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Rob

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  1. Rob
    You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games. i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization. You make a valid point. We should be looking at both. (though I tend to trust xFIP more in general, except when it comes to extreme fly ball or ground ball pitchers)
  2. Rob
    I dont think hes keeping the Cubs from signing the Cubans, but his money is still added into the payroll. Its not a major issue but just 1 I dont see the need in spending 4.25 mil on a guy over 30 who brings zero long term value. There's value in keeping at least a decent product on the field so as not to tank attendance and damage revenues. But this team can still compete in 2013 or 2014, and DeJesus can be a part of that.
  3. Rob
    Right. Signing Fielder right now would be a more prudent move than waiting for Votto (who may or may not even make it to FA). Banking on potential free agents not to be extended by their team or traded and extended while passing on current FAs is a flawed and dangerous strategy. Yup.
  4. Rob
    Did you at least touch base on him being run over by a steamroller, Naked gun style? No, but if you want to make a .gif of that I'll put it in there.
  5. Rob
    an actual vision for the future and not taking on more bad contracts. let's be realistic, the cubs' core was lousy and the only way the cubs were going to be any good in 2012 was to make at least a couple of expensive free agent signings or trade the few good prospects we have for good major league players on other teams. Doing literally nothing would also help us have a vision for the future and not take on more bad contracts. What do you mean? That would just run out contracts with absolutely nothing in return. Other than the Marshall trade what have we brought in? Four former pretty good prospects in Ian Stewart, Chris Volstad, Travis Wood, and Casey Weathers. Two actual prospects in Sappelt and Torreyes. One semi-prospect in Jeff Bianchi. And David DeJesus, who is just a good player at a very cheap price.
  6. Rob
    I put my thoughts up in a front page article, if anybody is interested. I thought about calling Kaplan a racist directly in the thing, but I thought Tim might get mad.
  7. Rob
    Three. Thought so, but I have no idea when Cots updates the service time numbers.
  8. Rob
    How many seasons does Volstad have left under club control? 2? 3?
  9. Rob
    Dominguez sounds like a guy Theo/Hoyer would target given their apparent extremely strong emphasis on defense and lukewarm stance on offense. Not sure Z's value is high enough to net him, but it wouldn't surprise me if Theo/Hoyer want him. The Red Sox routinely ranked as one of the top offensive teams in baseball under Epstein. We will have offense, even if it isn't next year.
  10. Rob
    Career high strikeout rate last year along with a career low walk rate. The improvement was masked by what looks like some moderately bad luck. There's a hint of potential there, but the best case scenario looks like a typical Ryan Dempster year. Given he's not even under club control for long, I think I'd have rather held on to Zambrano and prayed for a resurgence (culminating in a deadline deal).
  11. Rob
    I wouldn't be shocked to see Vitters a C+
  12. Rob
    Of the guys already in the system, I think those two are the only ones with a good case for the #1 ranking. But if we acquire a Jacob Turner or Jesus Montero in a Garza deal that could change in a hurry. Same for Rizzo, if he still qualifies as a prospect.
  13. Rob
    doesn't he face 100 games? MLB says he should face 100 games. Manny's camp (and likely the MLBPA) says his retirement last season should count towards those 100. Both sides are amenable to a 50 game suspension, though I don't know that anything has been officially declared.
  14. Rob
    That's a much better post than some irrelevant tangent about OPS+. Thank you.
  15. Rob
    So you fully admit that you're looking for different things from different positions, and yet you're judging a CF solely based upon his bat? Where did I say I was judging solely on his bat? I'm sorry, where did you acknowledge the importance of anything besides OPS+?
  16. Rob
    So you fully admit that you're looking for different things from different positions, and yet you're judging a CF solely based upon his bat?
  17. Rob
    because ops+ isn't the sum total of a baseball player's skills? Sure isn't the worst thing to have a high number in either. LETS FRAME THIS A DIFFERENT WAY!!! because UZR isn't the sum total of a baseball player's skills? Sure isn't the worst thing to have a high number in either. YOU JUST HELPED ME PROVE WE SHOULDN'T SIGN PRINCE FIELDER.
  18. Rob
    1/3 seems high. He's a good hitter relative to other starting pitchers but maybe he'd pitch better if he didn't have to run the bases. We have no way of knowing how much he thinks about hitting when he's supposed to be pitching. By which I mean that he may go to the mound pissed because he struck out and try to overthrow and start walking people. It seems like there have also been times when he lost his effectiveness on the mound after getting a hit in the previous half inning. No, I don't have any stats to back that up. 1/3 was low last year. Zambrano posted 1.0 WAR as a hitter and 0.9 as a pitcher.
  19. Rob
    If we spent $25 mil or so there's still enough out there on the market that we could be a .500 team and pray for some luck. But it's looking more and more like 2012 will be a rebuilding year, barring something unexpected. I imagine I'll see more games in Peoria than Chicago this year.
  20. Rob
    They won 81 games last year. Only Bautista and Romero are serious candidates for regression. They've replaced Aaron Hill and Rajai Davis with Kelly Johnson and Colby Rasmus (struggles aside, he's a good bet to outperform the Jays 2011 CF production). They will get a full season from Brett Lawrie. They've also got plenty of candidates to perform much better... Arencibia, Snider, Morrow, Cecil... and I'd love to see what Dustin McGowan could do if he's healthy going into next season. I understand waiting a year or two, but with the money the Blue Jays have available I see no reason they couldn't contend next year if they wanted to.
  21. Rob
    isn't rendon supposed to be a superior defender at 3b? if he can even play a decent 2b, his bat could be monstrous (like chase utley-type impact) relative to other 2b around the league. i can't see either him or zimmerman shifting to 1b; their defensive abilities would be wasted there. i guess the other possibility would be corner OF, but then you run into werth and harper. i think 2b makes the most sense... the greatest downside being that 2b get injured more frequently than any position on the diamond except for catchers. I'm not saying he doesn't have the athleticism to handle 2B. He does. But as you stated, 2B get injured very frequently... and Rendon already has plenty of scouts using the term "injury-prone." I think it's more likely he's traded than anything else.
  22. Rob
    I'm glad prices are reaching the point that teams feel uncomfortable.
  23. Rob
    Reading over at Sons of Sam Horn, I've seen more than one post suggesting that the Red Sox might take on Byrd and his salary in order to lower the cost of prospects they'd have to give up in a Garza trade. Is NSBB usually this delusional? Byrd has been worth 6.4 WAR over the last two years for us, and that's despite missing 25% of last season after his face got exploded. He's a slightly above league average player getting paid roughly 50% of what he's worth. Why in the hell would anybody think he's got negative trade value?
  24. Rob
    I seriously doubt Rendon ever logs more than a handful of games at 2B at the MLB level.
  25. Rob
    There was an article a while back, I can't remember exactly what website it was on... but it detailed the dossiers that Boras creates for his clients. He makes these absurd, aggrandizing claims about players where he forecasts what they're on pace to do... even if it's an absurdly long ways away. If memory serves, there's a point in Prince Fielder's dossier pointed out what elite company he'll be in when he keeps up this pace through his age 37 season. The whole thing is kinda a running joke for most front offices in baseball, as most guys aren't dumb enough to buy into any of it. Yet Boras still distributes these dossiers every year... you know why? It works. It works mostly because owners aren't as smart as the front offices they employ, and the George Steinbrenners of the world love to go over their GMs heads when they see a shiny new toy. Boras will do everything he can to make the sale, because more often than we might like to believe, decisions about who signs where aren't always as simple as "is he good enough to be worth that contract?". Hey, who wants to bet davearm is gonna argue with me that owners can't be that stupid?
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