansas State 32. Oklahoma State 33. Miami FL 34. Vanderbilt 35. South Carolina 36. Arkansas 37. Xavier 38. Wake Forest 39. Michigan State 40. Rhode Island 41. Dayton 42. Seton Hall 43. VCU (Atlantic 10) 44. Providence 45. Marquette 46. Illinois State 47. Nevada - MWC 48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA 49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA 51. East Tennessee State - SoCon 52. Ivy (Princeton) 53. Vermont - America East 54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun 55. Bucknell - Patriot 56. Winthrop - Big South 57. New Mexico State - WAC 58. Iona - MAAC 59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon 50. Sun Belt (Troy) 60. Jacksonville State - OVC 61. Kent State - MAC 62. South Dakota State - Summit 63. North Dakota - Big Sky 64. New Orleans - Southland 65. UNC Central - MEAC 66. Texas Southern - SWAC 67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC 68. UC Davis - Big West

I also believe Syracuse is not going to be in, because they are the perfect example of a team with no profile outside of their home court (and their RPI is 84). I think it's far more likely that Illinois State gets in, or USC. In fact, I'll make an executive decision and slide Illinois State in, and Syracuse out. That would make the lowest RPI team left out as USC at 41, and the highest RPI at large would be Marquette at 60 (aka they are not really safe either).

So here's the bottom of the at-large (seeds 7 through first four) according to me:

Because here's how I see it: A-V-J-K-U-B-T-D-L-C-H-R-M-E-S-P-F-O-Q-G-I-N

Anybody have any input on the last blind poll before I rank em how I see fit?

#29: Hendricks Throws the Playoffs Most Efficient Game Why on the list? - The Cubs had a chance to clinch their first pennant since 1945, and the best pitcher in baseball was lined up for the Dodgers. That hardly mattered to Kyle Hendricks, though, who put on one of the all time great playoff pitching performances, allowing just 3 baserunners on the night, and eliminating two of them immediately on the basepaths. The runners didn't last long though: Toles actually hit Hendricks' first pitch for a single. The second pitch, however, went to Baez and there went the runner. Then Josh Reddick reached on a Baez error with one out in the 2nd. Hendricks let Reddick hang around long enough to see Pederson strike out looking, and then... Then Hendricks didn't allow anything until one out in the 8th, aka WRIGLEY FAN PANIC TIME OMG FIVE OUTS TO GO WE KNOW HOW THIS ENDS. Maddon went and got him then, turning it over to Chapman, who promptly got Pederson to ground into a DP to end the inning.

If anyone but TX Southern wins the SWAC then NCC should get the bye I think NCC gets the bye anyway, and SD State gets slid into the first four (since they weren't the top seed). So I'm expecting the first four to be Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Mount St. Mary's and UC Davis.

Here are yesterday's effects on the bottom of the bracket: 47. Nevada - MWC 48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA 49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA 51. East Tennessee State - SoCon 52. Ivy (Princeton) 53. Vermont - America East 54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun 55. Bucknell - Patriot 56. Winthrop - Big South 57. New Mexico State - WAC 58. Iona - MAAC 59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon 50. Sun Belt (Troy) 60. Jacksonville State - OVC 61. Kent State - MAC 62. South Dakota State - Summit 63. North Dakota - Big Sky 64. New Orleans - Southland 65. UNC Central - MEAC 66. Texas Southern - SWAC 67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC 68. UC Davis - Big West

Yesterday's auto bids and potential bid thievery: - A-10: Rhode Island beat Davidson, eliminating a potential bid thief - A-10: VCU beat Richmond, eliminating a potential bid thief - ACC: Duke won the ACC, opening an extra at-large bid - AMERICAN: SMU beat UCF, eliminating a potential bid thief - AMERICAN: Cincinnati beat UConn, eliminating a potential bid thief - AEAST: Vermont wins the America East as the 1 seed - BIG 12: Iowa State wins the Big 12, opening an extra at-large bid - BIG EAST: Villanova wins the Big East, opening an extra at-large bid - BIG SKY: North Dakota wins the Big Sky as the 1 seed - BIG WEST: 2 seed UC Davis upset 1 seed UC Irvine to win the Big West, and I think they're going to the first four - CUSA: Middle Tennessee wins the CUSA as the 1 seed - MAC: 6 seed Kent State upset 1 seed Akron to win the MAC. Kent State has the basic profile of UC Irvine, so they'll get slotted where Irvine was - MEAC: UNC Central wins the MEAC as the 1 seed - MWC: Nevada wins the MWC as the 1 seed - PAC-12: Arizona wins the Pac-12, opening an extra at-large bid - SEC: Kentucky beat Alabama, eliminating a potential bid thief - SOUTHLAND: New Orleans wins the Southland as the 1 seed - SUN BELT: UT Arlington lost in the Sun Belt semis, dropping the auto bid profile for that league significantly (6 spots or more) - SWAC: Texas Southern wins the SWAC as the 1 seed - WAC: New Mexico State wins the WAC as the 2 seed, but they had the best profile anyway Today's finals feature no potential bid thieves: - A-10: VCU vs Rhode Island - American: SMU vs Cincinnati - B1G: Michigan vs Wisconsin - IVY: Princeton vs Yale - SEC: Kentucky vs Arkansas - SUN BELT: Texas State vs Troy

Theo has given us 26 playoff games already. Before 2015, I had seen the Cubs play 21 total. 26 playoff games. 9 in 2015, 17 in 2016.

I mean, some of the lower at large profiles are really terrible.

And there's a huge drop off in quality if memory serves like a 2 seed drop Yeah, it'll be either Texas State, Georgia State or Troy now, and it's a significant drop in profile regardless. Princeton hangs on to win at Penn.

UNC Central wins the MEAC.

Vermont wins the America East bid. UT Arlington trails by 9 at the half in the Sun Belt semis.

I was there, the collective crowd literally believed we had the power to break Kershaw in this game. I don't know how much of it got picked up by the TV feed, but from the opening hit every time the Cubs were batting the crowd was yelling "KER-SHAW" constantly and cheering for hits.

And yes, that is an at large candidate with a 2-11 road/neutral record, and the 2 wins were by 1 point and in OT.

Here's the blind poll for the last 22 at-larges: Team AdjEM 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200200+ R/N Conf A +21.91 1-3 8-3 6-2 4-0 5-0 9-6 +13.77 B +19.91 1-2 4-3 7-3 7-0 4-0 13-4 +14.82 C +17.01 3-2 2-6 8-5 4-1 2-0 8-9 +12.38 D +22.09 2-9 6-2 5-1 2-0 4-0 9-7 +19.31 E +17.32 1-7 2-6 5-0 8-0 3-0 8-10 +17.27 F +15.76 0-1 2-2 8-1 5-3 8-0 9-5 +4.33 G +12.92 0-3 5-4 7-3 3-2 5-0 5-9 +14.82 H +17.01 2-2 1-3 12-5 2-0 3-0 7-7 +12.38 I +17.58 1-3 5-2 5-7 3-0 5-0 5-9 +14.82 J +16.79 2-3 6-3 6-2 6-0 4-0 7-5 +13.77 K +14.92 3-5 5-2 3-1 5-1 6-0 7-8 +17.27 L +16.95 3-8 3-3 2-0 8-0 5-0 7-9 +17.27 M +15.37 0-4 5-6 6-3 10-0 0-0 9-9 +14.82 N +14.35 3-5 3-3 3-5 4-1 5-0 2-11 +17.27 O +13.97 0-4 6-4 6-2 3-1 6-0 9-9 +14.82 P +14.29 1-1 1-3 5-3 9-1 6-1 9-6 +4.33 Q +14.54 0-1 2-1 6-4 11-0 6-1 10-6 +4.33 R +15.25 0-4 3-2 10-1 6-1 5-0 9-5 +12.38 S +14.95 3-7 3-3 4-3 4-1 4-0 5-12 +13.77 T +17.59 4-8 2-3 4-2 5-0 5-0 9-8 +19.31 U +16.78 2-3 4-5 4-2 9-0 4-0 9-6 +13.77 V +21.57 4-2 4-6 4-3 5-0 5-0 7-8 +13.77

The flyball adventure didn't even stop there, since Baez was up next and he popped it up in the infield and Adrian Gonzalez had to run in at the last minute to take charge and catch it. Also, it didn't make the list, but the Cubs' 3rd run was scored on a Fowler single that he got run down between first and second because he was sure the Dodgers defense was going to screw up again.

Also of note, every 1 seed from a single bid league won yesterday to make their conference final. That means there are 11 1-seeds playing today with a chance to win their auto bid, which has never happened before. So far, only 6 1-bid 1 seeds have lost in their conference tourneys, which could make things interesting in the NIT selection.

#30: Cubs Jump on Kershaw Early in Game 6 Why on the list? - The Cubs came into game 6 with an opportunity to do something they hadn't done for 71 years, to win the pennant. They had this opportunity a couple times before, one time in particular that the announcers couldn't stop talking about. The crowd was excited but nervous because of the history, and because the best pitcher in the game was on the other side. However, the Cubs jumped on Kershaw right away in the first, with 4 well hit balls to the outfield for the first four hitters. Fowler hit one that Reddick had a good view of from 15 feet away, Bryant hit one in about the same spot but harder, Rizzo followed the old adage "hit it where they are", and it worked out like it had for most of the series, as Toles dropped it for a 2-base error, and then Zobrist tried the same but they caught it. By the end of it, though, the Cubs had scored 2 runs and the crowd was rocking from there for the rest of the night.

Things of note: - Oregon is way underseeded here compared to the bracket matrix, but there's no bias involved in the selection, so part of it is their profile is just not that strong in comparison to other teams. The weak Pac-12 hurts their top 50 profile. It's really no better than Wichita State's profile. - Movement among the seeds we already have is still possible, as profiles do keep changing as teams keep winning in conference tournaments, but again keep in mind that the placement thus far was just based on profile, not team name, so if someone thinks Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, Kentucky, or Notre Dame should move up, we should compare their profiles to the teams above them. - I'll get a blind poll set up for those last 22 teams this morning.