Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Yeah, I agree. I especially like discussion on pitching mechanics since I know much less about them than hitting. Well I'm sure you probably already have heard of it, but if you haven't I'd suggest reading "Saving the Pitcher" by Will Carrol.
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Given our clubs offensive woes and pitching depth, I'm sure I'm rather have Weiters.
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FWIW, the fielding stats used by John Dewan are fairly advanced. Each game is watched and the balls in play are tracked by what vector they are on, how hard they are hit, etc... and each player is given credit for plays they make that the average player at that position wouldn't make, or deducted points for each play the average player would have made that he didn't. It's not a perfect stat, but it is much better than junk like Fielding Percentage or Range Factor.
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i doubt little leaguers have the bat control to foul stuff off Are you kidding me? I know some guys on my little league team who hit almost nothing but foul balls. :lol:
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Well they paid Marquis 21M over 3 seasons. The absolute worst case scenario with offering Maddux arbritration is having him awarded around 15M for one year, and it likely wouldn't be quite that bad. We could, and did, do worse than keeping Maddux for this season in our rotation baseball wise, and it's hard for me to believe one year of Maddux at 15M isn't still better than three years of Marquis at 21M from a financial perspective. I'm inclined to agree. I've always been of the mind that it's real hard to have a bad one-year deal... -
Has anyone affiliated with the team indicated anything like this? Rightly or wrongly, it seems like the club itself is feeling pretty good about having Izturis there. agreed. despite the feelings on this board to the contrary, very few if any winning teams have all star players at all 8 positions. if izturis can stay healthy, hit .250 and play excellent defense i think the cubs will be very happy with his production. with 4 potential .900 ops guys (5 if you include murton), i highly doubt a light hitting ss will keep this team from contending. Building a team based on players who wont "keep this team from contending" is hardly a solid approach to take. of course not. the cubs should just trade izturis to the yankees for arod & mariano and then they would be set. somehow the cards managed to win last year with a light hitting short stop just like the sox won with one in 2005. Wow. All I was trying to say is that any decision by the front office to be complacent with Izturis at SS is a stupid decision. I'm not saying we couldn't possibly overcome an offensive black hole at SS, but Izturis is a far cry offensively from even Eckstein or Uribe.
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Has anyone affiliated with the team indicated anything like this? Rightly or wrongly, it seems like the club itself is feeling pretty good about having Izturis there. agreed. despite the feelings on this board to the contrary, very few if any winning teams have all star players at all 8 positions. if izturis can stay healthy, hit .250 and play excellent defense i think the cubs will be very happy with his production. with 4 potential .900 ops guys (5 if you include murton), i highly doubt a light hitting ss will keep this team from contending. Building a team based on players who wont "keep this team from contending" is hardly a solid approach to take.
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CERA has always been regarded a junk stat. It's fun to play around with, but it doesn't mean a bloody thing.
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Off the top of my head, the highest theoretical value would come from something like this... Lee Ramirez Nomar Soriano Murton Barrett Jones Walker Might want to adjust that if we're facing a team with a Bradford type pitcher that destroys righties, though. A better conventional-style one would probably look like this though. Murton Walker Lee Ramirez Soriano Nomar Jones Barrett I really like the idea of Nomar behind Soriano. A high contact guy like him would help to maximize the value of Soriano's SB. And I really like the idea of a lineup where Barrett could be batted 8th without too much of a fight from the board.
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You can offer your own free agents arbitration. If they decline, that's where draft pick compensation comes into play and the team who loses that player will get a pick or 2 if the player is rated at a certain level of all MLB players. huh? :? Essentially, arbitration applies not only to younger players under club control, but for any player whose contract is about to run out (remember: younger players are given one year contracts each year). You can offer arbitration to any player on your team whose contract has run out after the season. In the case of the guys under club control, they're stuck with accepting it. In the case of older guys, they have the choice to accept or decline. If they accept the offer of arbitration (as Walker did), they are automatically tendered a one-year contract for an amount TBD by an arbitrator if they are unable to settle on an amount. If they decline the offer of arbitration to sign with another team, the team that lost the player will be compensated with extra picks in the next draft.
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Jered Weaver suffering from biceps tendinitis
Rob replied to baseball7897's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Jesus, lighten up on the guy. Actually, I was making the joke to imply everybody else should lighten up. Though I suppose my deadpanning didn't come across well. baseball7897 and I are civil to each other now, policing me is hardly necessary. Edit: Almost forgot. I'm not actually Jesus, but I appreciate the notion I'm close enough to be confused for him. -
"Well the key to this game was obviously this play. Watch Neifi there. Now when I'm fishing, I realize that the lure and cast are every bit as important as waiting for the big one to bite, dude. So watch Neifi lure the infielders in with what looks to be like a regular bunt. Then he just went and slapped that ball, dude. If the third baseman hadn't been right where he put that, the Tigers would have won this game."
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Jered Weaver suffering from biceps tendinitis
Rob replied to baseball7897's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This should be in rivalries. -
Dear god, Make it stop. Amen.
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Are they trying to get you to build the best overall team possible from a list of gold glovers, or pick the best team only taking defense into account? I'd assume the latter, but the former would make for a much more interesting discussion. I love Sandberg, but his defense is lacking when compared to a Mazeroski.
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All Cubs Players Have Reported (was Are any other Cubs?)
Rob replied to Mizzou's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Aramis impressed me enough by leaving 40 mil on the table, he'd have to sit out til May without an excuse to bring himself back to breakeven in my book. -
which is pretty much what a manager's job should be. I guess every single manager in baseball is doing his job wrong then. Earl Weaver was accused more than once of being a push-button manager. It works damn well if you know what buttons to push, as I think he showed.
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Again, FWIW PECOTA predict a .278/.342/.426 line for Pagan, and .245/.318/.378 for Finley. I don't have time to check the other projection systems, but I can't imagine any being too high on a 42 year old who has suffered a severe dropoff lately. What does PECOTA draw that information from? He's never posted that high of an OPS in his entire minor league career (excluding extremely small sample sizes). His minor league career numbers are: .281/.340/.371 Well the average and on base percentage appear in line. Is it really too hard to believe a 25 year old will add some power?
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While I blast Soriano as much as anybody... he did go 30 for 32 on the basepaths two years ago. Depending on which version of Soriano shows up on the bases, it might not be a huge deal for him to be running that often.
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Again, FWIW PECOTA predict a .278/.342/.426 line for Pagan, and .245/.318/.378 for Finley. I don't have time to check the other projection systems, but I can't imagine any being too high on a 42 year old who has suffered a severe dropoff lately.
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That seems about right to me. Murton should get every at-bat against left-handed starters. That should be somewhere around 200 PA right there. If he gets even 1/3 of the starts aginst right-handed starters, then that would put him at 350, and pinch-hitting and double switches could probably push him up to 400. Jones ends up getting the most at-bats because he is the only one reliable enough to play RF right now (I hope that Murton gets out there and gets acclimated quickly to RF so Murton and Floyd can play against some lefties, I don't want to see Floyd in RF at all), and Floyd takes the rest of the right handed at-bats from Murton and a few of the left-handed bats from Jones. I know many of you hate this practice, but history against certain pitchers might dictate some of the matchups. I don't mind it in a situation like this when the players are likely to be similarly productive anyway (although in different ways)-it's bad when you start Blanco over Barrett because of it, but I think it can be helpful in deciding between similar players for that day. I can also see Lou changing his lineup based on which way the wind is blowing at Wrigley. Forgot to factor in their PH predictions... that's another 93 PA for Murton, which would give him more overall PA than Floyd or Jones (they didn't predict PH for either of them...)
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FWIW BP's depth charts predict Murton getting 40% of the PA from LF and 15% from RF for 401 PA... Floyd 373 PA... and Jones 484 PA. Doesn't seem too far from being logical...
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Not a day off, just no Cubs pics. Ozzie looks to be checking out some ass: http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070218/capt.azmg10302181934.white_sox_spring_baseball_azmg103.jpg The White Sox go to Arizona for spring training right? Or is it Florida? I can never remember. But either way, is the heavy jacket really necessary there Ozzie? Arizona, they're out in Tucson. They used to train in Florida, but switched to Arizona a few years ago (I don't recall exactly when). I'd be fairly confident in a prediction that he wears that thing in the shower. Guy is a sociopath.
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I always conceed SV on Yahoo leagues. Hell, in my league last year I ran Liriano out of the RP spot (after he got moved into the rotation). It gave me a leg up on all the stats but saves... Granted, Liriano is a special case, but I'm sure you can find a couple solid pitching prospects who came out of the pen last year, or start this year in it. (Brandon McCarthy springs to mind)
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who will be a surprising dark horse and how that plays out
Rob replied to Ivy Walls's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
On a positive note, I'll predict Scott Moore makes Lou think twice about his decision to carry 12 pitchers to start off the season.
