a post that captures why casinos make tons and tons of money Casinos make lots and lots of money because their patrons don't understand regression to the mean. Apparently, other folks don't either. For a board that has so many posters preaching objective analysis, they sure are terribly subjective and biased when it comes to their anointed villains and persona non gratas. Actually, the real reason casinos make money is that the odds of every game are stacked sometimes, more and sometimes less, in their favor. As an individual, you may have a 45-49% chance to "win" in a given game, and you can win with those odds when you play a few times if you get "lucky". However, over hundreds and thousands of plays, the percentages win out, and the casinos have winnings that reflect roughly what their chances of winning the games are. If you believe that over time, there will be regression to the mean, you are correct. If you believe that this fact will favor you in casino games, you are wrong. But none of that has anything to do with this discussion. Guessing baseball player numbers is less like gambling and more like picking stocks. It isn't totally dependent on random chance so you can make some predictions about what will happen. You can say a guy with a .700 career OPS over 7 big league seasons is unlikely to suddenly hit for a .900 OPS. Jones numbers will probably be better in the 2nd half, but how much better is an open question. As for the Pie situation, it's the classic large market team problem with rookies. If they don't produce, they don't stick, because the large market team is usually trying to contend and usually has the resources to go out and get someone better. How many Yankee prospects hit under .250 their first season in the past decade? As one dealer told me "Casino's make money because they have more money then you. "