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JGalt73

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Everything posted by JGalt73

  1. JGalt73
    I must admit I'm confused on the methodology - or there's an error. I can't imagine that the Cubs could be the best run scoring team in the NL - including besting the Mets (predicted 785 RS)?
  2. JGalt73
    NL Central Chicago 85-77 Milwaukee 84-78 St.Louis 81-81 Houston 79-83 Pittsburgh 77-85 Cincinatti 71-91 Based on their playing time projections and PECOTA: Cubs Runs Scored/Allowed: 828 / 789 Brewers RS/RA: 781 / 748 Cardinals RS/RA: 730 / 734 Astros RS/RA: 761 / 783 Pirates RS/RA: 751 / 795 Reds RS/RA: 745 / 841
  3. JGalt73
    http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/272130,CST-SPT-cubnt25.article Lets Hope that it is nothing serious. And so it begins...
  4. JGalt73
    Kevin Goldstein at BP had him ranked as the #7 Cubs prospect overall, and the #4 pitcher behind Veal, Gallagher, and Pawelek. 7. Jeff Samardzija, RHP The Good: Was in the low 90s in 2005, touching the mid-90s at the beginning of this year, and pumping the occasional 99 on the gun by the end of the season. Tall, strong, and athletic with nearly the ideal power pitcher's build. The Bad: Baseball is still secondary to football, so he's raw; control, location, and breaking ball all lag behind; a straightforward delivery makes him more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point; commitment to waiting for the NFL Draft means he won't play first full season until he's 23. In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A power pitcher; it's hard to say anything more at this point. Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High, and that's a concern for a college player. The record bonus is what it is, and plays no role in his ranking, but feelings on Samardzija fall into two camps. He's either far too raw to ever make it, or a potentially perfect diamond in the rough who is already a late first-round talent despite having little baseball experience. We won't know which sport he commits to until next spring.
  5. JGalt73
    I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year. If James projects DeRosa keeping up last year's stats based on his switch from the AL to the mighty NLC, I guess I can understand that. I still don't want him hitting 3rd. Bill James' DeRosa line: 444 AB, 10 HR, .273/.333./.408
  6. JGalt73
    Per the Baseball Musings lineup generator (and using Bill James' 2007 projections): Best lineup (5.303 runs/g): Murton Lee Derosa Ramirez Barrett Soriano Jones Pitcher Izturis Izturis is at the bottom of every "best" setup. Interestingly (sadly?), the soriano and izturis 1,2 punch peppers the worst possible lineups - granted, these include batting lee at the bottom of the order.
  7. JGalt73
    http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20031014_Marlins_Cubs_0.png I love (hate) this graph of the win probability of the game (Fangraphs.com).
  8. JGalt73
    Bill James? The father of modern sabermetrics? I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal. I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well. you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL. I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24.
  9. JGalt73
    Absolutely - Hendry needs to ignore his scouts. But at least he has a bit of data to support a slower DECLINE in 3rd basemen... http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4464_8.gif
  10. JGalt73
    Using Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP1) from BP: In 2005: Soriano (4.0) + Jones (4.5) = 8.5 wins Furcal (8.6) + Pierre (3.5) = 12.1 wins In 2006: Soriano (8.6) + Jones (4.2 WARP1) = 12.8 wins Furcal (7.9) + Pierre (3.8) = 11.7 wins In 2007: ?? Looks like Soriano's the wildcard
  11. JGalt73
    Per Gammons, Lugo out of the picture:
  12. JGalt73
    Per Gammons, Soriano takes Lugo out of the Cubs equation...
  13. JGalt73
    Baseball Musings just posted their defensive numbers for LF in 2006. Soriano was middle of the pack. Murton was 8th in the league.
  14. JGalt73
    Soriano was not in the top 10 or even the top 25 for best offensive players in the league last year... he was the 33rd best offensive player (VORP). He WAS, however, about 30 runs better than Pierre. Unfortunately, I am pretty sure that a 30 run upgrade still makes our offense at or below average. (With 30 more runs last year we're like Soriano's old team and tied for 10th in runs in the NL.) Perhaps with a health Lee and the removal of the negative runs from Cedeno, this could be improved more. But even with an optmistic 40 more runs from those spots this would still be a second tier NL offense. I fear that adding a $17M player likely ends the offensive upgrade.
  15. JGalt73
    Here's the list...
  16. JGalt73
    Just for fun, last year PECOTA pegged his 2007 production at replacement level and declined to rank 2008 or beyond as he was predicted to be out of baseball with only a 1/3 shot at remaining in the league in 2007.
  17. JGalt73
  18. JGalt73
    Keith Law at ESPN weighs in...
  19. JGalt73
    I think we should have known that Ramirez would not be signed when he started showing up on lists as the #1 free agent on the market. Signing the best players has rarely been the Cubs MO.
  20. JGalt73
  21. JGalt73
    The Green Fields of the Mind - A season ending must-read.
  22. JGalt73
    Still a bit arbitrary, but at least defined...
  23. JGalt73
    The ALCS is over, Lou Piniella is now available... let the short-sighted, inside the box, lightning in a bottle, managerial retread begin!
  24. JGalt73
    Bruce, Great work. I'm curious as to your take on the influence of Baker (or any Cubs skipper) on the personnel decisions of Jim Hendry. Is there a bigger influence with in season call-ups than there is during offseason acquisitions? Do you have a thought on the percentage of the personnel decision that the manger infuses into the proceedings? Thanks!
  25. JGalt73
    $1 billion dollars of payroll over the last 6 years doesn't buy what it used to!
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