indifferent

Fluff? How so? Either fluff or history. No one knows, including Rolen, what he'll be able to do this year. So far, there've been no setbacks, he's hitting for a good avg. this spring, and his power isn't quite there yet (which is expected and not unlike a lot of other ballplayers). Make of it what you will.

Basically a recap of last year. Of course, there's uncertainty, he's coming off two shoulder surgeries. It's a big storyline for the Cards, but sounded like fluff to me.

In fairness, I included the injury caveat when I first proposed the bet. Also, if Spivey doesn't play, that doesn't count as an injury. And unlike Vance's bet, mine only refers to Spivey, it doesn't include any other player at 2nd. I don't see what's so "weak" about this bet. Vance, do I owe you a hat if Spivey is released outright or traded (could be a very realistic possibility) or is the bet off?

OK, last question. What's the bigger event, Vance's 20,000th post or Erik's wedding?

If there's one spot, who's the favorite, Guzman or Marshall?

wow step out on that limb.... lee's power dips a bit(shoulder) but his obp and RBI's go up carp...cant see him getting better, or even repeating, he wont be the "meh" guy he was in toronto, but he'll win more thanhe loses with an ERA in the low 4's ERA in the low 4's, yep, you're right. You do recall he had a 3.5 ERA the year before? My predictions: Lee .295 .385 .550 Carpenter 3.25 ERA 1.2 WHIP .255 BAA

How will these two studs from last year (their career years) fare this year? Please post the line you expect.

What the word out of Chicago? Does Pagan have a chance of replacing Grissom off the bench?

Man, and you guys make fun of Ponson? Rusch is no slim jim.

I don't like this move Vance. It's smart on paper, but remember that these are the Cubs and Cards you are talking about. Chances are the Walker and/or Hairston will get hurt, and the Cubs will sign Macias and platoon him with Perez at 2B. Meanwhile, Spivey will stay healthy all year and put up numbers at or above his career best. Can't see you winning this one, buddy. Did you mean to use your sarcasm font, Truffle? So far this spring, Spivey's made Macias look like a HOFer. Spivey will be lucky (although I'm not so sure the Cards will) to make the starting 2b spot.

We'll see. I think I might have to go http://www.wrigleyvillesports.com and pick one out now! Don't think there's a chance I'll win this one, just backing up my bold talk. Anyone want to make me a bet I can win? I bet you a drink you'll never come visit me at Zoe's. You have approximately 10 weeks to cash in on this. I move from STL at the start of June. You're so on.

Not to mention, Bigbie, our LF starting candidate (although LaRussa all along has said Taguchi was the front runner) could have a stress fracture in his foot. So we have So (and possibly JRod platooning).

I have to concur with BeerHere regarding these announcers, "Dusty Baker's not the problem (in a screeching voice), Dusty had them 4 outs away from the World Series in 03"!

Cubs fans, how's Mabry doing for you in ST? From what I can see, his numbers look like what you'd expect from a bench player with a little pop.

They did give kudos to the Cubs starting rotation, saying it would be the best rotation in baseball if Wood and Prior would stay healthy.

Vance, do you have a new outlet to listen to them on XM yet?

Three guesses: 1. They've contracted Woody Williamsitis. 2. They're all on the construction team at new Busch and a large object fell on their heads. 3. Fresh batch of koolaid made? 4. It's spring training, optimism abounds!

While I agree they shipped off the right outfield, Arroyo is no more than a 5th starter and I think they could have actually received a 3rd starter. Failed to mention the Womack signing when they have Freel and the best they can do as their starting first baseman is Hatteberg? Why take the punch out of the best lineup in the NL?

We'll see. I think I might have to go http://www.wrigleyvillesports.com and pick one out now! Don't think there's a chance I'll win this one, just backing up my bold talk. Anyone want to make me a bet I can win?

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him. How about this? I'll take the wager with your injury caveat as long as the bet is cancelled if Walker is traded before the end of ST. OK, the above stats, BA, OBP, SLG? As long as you're open to addtl. wagers if the bet is canceled :D ? So we have deal is void if Walker is traded or Spivey is injured for longer than 3 wks. No other caveats, if it's close in the three stats, how do we decide? Prize is Cubs or Cards hat of choice. Sounds good. The above stats work. Tie breaker can either be VORP or WARP. Not to complicate matters, but are we just going off best 2 or 3 categories? Or look at all three stats and agree who was the best player? We can look at all three. Why not take BA and OPS (as OPS combines Slg and OBP.) If those are too close to call, we move to WARP. I'm not opposed to OPS, but I don't want BA to get too much weight (and it shouldn't anyway), as Spivey most likely will lose that category to any of your three. I'm fine with BA, OBP, SLG though. Ok. We can use all three categories. Deal Do I win this bet if Spivey is cut before Opening Day? :P So far, Spivey's line this spirng: 056/190/056. That's horrible! Surprised you haven't called me out on this again. I'll still take the bet.

They ship Casey out of town who, while not your prototypical 1st baseman, was a good fit in front of their sluggers with his high OBP only to pick up Dave Williams (do I need to elaborate here?). Then they move Dunn to 1st base which makes sense as they did have a surplus of outfielders. They have no closer and all candidates are having a poor spring. Heck, Graves is looking better than their candidates. They release Josh Hancock because he was supposedly 17 lbs. overweight. I'm not saying Hancock is a stud, but their pitching has been horrible. Why not hang on to him? He's doing well for the Cards and will probably make the team. Lastly, they trade Pena for Arroyo, a mediocre starter who was perennially challenged for a spot in Boston's rotation and never trusted to start in the playoffs. They could have received a better starter in trade, if only because outfielders are at a higher premium than ever. Forgot to mention, moved Dunn back to LF and going with Hatteberg ?!? as their starting 1st baseman. Hatteberg <<< Casey who they started out with. What gives? The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Please do it, that way he won't last long for the 5th spot.

Wins wouldn't show you if a guy started 20 times or 33 times. Games started would tell you that. Look at G and IP if you are interested in his ability to produce over time. But there is a correlation, as a pitcher with a lower win total might not have started many games. I get your point though, might as well go directly to the source.

While Clemens was the most absurd abberation, I'll add three thoughts. 1. Wins is a more useful tool to the team in gauging pitchers than as a means of evaluating the said pitcher (if that makes any sense at all). 2. If a pitcher has a low ERA and great peripherals, but can only offer you 20 starts then a counting stat like wins (and IP) shows that. 3. Just as pitchers receive low run support or shoddy bullpen support, a pitchers ERA over the course of the season can be comprised of some great games and some real stinkers (i.e. Matt Morris of 04 and 05). So you have some consistency issues there. Similar to piling on batters stats in garbage time, does it really help a team out when you're pitching lights out on a day you you get 7 runs of support, but choke up that extra run in a close one? I know a pitcher can't control this, but it affects the team. This is where another unpopular stat was contrived, the quality start. A means to determine how consistent a pitcher is within the capsule of a single game. I also wouldn't place wins in the top 5 stats to gauge a pitcher, but I wouldn't discount it either.

His W-L record isn't really the issue. At all. or any pitcher for that matter. BTW dont dismiss record completely it does factor in, it is the ultimate measure of success. I know it isnt something the pitcher has complete control over, but in the end it doesnt matter if you had 200 plus strikeouts and a great ERA, if you didnt win games you werent a success. Also when you look at the numbers it is a strong indicator of success in wins, if you have the above stats then you most likely will have a good record, but it doesnt guarentee it. A W is all that matters at the end of the day. I may very well be wrong, but thats just how I feel :D Thanks for defending yourself. I've never seen a bad pitcher win games consistantly. It's only one stat, but one that gets dismissed to often by stat boys. I've seen a lot of good pitchers not win games consistently. You'll also notice that when this topic is brought up you never see wins brought up as a point that proves a pitcher's positive value. It's only in instances where pitchers don't have a win total do people question their worth, which makes your "bad pitcher consistently winning games" comment less germane to the discussion. I actually agree with the new poster, wins are still a fairly important stat. I tend to think pitchers of Zambrano's stature are less the norm than 4.00 ERA pitchers (as an example) with better win/loss record. K/9, WHIP, pure Ks for the season don't mean much unless a starting pitcher can throw at least 30 starts. Not to mention a pitcher like Mulder whose K/9 and WHIP apparently is rising, but those stats have been for awhile and he still knows how to win ballgames. I think some credit has to go to guys that know how to win.