indifferent

Meh, Reyes is overrated. Let the best pitcher win the 5th spot, if that is Ponson than so be it. If Reyes is outpitched by Ponson, some stars will have aligned in a form I have never seen before. At this stage, it's all spec. but I can't see Ponson even coming close to outpitching Reyes. I agree, Reyes should win. However, I refuse to be close minded about Ponson. CFICT, I hope to give you the respect your posting here deserves. But I refuse to buy into this Ponson hype that is accorded to everyone that dons a Cardinal uniform, after the initial dismay. Ponson never was an elite pitcher and although his numerous alcohol-related arrests points to a reason, I'm shying away from this feel good story. The fact that he's even considered as competition for a starting spot and spring training will be the "showdown" is insulting to me and it should be insulting to Anthony Reyes. Hopefully that will prove motivating to Reyes and not de-motivating. As Wolf has said before, you can't teach healthy. That being said I'm not going to boo him on the mound if he happens to win the job over Reyes. I'm just going to wait for the other shoe to drop and lament Reyes' dwindling chances to prove himself while still with the Cards.

If I haven't already expressed my agreement, I'm doing so now. All these arguments about "the best case scenario is Reyes in AAA means Ponson is doing well and gives Reyes more seasoning" doesn't fly with me. Put your best team on the field, period. Just because Ponson doesn't blow up in the early goings doesn't tell me the Cards are putting their best team on the field. Put him on a pitch count, but I'll still take Reyes 8 times out of a 7 day week.

This statement to me is the nail in the coffin for McLane and the Astros. If they don't have evidence he's done anything to aggravate his injury since the playoffs, how are they able to refute the fact they deemed him healthy enough to activate him for the playoffs?

I don't know, I'd kinda like to have something legitimate to grouse about all season. That would be worse than any mishandling Dusty could possibly do to the 25 man roster.

I think that's the point Wolf was making. The Cards were ranked third in the division by most of the pundits in 04. They're returning their starting rotation with the exception of Morris who can no longer be regarded as an anchor to any staff. What exactly have the Cards done to downgrade that significantly vs. other teams moves in NL Central?

If Wood were on the market today, what we he garner? Just curious to see what everyone here thinks.

They're mediocrity must just be highly underappreciated. I think I saw one Card on the list, I guess they're highly overappreciated. Marquis' been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors, but I'd have to say rightfully so.

about zero is not zero. its slightly greater than zero but not much. Just give it up that zero was an exaggeration and we'll be good to go. Many great people have admitted such tales and still held their stature.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him. How about this? I'll take the wager with your injury caveat as long as the bet is cancelled if Walker is traded before the end of ST. OK, the above stats, BA, OBP, SLG? As long as you're open to addtl. wagers if the bet is canceled :D ? So we have deal is void if Walker is traded or Spivey is injured for longer than 3 wks. No other caveats, if it's close in the three stats, how do we decide? Prize is Cubs or Cards hat of choice. Sounds good. The above stats work. Tie breaker can either be VORP or WARP. Not to complicate matters, but are we just going off best 2 or 3 categories? Or look at all three stats and agree who was the best player? We can look at all three. Why not take BA and OPS (as OPS combines Slg and OBP.) If those are too close to call, we move to WARP. I'm not opposed to OPS, but I don't want BA to get too much weight (and it shouldn't anyway), as Spivey most likely will lose that category to any of your three. I'm fine with BA, OBP, SLG though. Ok. We can use all three categories. Deal

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him. How about this? I'll take the wager with your injury caveat as long as the bet is cancelled if Walker is traded before the end of ST. OK, the above stats, BA, OBP, SLG? As long as you're open to addtl. wagers if the bet is canceled :D ? So we have deal is void if Walker is traded or Spivey is injured for longer than 3 wks. No other caveats, if it's close in the three stats, how do we decide? Prize is Cubs or Cards hat of choice. Sounds good. The above stats work. Tie breaker can either be VORP or WARP. Not to complicate matters, but are we just going off best 2 or 3 categories? Or look at all three stats and agree who was the best player? We can look at all three. Why not take BA and OPS (as OPS combines Slg and OBP.) If those are too close to call, we move to WARP. I'm not opposed to OPS, but I don't want BA to get too much weight (and it shouldn't anyway), as Spivey most likely will lose that category to any of your three. I'm fine with BA, OBP, SLG though.

As I said, undervalued is a nebulous term and the fact these teams have them on the 25 man rosters shows they value them to some extent. Three things that might mean a player is undervalued in my world is they are being paid low $ compared to their value (mostly applies to free agent signings), they are under or wrongly utilized by their current teams, or they have been mentioned in trade talks.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him. How about this? I'll take the wager with your injury caveat as long as the bet is cancelled if Walker is traded before the end of ST. OK, the above stats, BA, OBP, SLG? As long as you're open to addtl. wagers if the bet is canceled :D ? So we have deal is void if Walker is traded or Spivey is injured for longer than 3 wks. No other caveats, if it's close in the three stats, how do we decide? Prize is Cubs or Cards hat of choice. Sounds good. The above stats work. Tie breaker can either be VORP or WARP. Not to complicate matters, but are we just going off best 2 or 3 categories? Or look at all three stats and agree who was the best player?

Because if you choose Dunn, then Rocket Sauce will choose Dunn ten times over and it will be anarchy!

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him. How about this? I'll take the wager with your injury caveat as long as the bet is cancelled if Walker is traded before the end of ST. OK, the above stats, BA, OBP, SLG? As long as you're open to addtl. wagers if the bet is canceled :D ? So we have deal is void if Walker is traded or Spivey is injured for longer than 3 wks. No other caveats, if it's close in the three stats, how do we decide? Prize is Cubs or Cards hat of choice.

I dont think either of those guys are undervalued by their teams, mine would be 1. Walker 2. Javier Valentin 3. Jody Gerut- I think he will have a good year this year. Yeah, the "undervalued" thing is a nebulous term, as no one really knows what the heck these GMs are thinking. I guess one indication is the dollar amount of their contract which would eliminate Pettitte. Sorry if this belongs on Polls.

Name the player you'd most want from an NL Central rival who you think is undervalued by their current organization (Dunn is not included in this game!). And again it's not whether the fan base undervalues them, but their organization. Also, not a prospect, because that could take this topic all over the map and some just aren't as familiar with other teams prospects. For me (although I'm biased because I only spend time here as far as rival boards go): 1. Murton 2. Walker 3. Davis or Capuano Caveat (I don't think Pitt undervalues Duke or Maholm).

It was hard for us to take your injuries too seriously when guys like John Rodriguez and Abraham O. Nunez and So Taguchi immediately jumped in and hit .280+ and outperformed not only just about every other bench player in the league, but also many starters. OK, but I just showed where the loss of Rolen as an example cost us hypothetically 30 runs over the course of a season. You won 100 games. That wasn't enough? :wink: Just playing. I'm not looking forward to having to face Rolen again this season. He kills us. :D Teams are constructed financially in a certain manner and if say, Grudz goes down instead of Rolen for the season, the fact that a bench player comes up and plays well in his stead, the Cards lose far less than if it were Rolen. My biggest fear is that Rolen is damaged goods, career-wise.

It was hard for us to take your injuries too seriously when guys like John Rodriguez and Abraham O. Nunez and So Taguchi immediately jumped in and hit .280+ and outperformed not only just about every other bench player in the league, but also many starters. OK, but I just showed where the loss of Rolen as an example cost us hypothetically 30 runs over the course of a season.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You initially said that you liked your chances Walker and Hairston will play enough. Another wild card in the equation is Spivey gets off to a slow start or loses his starting slot due to injury, no there's no telling if Luna or Miles will steal time from him.

The numbers don't factor in Baker and his usage of Neifi. I'm relying on Baker to assure me of victory. So then it's not that you really believe that Spivey > Cubs 2b, you just think Baker is "creative" enough to ensure the least amount of production out of the position? Yep, that's pretty correct. I just saw the blog on BTF where Hendry told Walker he'd be competing against Perez and Hairston for the starting spot in ST. Plus, I still don't think Walker will be there. I do think Spivey will outproduce Perez and Hairston.

The numbers don't factor in Baker and his usage of Neifi. I'm relying on Baker to assure me of victory.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You look at PECOTA, but I think Spivey is severely underrated by everyone because of his last two injury marred years. All signs indicate that he's healthy headed into the season who knows how long that will last. I know you're fond of most recent 3 yr. avg. numbers, but for obvious reasons, that's not fair to Spivey. His career numbers including his horrific last two years look like this: .270/.354/.436. The guy just turned 31. I predict a repeat of Grudz and his two heavily injured seasons and then a full healthy season with the Cards (only difference is Spivey's 06 numbers will be better than Grudz's 05 numbers and while Grudz when playing was still solid where Spivey was horrid). That said I'll only take you up on your wager, if there's a void clause if Spivey's injured for three straight weeks. You can have the void clause only if I get one if Dusty insists on starting Neifi at 2b for more than 30 games. Hold on, now you're taking the this out of context of my original wager. My original wager wasn't based so much on Spivey being great or better than Todd Walker for that matter, but rather the mix of players and who would end up with playing time. Besides, you'd expect 30 games at a position for a backup at any position. Remove the injury caveat then. Cubs 2b > Spivey. If Spivey gets hurt, that's still part of the equation. Sorry, wager's off then! Spivey being healthy and Perez and Hairston getting ample playing time is the crux of my wager. I'd say most betting people would do it just because the PECOTA you showed me for Walker and Hairston alone is far greater than Spivey's. C'mon, the numbers don't lie!

Another thing to consider... While everyone's weighed in on how lucky/rare it is to have all five starters start 30 games or more, I think you need to consider the Cards position player injuries the Cards had last year. If Rolen turns in the production of what Pecota and ZIPs peg him, given 550 ABs (and filling in Deivi Cruz for the remaining at bats), you come up with 105 runs created. Last year the Cards 3rd basemen combo had 74 runs created. That's a difference of approx. 30 runs made up at one position. The Cards lost 50 runs from the year before. Granted, Edmonds and Rolen had career years in 04, but we also lost Rolen, Walker, Sanders, and Molina (his replacements' numbers were more abyssmal than Yadi's) for extended periods of time last year. I think we can at least match the 805 runs from last year.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You look at PECOTA, but I think Spivey is severely underrated by everyone because of his last two injury marred years. All signs indicate that he's healthy headed into the season who knows how long that will last. I know you're fond of most recent 3 yr. avg. numbers, but for obvious reasons, that's not fair to Spivey. His career numbers including his horrific last two years look like this: .270/.354/.436. The guy just turned 31. I predict a repeat of Grudz and his two heavily injured seasons and then a full healthy season with the Cards (only difference is Spivey's 06 numbers will be better than Grudz's 05 numbers and while Grudz when playing was still solid where Spivey was horrid). That said I'll only take you up on your wager, if there's a void clause if Spivey's injured for three straight weeks. You can have the void clause only if I get one if Dusty insists on starting Neifi at 2b for more than 30 games. Hold on, now you're taking the this out of context of my original wager. My original wager wasn't based so much on Spivey being great or better than Todd Walker for that matter, but rather the mix of players and who would end up with playing time. Besides, you'd expect 30 games at a position for a backup at any position.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You look at PECOTA, but I think Spivey is severely underrated by everyone because of his last two injury marred years. All signs indicate that he's healthy headed into the season who knows how long that will last. I know you're fond of most recent 3 yr. avg. numbers, but for obvious reasons, that's not fair to Spivey. His career numbers including his horrific last two years look like this: .270/.354/.436. The guy just turned 31. I predict a repeat of Grudz and his two heavily injured seasons and then a full healthy season with the Cards (only difference is Spivey's 06 numbers will be better than Grudz's 05 numbers and while Grudz when playing was still solid where Spivey was horrid). That said I'll only take you up on your wager, if there's a void clause if Spivey's injured for three straight weeks.