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JGalt73

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Everything posted by JGalt73

  1. JGalt73
    I'm guessing Eyre gets ticked off that he's being used as a (deserved) sacrificial lamb here and starts throwing (more) balls down the middle.
  2. JGalt73
    Wow, Scott Eyre is a human punching bag... I'm guessing he's sent to the DL with a mystery injury tomorrow.
  3. JGalt73
    9 outs = 9 hits, 9 runs...
  4. JGalt73
    From Maury Brown of BP and The Biz of Baseball.
  5. JGalt73
    If you go with the best first half of the season approach, Zambrano is not an All-Star this year. His "first season" can't be ignored...Zambrano is currently 33rd in the NL in VORP at 14.8. The trio of Rich Hill (13th in NL, 24.9), Ted Lilly (28th , 15.9), and Sean Marshall (32nd, 15.0) are better by this metric on his own team. Via SNLVAR, another marker of a pitcher's value, Z is 23rd in the NL and trails Rich Hill (15th NL) of his own team. If any Cub pitcher is an All-Star this year it is Rich Hill.
  6. JGalt73
    Looks like the Cubs will take a hit in stolen bases against... Rob Bowen has thrown out 11% of baserunners this year and 10% in his career. Michael Barret has thrown out 17% this year and 23% in his career.
  7. JGalt73
    7 run comeback to tie the game 9-9... and counting...
  8. JGalt73
    The Hardball Times (via Baseball Info Solutions) will start running 2007 to date leaders on defense soon. The league leaders (and trailers) are here. The Cubs' zone rating data so far for '07 (in runs prevented): Daryle Ward 1B 2 Mark DeRosa 1B -1 Derrek Lee 1B -5 Mark DeRosa 2B 1 Mike Fontenot 2B 0 Ronny Cedeno 2B 0 Ryan S Theriot 2B -1 Mark DeRosa 3B 0 Ryan S Theriot 3B 0 Aramis Ramirez 3B -4 Ronny Cedeno SS 2 Cesar Izturis SS 0 Ryan S Theriot SS -1 Matt Murton LF 3 Cliff Floyd LF 1 Alfonso Soriano LF 1 Ryan S Theriot LF 0 Jacque Jones LF -1 Angel Pagan CF 1 Felix Pie CF 0 Jacque Jones CF 0 Matt Murton CF -1 Alfonso Soriano CF -1 Jacque Jones RF 3 Angel Pagan RF 2 Mark DeRosa RF 1 Ryan S Theriot RF -1 Matt Murton RF -2 Cliff Floyd RF -3
  9. JGalt73
    Does anybody know that percentage of times you can expect at least one run? From Tangotiger 99-02 With the bases loaded and 0 outs, chances that: 0 runs score: 12.8% 1 run scores: 25.5% 2 runs score: 21.1% 3 runs score: 14.3% 4 runs score: 13.4% 5+ runs score: 13.0% So the Cubs have been more likely to score more than 5 runs than 0 runs, and have consistently "beat" the odds...
  10. JGalt73
    On average, teams score 2.3 runs when presented with the bases loaded nobody out... it kills me every time the Cubs fail to get even one.
  11. JGalt73
    BP keeps a stat on the quality of pitchers faced by every player. This is the aggregate of what the pitchers that have been faced have given up AVG/OBP/SLG. J.D. Drew BOS 185 PA .258/.344/.401 Bobby Abreu NYA 227 PA .244/.329/.381 Jacque Jones CHN 170 PA .246/.328/.384 J.D. Drew has faced the "easiest" pitching (how often does he play the NYY...)
  12. JGalt73
    I don't usually say this, but... a WTF? is in order.
  13. JGalt73
    Will the Cubs hit a home run on this entire trip?
  14. JGalt73
    Using WXRL (Lineup-adjusted Win Expectation above Replacement: win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games) from Baseball Prospectus - the Cubs "Top" Relievers are: 1. Ryan Dempster 0.982 2. Michael Wuertz 0.310 3. Neal Cotts 0.165 4. Angel Guzman 0.108 5. Carlos Marmol 0.011 6. Rocky Cherry -0.085 7. Will Ohman -0.291 8. Bob Howry -0.337 9. Scott Eyre -1.008 VORP for relievers (Guzman excluded): 1. Michael Wuertz 7.5 2. Rocky Cherry 2.6 3. Ryan Dempster 2.2 4. Will Ohman 1.4 5. Carlos Marmol 1.2 6. Bob Howry 1.1 7. Neal Cotts 1.0 8. Scott Eyre -3.3
  15. JGalt73
    Thanks... that is horribly confirming analysis of what we've been seeing in real time... this will not end well for the Cubs. Does it ever? Good point.
  16. JGalt73
    Thanks... that is horribly confirming analysis of what we've been seeing in real time... this will not end well for the Cubs.
  17. JGalt73
    Sun-Times
  18. JGalt73
    Eyre currently ranks 458th of 461 relievers in adding to team wins from the bullpen (BP's WXRL). So when you say he's bad, there are only 3 relief pitchers that have been worse all year...
  19. JGalt73
    http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20070517_Cubs_Mets_0.png From a 98% chance of winning to a loss... A-Mazin'.
  20. JGalt73
    From BP today...
  21. JGalt73
    On the statistical side (per Baseball Prospectus), the Cubs have the 4th best rotation and the 5th worst bullpen in the NL. The Milwaukee bullpen has added about 3 more wins to their team than the Cubs' bullpen.
  22. JGalt73
  23. JGalt73
    There is no single link, they are complied from BP's subscription projection pages. For an idea of what a single page tells you... click here.
  24. JGalt73
    Yankees 93-69 Red Sox 93-69 Blue Jays 80-82 Devil Rays 77-85 Orioles 74-88 Twins 91-71 Indians 89-73 Tigers 85-77 White Sox 72-90 Royals 67-95 Angels 87-75 Athletics 81-81 Rangers 80-82 Mariners 73-89 All the projected records are usually updated a few times throughout the spring with new playing time forecasts.
  25. JGalt73
    Rest of the NL East Philadelphia 87-75 New York 85-77 Atlanta 81-81 Florida 79-83 Washington 66-96 West Arizona 88-74 San Diego 86-76 Los Angeles 80-82 Colorado 80-82 San Francisco 78-84
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