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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Sending someone like Baker would make sense. Barney would actually make a ton of sense for the Tigers. They could move Barney back to SS, shift Peralta over to 3B, and kick Inge to the curb. Of course... he's young, cheap, and moderately productive. That makes it unlikely the Cubs deal him unless DD is willing to pay for it. Baker and Byrd are both useful pieces that aren't perfect fits for the Tigers but could be of some use. I'd hope we get some degree of consideration for either. DeWitt is a pretty blah piece that is a safe throw-in DD shouldn't have to pay anything for. But he is a lefty and the Tigers do have Raburn and Inge who mash on lefties... so if you discount his funky reverse platoon splits he might be somewhat attractive to the Tigers.
  2. Rob
    Glad to hear it. He certainly deserves it.
  3. Rob
    Lots of information in today's Ask BA:
  4. Rob
    What if he signs a 3 year contract and is flipped midseason? Could it happen? Sure. If the offers are good enough, I expect Theo would deal just about anybody. But signing somebody to a 3 year contract when you have no intent of keeping them around more than 3 months is extremely risky. You'd be betting against injury and ineffectiveness while hoping the teams in the race are guys with holes in their rotations and more attractive starters aren't made available. Not to mention the fact that in order for such a gamble to make sense, you have to acquire something of more value than the time you've paid for... So if you assume he's getting $6 mil per season (probably low but it makes the math easy) and you trade him at the deadline, you'd need to have acquired pieces worth approximately $4 mil just to break even. Anything less and you'd be better off having spent the money in IFA.
  5. Rob
    Maholm is much more likely to be a David DeJesus type signing... 2-3 year contract in the hopes he can help us compete in 2013 and 2014. I really don't see him signing a one year contract and being flipped midseason.
  6. Rob
    Wood is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher. Volstad and Maholm are extreme groundball guys. I'd be pretty interested in hearing how the batted ball profile affects their decision-making process. It could be something entirely off the wall like "well, we weren't so worried about Wood being an extreme flyball guy because the park factor for HR is only particularly high for lefties, which he should perform well against." This is sort of what I was attempting to allude to in that post. Only I'm not smart enough to put it that way. I definitely got what you were saying in my first read of that post. Of course that only angered me, as I had just finished retyping my post about 12 different times for the sake of clarity before finally hitting submit... only to see your post on the exact same topic had appeared in that time.
  7. Rob
    Park Factor of 119 for LH HR. This whole article might be worth reading for ya, if you're interested. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/kicking-big-rocks-extreme-park-factors-and-batted-ball-data/
  8. Rob
    Wood is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher. Volstad and Maholm are extreme groundball guys. I'd be pretty interested in hearing how the batted ball profile affects their decision-making process. It could be something entirely off the wall like "well, we weren't so worried about Wood being an extreme flyball guy because the park factor for HR is only particularly high for lefties, which he should perform well against."
  9. Rob
    Hmmm... Garza/Dempster/Maholm/Wood/Volstad/Wells I wonder who the odd man out is? This whole thing could be a sign of a move to come or it could just be that the plan is to send a guy down to AAA. Anybody know the option status for Wood, Volstad, and Wells?
  10. Rob
    This.
  11. Rob
    Yeah, I'm absolutely a Big HOF guy.
  12. Rob
    I think Sappelt is probably a fourth OF. But given the fact we're going nowhere this season I would absolutely love to give him as many PA as possible so he can prove me wrong.
  13. Rob
    I think between Wood/Volstad/Wells we're likely to have one guy perform like a #3, one guy like a #4, and one guy like a #5. I'm not going to try to predict which is which.
  14. Rob
    From the moment Theo and Jed came on board they have preached about how poor defensively the Cubs have been and how they wanted to change that. And Hawpe actually makes Soriano look like a fantastic LF by comparison. There is absolutely zero chance that the front office would ever seriously consider Hawpe for an outfield role. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada. You can keep talking about how they might, but it is in no way realistic even in the slightest. 1B, maybe. I can see a confluence of circumstances that might, however unlikely, allow Hawpe to be the stopgap until Rizzo is ready. But the idea that we might ever acquire Hawpe to play the OF is about as likely as luring Barry Bonds out of retirement. And that's not hyperbole.
  15. Rob
    this cannot possibly be true, unless you're considering their prime to be like 8 years long. I wish I could remember who posted it. But I thought hitters primes were shown to be closer to 23-27. No one else remembers this within the last month or 2? That was me. It was in the middle of (yet another) debate on how Fielder's size might impact his decline. I can do ya one better. There was an article on fangraphs a month or so back that had a nice little graph. I'll just copy and paste the relevant stuff. The rest of the article actually talks about Prince specifically and how much value the author expects him to have over his upcoming contract. It's definitely worth a read. At any rate... the premise that bad-bodied, one-dimensional sluggers age poorly has long been a sabermetric tenet and it would seem that premise still holds up. Is it a certainty? No. Nothing is. But if we're gonna bet against the odds, I'd much rather do it for 5 years than 7.
  16. Rob
    :shock: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
  17. Rob
    The NSBB community list? yup ... unless there's another list I'm forgetting about? Heck, even read Jaypers list this year. I was going over my personal list earlier and I was shocked at how many guys in this system I find interesting. I think there's gonna be a lot of varying opinions on who belongs where in the NSBB list.
  18. Rob
    Ortiz turned 27 during the offseason in which Theo acquired him. Hawpe is currently 32 years old. And again, Hawpe can in no way play the OF. He was only ever tossed out there in the first place because Helton was blocking him at 1B. In case you've forgotten how bad he is out there, his career UZR/150 mark (in more than 6000 innings) is a staggering -19.0. He cost his team nearly two full wins per season just on defense. And that's not just a UZR thing. Total Zone abhors him as well and DRS only thinks he's moderately less awful.
  19. Rob
    The NSBB community list?
  20. Rob
    Called Vitters with the C+. Booyah. I'm debating picking up the Sickels book this year. I gave him a shot about 5 years ago and was unimpressed but everybody deserves a second chance, right?
  21. Rob
    The #1 thing every talent evaluator will tell you they look at is age relative to league.
  22. Rob
    Different scenario but that low risk that pays huge dividends. Doubtful that he'd be quite the monster that Ortiz was but if he could go back to what he was from '06-'09 that would be pretty huge. Without looking, how old do you think Brad Hawpe is? Also, how old do you think David Ortiz was when Epstein pulled him off the scrap heap?
  23. Rob
    I can't imagine it's a possibility Jed and Theo would consider. What would we do with him? It makes a little sense to bring him into spring training. The Rizzo/LaHair competition at 1B could use a little push from a veteran bat. Of course, I sincerely doubt Theo and Jed would give him a spot on the Opening Day roster regardless of his performance. So he probably wont sign with us unless his agent is a total nincompoop or he really can't get an invite anywhere else. If the plan is for Jackson to start the season in AAA, then he could platoon with Soriano or if Soriano is traded he could have left with Reed and Campana as the 4th and 5th. If he could get back to form he'd be our 3 or 4 hitter. The theme of pretty much every acquisition we've made so far had been either if he can regain his old form or if he can finally become what he was once projected to. Hawpe is every bit as much a major league outfielder as Sean Marshall. Just cause a goofy manager puts you out there doesn't mean you belong.
  24. Rob
    I can't imagine it's a possibility Jed and Theo would consider. What would we do with him? It makes a little sense to bring him into spring training. The Rizzo/LaHair competition at 1B could use a little push from a veteran bat. Of course, I sincerely doubt Theo and Jed would give him a spot on the Opening Day roster regardless of his performance. So he probably wont sign with us unless his agent is a total nincompoop or he really can't get an invite anywhere else.
  25. Rob
    It's kinda been assumed that if we trade Garza we were going to receive a ML-ready starter to plug into the rotation. If we aren't (or we are planning on trading Dempster also), we will need to fill out a rotation spot. That said, while I like Maholm, I like Chris Rusin nearly as much... and he's gonna cost the league minimum.
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