Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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I'd support a policy of crouching real low and leaning way out over the plate.
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At a glance, that trend is gonna have some trouble continuing. 97 Marlins: Sheffield is probably the best bet, but may not get in until a Veterans Committee forgets what a prick he was. Kevin Brown may get some consideration 20 years from now too. Renteria has a shot if he can reverse the trend and grab a few hundred more hits. 02 Angels: Could also be a problem. K-Rod has 297 saves and turns just 30 in January. Probably their best bet. Otherwise a committee has to get a little crazy and vote David Eckstein, Troy Glaus or Tim Salmon in. Lackey is halfway to a Jack Morris career, but the 2nd half of that is the hardest. After that you're in the clear til 08 and 09, but then you're stuck predicting what guys like Hamels and Lincecum are gonna do.
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I keep seeing this guy referenced... what is PSD? ProSportsDaily Cubs forum a poster there named Marlin has called various Cubs moves in the past. He rarely shows up, but when he does whatever he posts seems to be legit info. ProSportsDaily! Thanks. That's been driving me nuts for weeks. How did you break your google? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKEw7JNVcnw -
Obviously the title should have been "Cubs cheaply sign two Cubans with moderate upside (not Cespedes or Soler)" What the hell was WSR thinking?
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I was just coming in here to post that, jerk.
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This. Soto makes a lot of sense to shop around, but you never want to sell low. Coming off a down year and with only one real suitor isn't the best situation for making a good deal. Hold him, hope he rebounds and you can sell him after a couple other teams have some injuries.
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Re: What would you deal Garza for?
Rob replied to toonsterwu's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
If it doesn't get done, that's one more bidder for Garza... so a team who isn't so certain of the outcome might be willing to pay a tad more to get it done before the Rangers get a chance to bid up the price. But pretty much everybody expects the Rangers will get that deal done. I don't anticipate it'll create much pressure on teams bidding for Garza. -
Re: What would you deal Garza for?
Rob replied to toonsterwu's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Would it be unreasonable to expect Beliveau to make the jump this season? EDIT: Also you've got reclamation projects like Corpas and Sonnanstine Sonnanstine isn't a reclamation project. He's strictly an injury replacement guy we're stashing at AAA to avoid needing to sign Ramon Ortiz again. -
drink endlessly is not a drinking game, dingus Dingus? I love it. Carry on good sir.
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Especially since I was just trying to say that replacing Kerry Wood's production with someone else is probably easier than most people think and cheaper than bringing him back at what he wants. Clearly Davis' fWAR is an outlier (sample sizes and all that). Davis is an baseball abomination. Truth. It's not hard to replace the production of a non-elite reliever. That said, I love Kerry Wood. I would gladly pay too much money to bring him back.
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HR/FB is prone to significant swings, especially in small sample sizes. It's why xFIP is more predicative than FIP. Davis was lucky and that luck got double-counted towards his FIP. Please just let it go.
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For the record, I don't believe that using FIP is an inherent flaw with fWAR. They made a choice to use a statistic that is more predicative. That gives fWAR significantly more value than bWAR in debating how to assemble a roster, trying to break down whether a contract is good, etc... If you're looking for a more accurate representation of what actually happened, there's always bWAR. As to Davis himself, his 2011 FIP is obviously not representative (hardly shocking considering it was just 9 starts). His HR/FB which had floated around 11% for his career was at 3.6%. It seems pretty obvious that Davis got lucky on a few hard hit flyballs that hit off the wall instead of going over. FIP saw his H/9 was too high and erased some of those doubles assuming it was the fault of the defense instead of Davis himself. These things happen in 45 IP sample sizes. Can we move on from this boring argument?
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My thoughts on the signing I still can't believe how bad the Pirates infield defense was in 2010. Jeebus.
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For the record, I'd also like to state that I was WAY off on what I expected the contract to be. I was thinking something like 3/20. At this price he's definitely flippable if healthy.
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The whole "backloading of contracts" thing is a hell of a lot less about budgeting and more about making things as cheap as possible. Let's look at a hypothetical 2 year contract worth $20 million dollars. Let's also assume you can get a 2% annual rate of return by investing that money into stocks/bonds/mcdonalds property across the street. Scenario A: Frontloaded contract that pays $15 mil the first year and $5 mil the second year - You make $100,000. Scenario B: Evenly split contract that pays $10 mil each year - You make $200,000. Scenario C: Backloaded contract that pays $5 mil the first year and $15 mil the next. - You make $300,000 As long as you believe you can make any money at all investing, backloading a contract will help out your bottom line.
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I was just working on writing an article for the front page and decided on a whim to check out the Pirates infield defense metrics the last few years. In the least shocking development of all time, when he was pitching in front of a crappy infield Maholm's ERA went up. I'll post the article tomorrow. Gotta figure out a couple stupid formatting things but it's too late for that now. Suffice to say I like the move, pending absurd contract details.
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There's a pretty decent chance that the Garza deal will send back a young SP who could slot into the rotation (though it wouldn't shock me to see us start a Turner or Drabek or Banuelos at AAA). There's also a pretty decent chance that Dempster is traded before opening day. I would be absolutely shocked if Sonnanstine is thought of as anything more than an emergency fill-in option we hide at AAA until June.
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Re: What would you deal Garza for?
Rob replied to toonsterwu's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I read on PSD that Dombrowski likes both DeWitt and Samardzija and feels they both fit. I'd be disappointed to give up Samardzija after he seems to finally be putting it together, but I'm sure the package would probably be worth it. -
Isn't Russell cheap for a few more years though? Never let a middle reliever get in the way.
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14 was a bit of a surprise for me as well. I figured us in the 18-22 range but was preparing myself to see 25 or so. Also kinda surprised to see Baez at #31. I mean, I knew he was between #28 and #42, but I definitely figured on the back end of that. He didn't get a chance to do much of anything during the season... I imagine his placement next year will be more telling.
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Sending someone like Baker would make sense. Barney would actually make a ton of sense for the Tigers. They could move Barney back to SS, shift Peralta over to 3B, and kick Inge to the curb. Of course... he's young, cheap, and moderately productive. That makes it unlikely the Cubs deal him unless DD is willing to pay for it. Baker and Byrd are both useful pieces that aren't perfect fits for the Tigers but could be of some use. I'd hope we get some degree of consideration for either. DeWitt is a pretty blah piece that is a safe throw-in DD shouldn't have to pay anything for. But he is a lefty and the Tigers do have Raburn and Inge who mash on lefties... so if you discount his funky reverse platoon splits he might be somewhat attractive to the Tigers.
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Glad to hear it. He certainly deserves it.
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Lots of information in today's Ask BA:
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What if he signs a 3 year contract and is flipped midseason? Could it happen? Sure. If the offers are good enough, I expect Theo would deal just about anybody. But signing somebody to a 3 year contract when you have no intent of keeping them around more than 3 months is extremely risky. You'd be betting against injury and ineffectiveness while hoping the teams in the race are guys with holes in their rotations and more attractive starters aren't made available. Not to mention the fact that in order for such a gamble to make sense, you have to acquire something of more value than the time you've paid for... So if you assume he's getting $6 mil per season (probably low but it makes the math easy) and you trade him at the deadline, you'd need to have acquired pieces worth approximately $4 mil just to break even. Anything less and you'd be better off having spent the money in IFA.
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Maholm is much more likely to be a David DeJesus type signing... 2-3 year contract in the hopes he can help us compete in 2013 and 2014. I really don't see him signing a one year contract and being flipped midseason.
