Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Nevermind, I solved my problem... I traded Vlad for Crawford and there was an exchange of draft picks... I'm now going 12, 37, 42, 55, 60, 61, and 66. That works fine for me, as I always overdraft guys I find underrated. Now I can just take them around where they're likely to go. Pujols Arod Crawford Rollins That's a pretty good start.
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Oriole Insider Quits Providing Info
Rob replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Since when has Peace21 provided info? -
wowsers...those 4 guys might be the only way to do poorly in BA whilst having studs Pujols, Arod and Vlad on your team. On first glance, it seems that mix of players would have a ridiculous surplus in HR/RBI and you might suffer in other cats like SB, BA needlessly. But that's purely a subjective reaction, I might be way off base. I did the math... I'm a pretty sure bet to place 1st in R, HR, RBI... mid-range in BA, and even in the top half in SB. If I can put together at least an average pitching staff, I'm in real good shape as far as making the playoffs (yeah, this is a H2H league).
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average starter C should be roughly .286/59/15/72/3 average starter 2B should be roughly .284/89/17/76/13 average starter RF should be roughly .290/85/22/90/11 basically a cumulative avg of the projs: mauer .314/73/11/70/9 upton .281/86/18/71/29 vlad .317/94/29/109/8 talking about how these players fare vs. the average startable guys at their positions (i.e. ~pence, posada, kinsler): mauer +0.028/+14/-4/-2/+6 upton -0.003/-3/+1/-5/+16 vlad +0.027/+9/+7/+19/-3 vlad does look like the best bet to be largest upgrade over the midtier guys, though i like upton to have much better RBI totals than the projections. I like Upton too, but I think he's gonna be overrated in most drafts. Considering I'm gonna have to start from scratch on pitching, I think I'm gonna try to save most draft picks for that... If all goes according to plan, I should get one of Soto/Towles at C, Weeks at 2B, Dunn in LF, and Swisher in CF... plus the random best hitter still available for UTIL. Hopefully, I can use some of my earlier picks to grab Felix, Hill, and Lincecum... and I'll feel pretty good.
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Who says "dag nabbit" nowadays, dawg gonnit?
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I think this is an excellent question to ask and what could be the first step to quantifying situational hitting. Instead of weighting all ABs the same, you could weight a BB with no one on base the same as a 1B for that particular AB. Maybe a HR will have a proportionally greater coefficient applied than a 2B or 3B when there are two outs as opposed to no outs. Baseball players DO change their approach at the plate depending on the score of the game, the inning, the number of outs, whos hitting behind them, what the count is, and so on. I'd imagine how effectively someone changes their approach could also be accounted for in a catch-all WINS created stat (as opposed to runs created stat) with enough data...and an insane amount of number crunching and research. It's probably more effort than it's worth, in all honesty. We'd be talking about pretty slight variations. I usually feel fine just looking at EqA and WPA when I'm trying to evaluate those sorts of things.
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I would like to point you towards my sig.
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That's a bit difficult, considering there are still some holes on this team that are very likely to be filled in with a minor trade or signing (such as a backup CF), but as of today, I'd say at least these guys are sure bets to make the team. C - Soto 1B - Lee 2B - DeRosa SS - Theriot 3B - Ramirez LF - Soriano CF - Pie RF - Fukudome Bench: Blanco Ward Murton SP1 - Zambrano SP2 - Lilly SP3 - Hill SP4 - Marquis SP5 - Lieber Bullpen: Wood Howry Marmol Wuertz Dempster Eyre The last three spots are between Cedeno, Fontenot, Fuld, EPatt, Gallagher, Lahey, Marshall, Cotts, Pignatiello, and maybe some others I'm not thinking of.
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Who cares?
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i dnto thkin thsi wolud mkae hmi blsuh
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Let's try an exercise in logic here... Take a look at this team... C - Victor Martinez 1B - Albert Pujols 2B - Jeff Kent SS - Miguel Tejada 3B - Miguel Cabrera LF - Manny Ramirez CF - Nick Swisher RF - Vladamir Guerrero This team can absolutely mash, but is perhaps the single worst team on the basepaths in the history of baseball. Now replace Manny Ramirez with Juan Pierre and slot that bad mofo at leadoff. Does this team score more or less runs? Moral of the story is, you concentrate on getting the best eight players on the field that you possibly can. Then you worry about what order to bat them in. Trying to acquire batters based on where they fit in the lineup is bass ackwards, and is never a good idea.
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I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal. And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else. It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there... Your league is conspiring to let you win. At any rate, I'd keep Pujols, Arod, Rollins (3 top-6 players??) and Upton. His K rate should drop by a reasonable amount, from 32.5% to like 27%. .275 seems likely, which isn't a problem with BA stalwart Pujols and he'll have 20 hr 30 sb on top of that, maybe more. Hitting in the 3 spot of a dynamic young lineup he should also have healthy run production stats too. The 2nd best 2B in fantasy baseball this year. That'll probably be the best IF ever comprised in fantasy baseball. I think 2B is gonna be a bit easier to find somebody to approximate Uptons production than Vlad in RF or Mauer at C. I'm leaning towards Vlad at the moment.
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One of your Marquis projections is flipped (unless somebody is really calling for a WHIP over 5). All in all, I've come pretty darn close on a majority of the predictions.
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Ha! It looks like Hendry might've gotten fed up and dropped the offer down a few notches.
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I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal. And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else. It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there...
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Off the top of my head, your best bets for that one are Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, and Hee Seop Choi.
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Has anybody made a bad "penis enhancement" joke yet in this thread? If not, I'm disappointed.
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Kosuke Fukudome Translations (very good ones)
Rob replied to Mephistopheles's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Johjima played 162 games in 2003? :shock: All in all, very interesting. You've done a hell of a job. -
I am the Bloomington Bums.
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Mind if I piggyback onto this thread too? Standard 5x5 league, 12 teams, we get four keepers... and I managed to put together one hell of an offense last season. (LF, CF, RF instead of 3 OF) Mauer Pujols BJ Upton Rollins ARod Manny Ellsbury Vlad Hafner My pitching staff is fairly weak, but holds a few gems in Felix and Lincecum. I don't think either of those two is in mortal danger of going in the first few rounds of our redraft, so I'm not gonna bother asking about them... But how the hell do you pick four guys off that offense? Pujols and ARod are gimmes, but who else?
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I'm gonna need to see some sort of a rebound from Lugo before I get even remotely interested.
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You can forget about Votto or Keppinger batting 2nd. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060221&content_id=1317995&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb Let's be completely honest here. Dusty Baker cannot be predicted, even by Dusty Baker. He's gonna do whatever the hell looks right to him, and then attempt to rationalize it with some crazy metaphor later.
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Yeah, I guess no matter our option it's still real ugly.
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I'm assuming Juan Uribe and not former Giant SS Jose Uribe. :wink: His contract is expensive but he's a better defensive SS while being one of the more frustrating players to watch at the plate, despite having some pop. It would be a tough decision between Theriot and Uribe, although I would lean towards keeping Theriot. Of the two, it'd be a real close call... But Uribe has an edge of at least 10-15 runs with the glove. Can Theriot real make it up with the bat?
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And yet it still speaks volumes that he's definately a better option than Theriot. They don't necessarily have to take over in July. If Furcal or Gonzalez was injured earlier in the season, and Hu or Keppinger came up and raked as the replacement, I could definately see the GMs trading their now-expendable starting SS off once they've come back and shown they are healthy in limited PT. I'm not huge on either one, personally. To be honest, the fact that we're discussing them makes me want to vomit. But again, they're still very likely to be better than Theriot, and if the price is right, you gotta pull that trigger. It's just as likely Asdrubal Cabrera or Brent Lillibridge are blocked by those guys and are available instead. And I could definately see the Braves and Cubs matching up pretty well in a trade. Considering the relative fragility of their rotation, and all the spare pieces in ours... plus the complete potential for Diaz to implode when those BABIPs come back to earth... Well, Gallagher and Murton for Lilllibridge and a lower prospect would be amazing for me at the deadline. But we can't really make that deal if we've traded those boys off for Roberts, can we? Agreed. It is completely unacceptible that Hendry has allowed such a huge hole to remain on our "competitive" squad this far into the offseason.
