Rob

I'm disappointed about losing Flaherty to a team that should be able to keep him. I couldn't care much less about Marwin Gonzalez. I am very excited about keeping Rhee. New guy? Meh. We'll see what he looks like in ST.

Do you really?

If by immediately you mean 2-4 years, then yes Pick up Morales Sign Darvish Keep Garza Trade for Headley Deal Z (and others/cash) for Morrison Sell Soriano for prospects Trade Byrd for prospects Use prospects to trade for Upton You can have contingencies that involve people like Smoak or Sanchez or any number of people if you want. Just because they're not as simple to see, doesn't mean that trades are not going to happen. What exactly do you envision as a realistic Z (and cash/others) for Morrison trade? I'm curious.

imb! will be really hurt by this I thought he was a copy editor. i have moved my way up to the crime beat son I could never do that job. I'd try to talk my friends into doing really stupid stuff just so I'd have something hilarious to write about.

I feel like you're stuck in the old Jim Hendry mindset... where we've got x amount of money and we must spend every single penny of it. Theo and Hoyer are good at what they do in large part because they realize when it's a good idea not to spend that money. If the contracts Pujols and Fielder are getting would hamper the Cubs more than they're worth, I imagine we're exploring other options to fill that hole.

Last I remember, the CBA wouldn't allow for arbitration awards to cut salaries by more than 20%. I don't know if that's still in effect or not, but K-Rod got paid 11.5 mil last season. So they'd be looking at paying at least 9.2 mil if K-Rod can't argue that even higher. Let's hope the old CBA is still in effect a while longer.

Because I look at Ike Davis and see a marginally better James Loney or Casey Kotchman? I'm not saying that isn't valuable... but I just don't buy into Davis ever having the power production necessary to be a difference maker. With the stakes that low, I don't mind giving up a couple years of service time to go after I guy I see as having a real bat.

If we're going for injury reclamation projects, I'm trying to acquire Kendrys Morales.

No worries, I made the same assumption until the weird numbers on the y axis caught my eye.

That's the way I read it. Don't you see a flaw in the fact that the fat players have a lower baseline to start from? If there was no information on the weights of players it'd make sense to say worse players decline quicker and at an earlier age than better players. I think you're reading the graph wrong. The only baseline is the individuals own performance. The top of the graph is 0, or the player's peak season. Each data point below that is simply how far off from their peak they were. It only establishes the aging curve. There's no direct comparison as to which group is having the overall better seasons though.

It really varies too much between different types of players to be useful to generalize, but player peaks are much younger than most people realize. 27-32 is far too old. This.

Good or bad doesn't matter all that much when the only thing you're being compared against is your own production. You have a valid point about whether a heavy player is in shape or not could affect the results, but that only undercuts the argument that Fielder isn't likely to age poorly... unless your contention is that all the heavy guys who are actually in shape are the ones who drag down the overall aging curve for the unabashed fatties like Fielder. And that one doesn't pass the sniff test. If anything it would make sense to expect Fielder to age worse than even the standard heavy player, given he over-qualifies for that designation by a good 40 pounds. I'm not saying anything is written in stone. But make no mistake about it... Fielder carries more risk than most are willing to admit. It needs to be a serious consideration before offering him that 6th or 7th year.

The author's conclusion was that he proved it was "clear that [Fielder's] best days are behind him" (emphasis supplied). Not that his analysis showed that, historically, players shaped similar to Fielder generally aged poorly; but that comparisions to other players proved, clearly, that Fielder's immediate decline was already written. Such hubris, such complete misunderstanding of what proof entails, should alone call into question the entirety of his analysis. Of course, the writer who wrote the bulk of the article was not the same as the one who did the research on how heavier players age. True, he did not do the research for the chart; he did the graphs and all the writing you quoted. Regardless, the link between the charted players and Fielder seems so thinly related to warrant little persuasive merit. I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say... because it sounds like you're saying Prince Fielder isn't heavy.

I'd guess either offseason between 2013-14 or by the deadline in 14. I think it will be a very challenging trade market for a 30-something middle infielder with that much guaranteed money left and likely even more injuries on his resume. They'll have to eat money to move him, but I'm sure they'd rather eat money late in a contract than pony it up at the beginning. Time value of money and all...

Bedard to the Pirates.

I actually pronounce it as "a player to be named later". Not anymore you don't.

Oh, and didn't see this anywhere else: Huston Street to Padres for PTBNL. As an aside, everybody pronounces PTBNL as "put-bunnell" in their heads, right?

Levine says we're still in discussions for Stewart as well as Headley.

I love Kuroda. He probably wont require more than a 1-2 year deal and we should be able to net a decent haul of prospects if we decide to trade him at some point. He's a great example of a worthwhile short term signing.

and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke. prior to last year, DeJesus averaged +10 the previous six seasons per TZ yeah, there's a weird, odd, gaping disparity between UZR and TZ for Fukudome, but DeJesus should legitimately be regarded as a very strong fielder i'm not saying dejesus isn't a strong fielder, just that the only reason he looks like a big upgrade in war is because uzr thinks fukudome is cliff floyd Watching Fukudome from his first year in Chicago to his last, I'm not entirely sure UZR is that far off. There was a pretty big decline defensively.

The author's conclusion was that he proved it was "clear that [Fielder's] best days are behind him" (emphasis supplied). Not that his analysis showed that, historically, players shaped similar to Fielder generally aged poorly; but that comparisions to other players proved, clearly, that Fielder's immediate decline was already written. Such hubris, such complete misunderstanding of what proof entails, should alone call into question the entirety of his analysis. Of course, the writer who wrote the bulk of the article was not the same as the one who did the research on how heavier players age.

That's the way I read it.

I can do ya one better. There was an article on fangraphs a month or so back that had a nice little graph. I'll just copy and paste the relevant stuff. The rest of the article actually talks about Prince specifically and how much value the author expects him to have over his upcoming contract. It's definitely worth a read. At any rate... the premise that bad-bodied, one-dimensional sluggers age poorly has long been a sabermetric tenet and it would seem that premise still holds up. Is it a certainty? No. Nothing is. But if we're gonna bet against the odds, I'd much rather do it for 5 years than 7.

Good deal for the Giants.

I don't get why people keep talking about Prince, then looking at Mo Vaughn and thinking that's a terrible thing. During his age 30 season, Vaughn hit 40 homers with 117 RBIs and a .402 OPB. During his age 31 season, he hit 33 with 108 RBIs and a .358 OPB. During his age 32 season, he hit 36 homers with 117 RBIs and a .365 OPB. Then he got hurt. When he came back, during his age 34 season, he hit 26 homers with 72 RBIs and a .349 OBP. That last season is not great, of course, but that would be Fielder's seventh season of a seven-year contract. So, if Fielder produced like Vaughn did from his age 28 season to his age 34 season, why would that be bad again? Somewhere around ~2.0 WAR is average for a position player in a full season. He went from 6.6 WAR (slightly better than Fielder's peak) in his last year in Boston to totals of 1.9 and 2.0 the next two seasons, missed a year entirely, then came back out with a 0.8 season and a sub-replacement level -0.6 WAR before leaving baseball entirely. He was never an above average regular after signing his big contract. I've said it before and I'll say it again... players with the body type and skill set that Prince Fielder has peak very early and do not age well. There is no gradual decline. It's a nosedive off a cliff. Now I'm not saying I don't like Prince Fielder at all. But he's the kind of piece you add to put yourself over the top in the next few years... not the type to build around for the long term. Give him 5 years and I'm happy. Give him 6 years and show me a blueprint that has us competing sooner rather than later and I can probably live with it. If we have to pony up that 7th year, I'd rather we be shopping in the bargain bin.