mg420

Leadoff and CF was not the only problem. RF was as big a hole as CF last year. Pierre is a mediocre CF, Furcal is a 2nd tier SS, Giles is an outstanding RF. I don't want to hear about the "doesn't want to play here" BS. Players will play where they are offered money. You don't know if Giles wants to come here unless you try and convince him to come here. And if you're turned down early, don't just give up. That can't be your excuse not to go for the best. tell that to todd walker. not every player is an arod or a beltran. everyone here is working on rumors and guesses. even after it is all said and done fans will not know the true story. how do you know the cubs aren't going full guns after him? if he signs somewhere else, i'm sure people will complain the cubs didnt try hard enough to get him.

I'm pretty sure that's not Bill James. maybe you're right. it is a confusing site. my bad.

Making personel decisions based on theoretical specific individual future plays is an absolutely terrible way to go about building a team. You have to get to a position for that stolen base to be meaningful to justify going after a guy strictly for that. Boston had an amazing offense, so they were fine adding a strict stolen base specialist (who by the way was a bench player, not a multi-million dollar starter). If you want that 1 stolen base in the 9th inning in September, I'd be far more interested in calling up Dwaine Bacon for the bench, paying him $300,000 per year and seeing him do his thing, then trading away talent and spending big money on a marginal player when such huge holes are still very evident. And how the hell can you possibly assume that while he might get thrown out in May, he'll clearly be safe in September? Pierre is neither an OBP specialist (.326 in 2005, .355 career) or stolen base god. He's not a guarantee for anything. With Giles, you're guaranteed huge OBP, and at the very least, solid power. whos to say that giles even WANTS to play for the cubs? even if he does & they sign him, he wont hit leadoff or play cf.

and guys who can steal 50+ bases with a potential .370+ obp. but more importantly, guys who can catch the ball. Just like dem White Sox. See, the Sox showed Hendry that if you score less runs but appear to be "scrappy", you'll win the whole shebang. I hate to say it but I think the Sox winning the World Series pushed Hendry to acquire speed this offseason, so he can 'Southside' the offense. #-o Why is speed so bad? The stolen base, when attempted at the right time, is a valuable weapon. The stolen base isn't all that valuable. Especially when you acquire players who steal bases at borderline acceptable rates, and have very few appealing qualities outside of speed. Tell that to the Boston Red Sox and Dave Roberts. I could care less if Pierre gets thrown out trying to steal in the 4th inning of a game against the Pirates in May. I care about the base he'll potentially steal in the 9th inning of a 1 run game in September when we're fighting for the playoffs. The Boston Red Sox aren't even in that situation without all the OBP and power in their lineup. We're going after players who aren't really great at either, and potentially terrible at both. Pierre is just as likely to get caught in that 9th inning situation, but coming up with obscure hypotheticals doesn't change the fact that stolen bases as a whole have significantly less value than other traits we should be targeting. bill james on stealing bases: http://journals.aol.com/georgecoztanza/CoztanzasCommentarty/entries/393

and guys who can steal 50+ bases with a potential .370+ obp. but more importantly, guys who can catch the ball. Just like dem White Sox. See, the Sox showed Hendry that if you score less runs but appear to be "scrappy", you'll win the whole shebang. I hate to say it but I think the Sox winning the World Series pushed Hendry to acquire speed this offseason, so he can 'Southside' the offense. #-o Why is speed so bad? The stolen base, when attempted at the right time, is a valuable weapon. The stolen base isn't all that valuable. Especially when you acquire players who steal bases at borderline acceptable rates, and have very few appealing qualities outside of speed. i think many successful major leauge players & managers would dispute this point with you. i would also consider an obp of .370 an appealing quality for a leadoff man btw (and apparently so do the cubs).

and guys who can steal 50+ bases with a potential .370+ obp.

That's encouraging. 3-year splits Day: .341 .395 .438 .833 Night: .288 .338 .354 .692 Those are pretty drastic numbers. I like the split. But I still don't particularly want Pierre. I'd much rather have Wilkerson. perhaps they can land both of them.

i think the cubs would sooner sign phil bradley than trade for milton bradley.

You really don't respect Jim Bowden's intelligence if you think we're getting Wilkerson for Corey. Not that I'd complain! :P thats the rumor. i'm sure the cubs would have to include another player or 2 but robinson supposedly really likes patterson so who knows? there is another whole thread on the subject. pierre & wilkerson would be a MAJOR improvement in obp for next year so i would be very happy with an of of murton, pierre & wilkerson.

if the cubs get pierre for 2 minor leauge players, i see them trading cp to the nationals for wilkerson and put him in rf.

If Hendry wouldn't trade Hill for Dunn, why would he trade him and another player for Pierre? And knowing Hendry's history of trades, doesn't it seem highly unlikely he would trade 2 of his top LH pitching prospects? Hah, didn't he trade D-Train to the Marlins? andy MacPhail was the gm that made that trade.

i am assuming that the cubs trade for pierre to play cf. if they sign furcal, i wouldnt mind seeing wilkerson in cf & floyd in right. as far as an impact bat, a guy with a 4 yr ave obp + slg of .828 sounds very productive to me (especillay considering the home parks he played in those 4 years). i can see him putting up .850-.900 in wrigley.

whats wrong with an of of murton, pierre & wilkerson or floyd? assuming they dont sign furcal or trade walker, a line up of pierre walker lee wilkerson or floyd aram murton cedeno barrett sounds good to me.

Wilkerson in CF, Floyd in RF? thats ok but unless furcal is signed, they still dont have a leadoff man. with his power, i think it is a misuse of his talent to bat wilkerson 1st. how would it be if the cards do sign giles but the cubs trade for pierre & either wilkerson or floyd? i guess it depends on what they give up to get those 2 guys.

at this point i would rather have wilkerson if he's available. although his ba & rbi # dont look great, in his 4 years he has an average obp + slg of .828 with a high of .872 in 2004. as has been mentioned, maybe hendry sees another barrett type player who just needs a change of scenery & a different home park to hit in. his arm is certainly strong enough for rf. that said,floyd would be a great 2nd choice though if brad is not available.

murton in lf, pierre in cf & wilkerson in rf? other than giles, abreu & tracy (is he available & can he play rf?), i havent heard of many possibilities for a left handed powerhitting rf. at least wlikerson would be much better than mench imo.

But would you rather have two years of Abreu or 4 years of Giles, who is almost certainly going to decline? as has been said many times before, it depends on what abreu would cost prospect wise. i dont see hendry giving up murton, pie or hill for anyone at this point. giles will only cost $$ (assuming he even wants to play for the cubs). Nah you are right, I was just saying that I personally would rather have Giles and that Abreu is probably worth his 15 million considering what Giles will probably make. i agree. i would rather have giles too.

But would you rather have two years of Abreu or 4 years of Giles, who is almost certainly going to decline? as has been said many times before, it depends on what abreu would cost prospect wise. i dont see hendry giving up murton, pie or hill for anyone at this point. giles will only cost $$ (assuming he even wants to play for the cubs).

neither was dontrell and look how he ended up. if hill can come up with a decent 3rd pitch (like a cutter or straight change) to go along with the low 90's fb & awesome curve, he will end up being a very good ml starter. You do know that Dontrelle is two years younger than Hill, right? what does that matter? hills still young. it just took him longer to harness his stuff & find his control. hill has better stuff than dontrell imo. alot of willis's success has to do with his command & deceptive delivery. Why does dontrelle matter? You can't evaluate every players value based on one guy you misjudged. Willis should have absolutely nothing to do with how you evaluate Hill. I'm pleased to hear Hendry is considering Bradley though - its encouraging that he isn't completely close-minded. Given what is being sought, Bradley, Pierre, Mench, Hendry should be turning away from offering Pie, Murton or Hill. Those names should be reserved for discussions about players like Dunn or Abreu. actually MacPhail traded dontrelle, not hendry. that said, the point was regarding a "cant miss" prospect" of which there is no such thing imo. hendry obviously thinks enough of murton, pie & hill to make them untouchable (according to the report) in trade talks.

neither was dontrell and look how he ended up. if hill can come up with a decent 3rd pitch (like a cutter or straight change) to go along with the low 90's fb & awesome curve, he will end up being a very good ml starter. You do know that Dontrelle is two years younger than Hill, right? what does that matter? hills still young. it just took him longer to harness his stuff & find his control. hill has better stuff than dontrell imo. alot of willis's success has to do with his command & deceptive delivery.

neither was dontrell and look how he ended up. if hill can come up with a decent 3rd pitch (like a cutter or straight change) to go along with the low 90's fb & awesome curve, he will end up being a very good ml starter.

actually its more like "get a leadoff hitter to get on in front of lee & aram AND keep the starters healthy and make the playoffs."

either pierre or crisp would be great for cf imo. hopefully hendry will be able to snag 1 of the 2. with all the focus on ss & cf, there hasnt been much news on rf other than mench (who would be a significant downgrade imo).

Exactly. By then Cedeno would have been ready, IMO. Or, if not, then I'm sure the SS crop next year would be better. There is NO NEED to throw a buttload of money at Furcal when we have at least 2 other options. forget about nomar. cenedo's ready now.

barring a trade, i think the cubs have enough sp. prior, z, wood, & maddux (assuming he's coming back-hopefully he's not) are locks. williams, rusch & hill can all compete for the #5 spot. even if wood gets hurt again, 1 of those 3 can step in. in the minors guys like pinto, nolasco & guzman could also get a shot this year. i hope hendry concentrates on getting a lead off hitter & filling the 2 of spots before he thinks about getting another starter.