Rob

For anybody who hasn't been to see a Chiefs game, I'd highly recommend it. I didn't make it out there til last season, but I'm planning on going back a bunch next year.

Just because I think it's an interesting comparison. Travis Wood has 3.3 WAR over 208.2 IP in his career, with a 3.75 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP (not shocking for a flyball pitcher in GABP). He's under control for 5 more years. Gio Gonzalez over the last two years has averaged 3.35 WAR in 201.1 IP, with an FIP of 3.71 and xFIP of 3.89. He's under control for 4 more years. The Nationals just gave up a huge haul of prospects to get their guy. The Cubs gave up one year of an elite setup guy, but will also be receiving two additional prospects.

The prospects may make or break the trade from the Reds perspective. The Cubs already came out ahead.

Much more promising than some of the other prospects listed. Works in the low 90's and tops out at 97mph. Seems to have started to figure things out. The other two Coddington and Ward make absolutely no sense. The other name he gave me was Yorman Rodriguez Corcino and Rodriguez. Yes please. You're kidding right? I think you guys need to come way down off your prospects expectations. I wouldn't trade Wood for Marshall straight up as it is, so if it's anything but low level filler guys I'll be surprised. Coddington/Webb makes much more sense. Keith Law says the names he's heard have been non-zeroes. Jim Bowden said the prospects will be the key to the deal. Yadda yadda yadda. We don't know what they had to give up. But given how many teams were supposedly in on Marshall I'm sure the Reds had to outbid others, as well as perhaps pay the standard premium for trading with a division rival. It's not about what's fair or what makes sense. That said, Wood is a pretty significant piece already. I'm not expecting much in addition to him... but at the same time I absolutely would not be shocked to see some more interesting names than you're anticipating.

Me too. In somewhat related news, I just won a twitter argument with Keith Law on the minutia of transaction rules and regulations regarding a potential Danks sign and trade.

Doesn't seem like there's much basis to that rumor. Doesn't mean it wont turn out to be true, but there's no source for it. It's just an unattributed rumor that everybody seems to be running with.

I move for a 48 hour unban.

His changeup is currently a 2, but has the potential to be an 8. That seems likely. Good to know.

There are other ways, but avoiding free agency is stupid. I absolutely agree? As I said, I was just nitpicking. I wasn't throwing out proclamations of how we should be doing things going forward.

If you draft and develop they probably won't be doing much for another 5 years. I was kinda including the guys already in our system (including that high ceiling last draft), but that's irrelevant. The point was just that there were other ways to acquire impact talent than buy it. I was being kinda nitpicky.

wow. the cubs are really hoping there are a lot of ticket buyers with this attitude. unreal. Do you disagree? I just don't see the Cubs having much chance of competing before 2016 unless they buy some impact players in free agency prior to that time. That's dumb. We can draft and develop impact players before that point, hopefully... to say nothing of being able to at least trade for them. Also, the entirety of the NL central looks like it's about to fall apart completely. You really don't think we can sneak in there?

Jeff Francis is that girl you want to get out of the bar before they turn the lights on. You needed somebody and it's understandable... but you get rid of her at the first available opportunity and feel really bad about yourself afterwards. I really hope the Travis Wood acquisition takes care of the need to acquire a #5 starter and we can set our sights a little higher.

Is that WAR likely to remain that decent if his K/9 stays that low and his BB/9 stays that high? I guess what I'm asking is whether there was luck involved in that 1.1 WAR he posted last year and is he a good bet to keep that WAR despite such mediocre numbers? It's fWAR, not bWAR. It's all based on fielding independent pitching... so there's no real luck involved. Maybe HR/FB, but that stayed basically the same from 2010 to 2011.

What if 2011 is closer to what Wood will do going forward rather than 2010? He had two very similar sample sizes and his K/9 dropped a full strikeout while his BB/9 rose more than 1 full walk. It's all well and good that the two combined average out to a solid pitcher, but what if 2010 was a fluke? 2011 Wood was worth 1.1 WAR in 106 IP. Give even 2011 Wood a full season in the rotation and he's pretty likely to approach that 2.0 WAR figure.

Teams are getting super-stingy with their prospects. We might have been able to get some higher-ceiling low level guys, but personally I love guys who are ready to contribute with 0 or 1 years of service time. Those are highly valuable assets. They may be valuable but there's a good chance they aren't highly valuable. Ready to contribute guys can just be people like Colvin who aren't going to get any better. If you emphasize just getting guys who are ready that's a good way to lock-in very mediocre seasons. A league average 2 WAR player making 400k a year just saved 9 million dollars over what comparable production would cost on the FA market. Young, cost-controlled guys are super valuable for the financial flexibility they offer your team. The trick though is actually finding a place to spend that 9 mil. ETA: Kyle took care of it. Nevermind.

It's not that Wood is a horrible return. It's that Marshall is one of the most dominant relievers in the game and we find it hard to believe that the Cubs weren't able to get a better offer for him. Oh, so you know the two minor leaguers? And what other teams were offering? Wood for Marshall straight up is a win for us, which is cause for at least some celebration. Debating whether Theo took the best offer he could get or not is a waste of time right now.

5 cost controlled years of a 24 year old left handed starter who has 3.3 WAR in 208.2 IP. The recently acquired Mat Latos had 3.2 WAR in 194.1 IP last season, just as a reference. If you think Wood's true talent level is somewhere right in the middle of his last two years, and that he can throw 200 IP in a season, he's a hell of a piece to get.

How is this "breaking news"? Theo has been dumpster diving for the last few weeks and has offered to trade anyone that anyone will take (except Castro). As for Fielder, any of you posters who think we've been serious bidders have been smoking something. Backtobanks criticizing other posters for having what he feels are unrealistic expectations of who will end up on our roster... Hmmm...

Are we even certain Reed got a major league deal?

Yeah, I read that article... In short, his sources are employees of other teams who think we should be starting a complete rebuild. There's nobody in the Cubs org telling him we will.

The Cubs have upgraded RF by about as much as they've downgraded at 3B. Given the monumentally bad luck of our pitching staff last season, it's reasonable to expect some improvements there. Our CF most likely is not going to get his face exploded by a fastball. There's also reason to hope for rebounds at C and LF, though those are less than certainties. And we can always hope for continued development from Castro and perhaps Barney. Right now, I expect the 2012 Cubs to be better than 2011. Perhaps not from a sheer talent standpoint, but that wasn't really a 71 win team last year to begin with. I could see us approaching .500 depending on what we do to close out the offseason. I could also see us heading the other direction if we firesale this beeyotch. There's still plenty of options out there to go either way with it. Isn't a part of this also due to the fact that we were awful defensively? The BABIP stuff applies mostly to Garza and Demp (and Casey Coleman, weirdly enough), but let's just forget all about that for a second. - We got one start from Cashner. - We got one start from Wells before he hit the DL. After he returned too early he went from being a ~0.8 HR/9 guy in his first 350 innings (good) to nearly double that at 1.53 HR/9 for the next 130 (abysmal). If he's healthy, there's plenty of reason to think that number will go way back down. - Z spent another season being jerked between the rotation and the bullpen because our GM and manager wanted a scapegoat. I have a hard time believing we're going to get so little from our 3/4/5 starters next season.

The Cubs have upgraded RF by about as much as they've downgraded at 3B. Given the monumentally bad luck of our pitching staff last season, it's reasonable to expect some improvements there. Our CF most likely is not going to get his face exploded by a fastball. There's also reason to hope for rebounds at C and LF, though those are less than certainties. And we can always hope for continued development from Castro and perhaps Barney. Right now, I expect the 2012 Cubs to be better than 2011. Perhaps not from a sheer talent standpoint, but that wasn't really a 71 win team last year to begin with. I could see us approaching .500 depending on what we do to close out the offseason. I could also see us heading the other direction if we firesale this beeyotch. There's still plenty of options out there to go either way with it.

What is it that makes you think Johnson will be a better player in 2012 than Campana? Ideally, I'd like for our bench to be full of specialists so that we can fully maximize their value. Campana could be around as the pinch runner/defender but we do need guys around who can pinch hit too. That said, I'd have preferred it if we'd have just protected Ryan Flaherty and used him on the bench. He'd have added a power hitting lefty and his defensive versatility would have allowed us to use Jeff Baker as an OF who can mash lefties. But we couldn't protect Flaherty because we needed to hold those spots for guys we were going to bring in the offseason. "Those guys" were not supposed to include Reed [expletive] Johnson Hence my growing frustration. The move only gets worse the more I think about it.

What is it that makes you think Johnson will be a better player in 2012 than Campana? Ideally, I'd like for our bench to be full of specialists so that we can fully maximize their value. Campana could be around as the pinch runner/defender but we do need guys around who can pinch hit too. That said, I'd have preferred it if we'd have just protected Ryan Flaherty and used him on the bench. He'd have added a power hitting lefty and his defensive versatility would have allowed us to use Jeff Baker as an OF who can mash lefties.

Johnson's defense doesn't make him all that appealing a platoon player, especially if he's having to man a corner spot. I honestly hadn't looked up his numbers before I posted anything. I had just assumed "guy who can only kinda play CF is probably still pretty good in the corners." Nevermind. Carry on fellas.