Rob

Losing ARam can only be smoothed over if we get Cabrera and sign him to a Pujols-like contract. Other than that, I see little hope for this offseason if ARam is lost. We could get lucky taking a risk on a guy like Ensberg. What makes you think Houston would trade him to a divison rival? They might not. On the other hand, they have grown so disillusioned with him that I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if they non-tendered him.

Losing ARam can only be smoothed over if we get Cabrera and sign him to a Pujols-like contract. Other than that, I see little hope for this offseason if ARam is lost. We could get lucky taking a risk on a guy like Ensberg.

Hey, cut him some slack. It's not like Buster Olney gets paid to know what's going on in baseball.

http://www.rotoworld.com adds this commentary: It seems as if we might have to mark Burrell off the list of options. I don't imagine that it precludes the Cubs... but rather that he wouldn't be willing to accept the trade until he thought the Cubs had signed enough people to make the club a contender. If we were to re-sign Aramis, get Matsuzaka, and trade for ARod, Burrell would jump at the opportunity, I'm sure.

I'd much rather have Gary Sheffield for the next 3 (assuming he'd force us to ink him to a 2 year extension) than Carlos Lee for five or Soriano for 6. I'd do Marshall for Sheffield in a heartbeat.

Bobby Abreau disagrees. Too bad for Bobby. the stats agree with me... Drew OPS+ 158 148 125 Abreu OPS+ 123 129 120 (as a Phillie, since my claim was that Drew has been the best RF in the NL) Drew beat him all 3 years and pwned him in 04 and 05 Abreu VORP: 73.5 47.0 49.0 (25.5 in NL) Drew VORP: 69.5 26.9 34.9 Seems to me that Drew's rate stats are just as good as, if not better than, Abreu's... but Drew just isn't ever healthy enough. And even in his one healthy year, Abreu stole 40 bases and only got caught 5 times, so he still got the edge. Yes, obviously any player will fall behind in comparison when injured for a good part of the year. Drew was healthy enough in 04 and 06 to be nearly as good and better than Abreu. Well, like it or not, health is a skill, and Bobby Abreu has excelled at it. Bobby Abreu has been better because his baseball skills paired with his health has resulted in more production. If JD Drew were healthy, could he possibly outdo Abreu? Sure, it's possible. Just don't let Drew's flashy rate stats make you confuse potential production with actual production. When looking at their bodies of work... Abreu has been more productive (and hence, better) than Drew for every single season of their careers.

Bobby Abreau disagrees. Too bad for Bobby. the stats agree with me... Drew OPS+ 158 148 125 Abreu OPS+ 123 129 120 (as a Phillie, since my claim was that Drew has been the best RF in the NL) Drew beat him all 3 years and pwned him in 04 and 05 Abreu VORP: 73.5 47.0 49.0 (25.5 in NL) Drew VORP: 69.5 26.9 34.9 Seems to me that Drew's rate stats are just as good as, if not better than, Abreu's... but Drew just isn't ever healthy enough. And even in his one healthy year, Abreu stole 40 bases and only got caught 5 times, so he still got the edge.

Given most of the options talked about so far this offseason, I'd be inclined to agree. But there are certainly a few people that could be available for the right price that I'd rather have patrolling left. Miguel Cabrera Manny Ramirez Adam Dunn Pat Burrell and maybe Barry Bonds would come in #5 on that list. That's more of an economics question than a baseball one. Like it or not, all five of those guys are better ballplayers than Murton right now. Other than Burrell, all of those have high costs in prospects. Bonds only costs dollars and likely would be cheaper than most on that list. You'd really rather have Barry for a couple years than Miggy? Miggy's worth the difference between costs and prospects. At any rate, I have a hard time believing the Reds are looking for too much for Dunn, either. And it might even allow us to unload some of these crappy relief pitcher contracts. No, I'd rather have Miggy, but one still needs to consider the cost. I'd like Dunn too. I think that is well-known as well. I don't think the Reds will give him away though. My point is that Bonds is only going to cost cash in a one-year commitment. Furthermore, if the rumors are correct, he won't cost nearly as much as he should. Bonds for 7-9 million is a bargain given his production. I don't think it should be dismissed. The question is, does he really only cost 7-9 million? I'm under the impression the bad publicity the Cubs could get as a result of signing Bonds might result in such a badly decreased consumer identity that it ends up costing the Cubs a lot of money down the road. I guess what I'm saying is that signing Barry can't be a priority. If he's the last piece that turns this into a competitive team, I'd be all about it... but if we win 65 games next year and he takes the home run record with a Cubs jersey on, the fans will immediately see and think that he was merely a publicity stunt... and a horrible one at that. But if our infield is Barrett, Lee, Durham, ARod, and Aramis... yeah, I'd be all about it.

Given most of the options talked about so far this offseason, I'd be inclined to agree. But there are certainly a few people that could be available for the right price that I'd rather have patrolling left. Miguel Cabrera Manny Ramirez Adam Dunn Pat Burrell and maybe Barry Bonds would come in #5 on that list. That's more of an economics question than a baseball one. Like it or not, all five of those guys are better ballplayers than Murton right now. Other than Burrell, all of those have high costs in prospects. Bonds only costs dollars and likely would be cheaper than most on that list. You'd really rather have Barry for a couple years than Miggy? Miggy's worth the difference between costs and prospects. At any rate, I have a hard time believing the Reds are looking for too much for Dunn, either. And it might even allow us to unload some of these crappy relief pitcher contracts.

Given most of the options talked about so far this offseason, I'd be inclined to agree. But there are certainly a few people that could be available for the right price that I'd rather have patrolling left. Miguel Cabrera Manny Ramirez Adam Dunn Pat Burrell and maybe Barry Bonds would come in #5 on that list. That's more of an economics question than a baseball one. Like it or not, all five of those guys are better ballplayers than Murton right now.

So, we should still receive compensation for Pierre. I won't mention Aramis, because I'm expecting Hendry to give him whatever he wants to stay. Yes, we should... though it's less likely he's a Type A free agent anymore.

It's only completely eliminated for Type C's. With Type B's you no longer receive a pick from the team that signed him, but you get a sandwich pick. Type A's remain the same. Though, classification for them drops from the top 30% at a position to the top 20% (and 21% to 40% for B's, down from 50%)

The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career. He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher. Not a good use of money. The market is what it is for a #3 starter. An average pitcher in the current market that stays relatively healthy makes 7-8 million a year, usually on a 3-year contract. Suppan might get a bit more due to the 'playoff experience'. I'm not sure if it is a poor use of money since you're not going to find much cheaper production from a veteran anyway. Teams are probably better off running two high-priced top-end starters, one average veteran, and two cheap kids from the farm. Suppan and Lilly fit the role of that #3 and you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy cheaper than 7 million at that role. Have we not learned our lesson yet about overpaying for guys that don't make a difference? The team would be much better off picking up Matsuzaka and Schmidt and running them out there with Z, Hill, and Prior (or whoever is healthy). Yeah, we'd have to tear the overpriced, mediocre bullpen apart to get salary relief... but we'd have a good pitching staff. There's nothing wrong with a league-average innings guy. They do have value. But that value is nowhere near what they will be making. Personally, I'd just rather spend the extra money on guys who will make a difference than doll out the cash for league average guys. Because, in general, league average guys will lead to a league average team... and not a great one.

Atlee seems to be doing fairly well. Any chance he's auditioning for a spot in the pen come spring training?

The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career. He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher. Not a good use of money.

Is Jose Tabata no longer being thought of as a CF?

No Veal, Pie, or Fox? Sorry, I don't buy that they aren't all in the top 10 at their respective positions. I guess that's why I don't pay for BA, though...

Molina is neither good defensively anymore nor anything beyond barely serviceable with the bat. Stay far, far away.

Why would the Reds ever agree to that? Maybe Izturis is open to switching to middle relief?

I'd be surprised if it's not just dip spit. If you don't get that stuff off pronto, it doesn't come off.

Actually, he was the one leading the charge to try and keep the team in the wild card in 2004. Aramis isn't nearly so lazy as the hack-job journalists would have you believe.

What is the general consensus on Matthews? My guess is that he will get a deal too expensive and too long for his skills. Other opinions? I feel about him essentially the same way I felt about Jacque Jones. Yeah, he's an alright player. But he wont be worth the money or years he gets... and he's not the best thing on the market. Gary Matthews should be the type of guy we try to sign to one or two year deal when every other avenue is exhausted before the season. There's better targets to set our eyes on.

A-rod. I'm pretty sure it's all been speculation at this point (particularly, the inclusion of Hill), but it does make some sense, so it's worth considering. Wouldn't the Yankees likely be able to get a better package for ARod from another team? I'm going to go out on a limb and state that Hill and spare parts wont' do it. Hill simply is not a proven top of the rotation SP, and that is what the Yankees will likely demand, IMO. To address the topic presented in this thread, the Cubs would probably pull the trigger on a Hill centered trade for Arod if this were offerred....and then sign 2 FA SPs There aren't really that many teams that can absorb A-Rod's $23 million salary this year. I guarantee that other teams could offer more in terms of players, but their payroll just won't support it. Texas is picking up a sizable chunk of that contract. New York is paying 16 per year, I believe.

All I know is that I've increased my beer budget by 20%

QFT, sans a minor grammar error. However, I'm really not certain if the incident itself is more an indictment of Merker or Dusty. Yeah, Kent shouldn't have called the booth, but Dusty never should have allowed him to be watching the television broadcast instead of the game on the field anyways. Probably a bit of fault to both of them. After those problems, Stone didn't handle himself well either... but the blame falls on the guys down in the dugout, not up in the booth.