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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    What "big market" moves have been made so far? CJ Wilson gave the Angels a huge discount, so we didn't really have a chance. Pujols, Reyes, and Buehrle will all have to stay perfectly healthy and perform on the very optimistic ends of their projections to have a chance of justifying their contracts -- in other words, they received bad contracts. Are we really mad that the Cubs didn't outbid 3 bad contracts? There are still plenty of places to spend money this offseason that represent real upgrades. Fielder and Darvish are obvious. Cespedes may be worth the gamble. Soler is certainly very interesting. Kuroda is the perfect short term investment. Edwin Jackson is nearly as good as Buehrle and should cost a good deal less. There's also quite a few interesting names who may or may not be available on the trade market: King Felix, BJ Upton, Cole Hamels, John Danks, etc... It's December 9th. We're barely into the offseason at all. People need to calm down.
  2. Rob
    I know we're all busy fighting with Kyle right now, but I thought it might be okay if I gave the short version of my opinion? I don't like Ian Stewart... but this was a good move.
  3. Rob
    The Marlins will probably get him. Their fans are so lucky.
  4. Rob
    Pretty sure you are.
  5. Rob
    I don't know. The very idea is a little irrational because it's based on the Marlins hating Morrison and liking(or at least Ozzie talking up) Z. Brett mentioned it in one of his roundups, so it's a touch more than random speculation at this point at least. Yeah... I'm very intrigued by the idea, but for the life of me I can't get my head wrapped around it.
  6. Rob
    I'm disappointed about losing Flaherty to a team that should be able to keep him. I couldn't care much less about Marwin Gonzalez. I am very excited about keeping Rhee. New guy? Meh. We'll see what he looks like in ST.
  7. Rob
    Do you really?
  8. Rob
    If by immediately you mean 2-4 years, then yes Pick up Morales Sign Darvish Keep Garza Trade for Headley Deal Z (and others/cash) for Morrison Sell Soriano for prospects Trade Byrd for prospects Use prospects to trade for Upton You can have contingencies that involve people like Smoak or Sanchez or any number of people if you want. Just because they're not as simple to see, doesn't mean that trades are not going to happen. What exactly do you envision as a realistic Z (and cash/others) for Morrison trade? I'm curious.
  9. Rob
    imb! will be really hurt by this I thought he was a copy editor. i have moved my way up to the crime beat son I could never do that job. I'd try to talk my friends into doing really stupid stuff just so I'd have something hilarious to write about.
  10. Rob
    I feel like you're stuck in the old Jim Hendry mindset... where we've got x amount of money and we must spend every single penny of it. Theo and Hoyer are good at what they do in large part because they realize when it's a good idea not to spend that money. If the contracts Pujols and Fielder are getting would hamper the Cubs more than they're worth, I imagine we're exploring other options to fill that hole.
  11. Rob
    Last I remember, the CBA wouldn't allow for arbitration awards to cut salaries by more than 20%. I don't know if that's still in effect or not, but K-Rod got paid 11.5 mil last season. So they'd be looking at paying at least 9.2 mil if K-Rod can't argue that even higher. Let's hope the old CBA is still in effect a while longer.
  12. Rob
    Because I look at Ike Davis and see a marginally better James Loney or Casey Kotchman? I'm not saying that isn't valuable... but I just don't buy into Davis ever having the power production necessary to be a difference maker. With the stakes that low, I don't mind giving up a couple years of service time to go after I guy I see as having a real bat.
  13. Rob
    If we're going for injury reclamation projects, I'm trying to acquire Kendrys Morales.
  14. Rob
    No worries, I made the same assumption until the weird numbers on the y axis caught my eye.
  15. Rob
    That's the way I read it. Don't you see a flaw in the fact that the fat players have a lower baseline to start from? If there was no information on the weights of players it'd make sense to say worse players decline quicker and at an earlier age than better players. I think you're reading the graph wrong. The only baseline is the individuals own performance. The top of the graph is 0, or the player's peak season. Each data point below that is simply how far off from their peak they were. It only establishes the aging curve. There's no direct comparison as to which group is having the overall better seasons though.
  16. Rob
    It really varies too much between different types of players to be useful to generalize, but player peaks are much younger than most people realize. 27-32 is far too old. This.
  17. Rob
    Good or bad doesn't matter all that much when the only thing you're being compared against is your own production. You have a valid point about whether a heavy player is in shape or not could affect the results, but that only undercuts the argument that Fielder isn't likely to age poorly... unless your contention is that all the heavy guys who are actually in shape are the ones who drag down the overall aging curve for the unabashed fatties like Fielder. And that one doesn't pass the sniff test. If anything it would make sense to expect Fielder to age worse than even the standard heavy player, given he over-qualifies for that designation by a good 40 pounds. I'm not saying anything is written in stone. But make no mistake about it... Fielder carries more risk than most are willing to admit. It needs to be a serious consideration before offering him that 6th or 7th year.
  18. Rob
    The author's conclusion was that he proved it was "clear that [Fielder's] best days are behind him" (emphasis supplied). Not that his analysis showed that, historically, players shaped similar to Fielder generally aged poorly; but that comparisions to other players proved, clearly, that Fielder's immediate decline was already written. Such hubris, such complete misunderstanding of what proof entails, should alone call into question the entirety of his analysis. Of course, the writer who wrote the bulk of the article was not the same as the one who did the research on how heavier players age. True, he did not do the research for the chart; he did the graphs and all the writing you quoted. Regardless, the link between the charted players and Fielder seems so thinly related to warrant little persuasive merit. I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say... because it sounds like you're saying Prince Fielder isn't heavy.
  19. Rob
    I'd guess either offseason between 2013-14 or by the deadline in 14. I think it will be a very challenging trade market for a 30-something middle infielder with that much guaranteed money left and likely even more injuries on his resume. They'll have to eat money to move him, but I'm sure they'd rather eat money late in a contract than pony it up at the beginning. Time value of money and all...
  20. Rob
    Bedard to the Pirates.
  21. Rob
    I actually pronounce it as "a player to be named later". Not anymore you don't.
  22. Rob
    Oh, and didn't see this anywhere else: Huston Street to Padres for PTBNL. As an aside, everybody pronounces PTBNL as "put-bunnell" in their heads, right?
  23. Rob
    Levine says we're still in discussions for Stewart as well as Headley.
  24. Rob
    I love Kuroda. He probably wont require more than a 1-2 year deal and we should be able to net a decent haul of prospects if we decide to trade him at some point. He's a great example of a worthwhile short term signing.
  25. Rob
    and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke. prior to last year, DeJesus averaged +10 the previous six seasons per TZ yeah, there's a weird, odd, gaping disparity between UZR and TZ for Fukudome, but DeJesus should legitimately be regarded as a very strong fielder i'm not saying dejesus isn't a strong fielder, just that the only reason he looks like a big upgrade in war is because uzr thinks fukudome is cliff floyd Watching Fukudome from his first year in Chicago to his last, I'm not entirely sure UZR is that far off. There was a pretty big decline defensively.
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