Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Meph, 16 days ago you accused me and/or my source of fabricating a story. You should know this: I will continue to post rumors from sources, who I believe to be credible based on my history with them regardless of how unreasonable or unrealistic you think the trade scenarios are. I am not in the business of fabrication. I am always very clear on this board differentiating between deals I've heard vs. deals I am suggesting. And considering that Bruce Miles (who I think we can all agree has an absolute stellar reputation for facts in addition to being very generous with his time here), has chimed in twice in the last 7 days that there may have been/may be some discussions going on, at least now I feel good for my source, who you unfairly through under the bus. The information that the 2 teams had or are having discussions was not only credible, it was real and confirmed regardless of what your stamp of approval may or may not think. 1 pt. for Hoops. -
Pitchers and Catchers Report - Official ST Pic/News Thread
Rob replied to Roast's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's the best news so far this season. Guzman could end up coming in very handy if he can make it back for the tail end of the season. -
Yeah, he's gotta end up getting somewhere around $20M per year. There is NO WAY CC is going to get $20 mill, unless it's the Yanks. And IDK if the new Yanks are going to break the bank on a lefty who isn't even in Johan Santana's class. If Johan can't break the $20 mill barrier, then I doubt CC (who has YET to win a Cy Young) gets more then say $15-17 mill per. Santana is getting over 20 mil per year.
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Still, he's pitched well in excess of 200 innings in five of the last six seasons, his highest ERA in that span being a 3.49. Hamels can be much better, but Oswalt has a lot less variance.
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I love Hill as much as the next guy, but he has no business being on that list for this coming season. His ADP is somewhere in the 120's. (Whereas the first round of your redraft is gonna essentially start at 72, assuming you have 12 teams) Definately keep Upton, but Hamels and Oswalt is kinda a tossup. I'd lean Hamels, personally.
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http://www.picturethisgallery.com/Artists/Bullas,%20Will/Porcelains/Hogwash.jpg
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When asked if he thinks PA will sign off on it: Enjoy 8-) Has BigBird verified this info? He was the one who asked Belkast if he thought PA would sign off on it.
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I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable throwing the years and money at him that it'll take to sign him.
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Pitchers and Catchers Report - Official ST Pic/News Thread
Rob replied to Roast's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I was really hoping to see Lou report in shape... -
1. Alex Rodriguez 2. Albert Pujols 3. Hanley Ramirez 4. Jose Reyes 5. Ryan Braun 6. David Wright 7. Chase Utley
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Nevermind, I solved my problem... I traded Vlad for Crawford and there was an exchange of draft picks... I'm now going 12, 37, 42, 55, 60, 61, and 66. That works fine for me, as I always overdraft guys I find underrated. Now I can just take them around where they're likely to go. Pujols Arod Crawford Rollins That's a pretty good start.
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Oriole Insider Quits Providing Info
Rob replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Since when has Peace21 provided info? -
wowsers...those 4 guys might be the only way to do poorly in BA whilst having studs Pujols, Arod and Vlad on your team. On first glance, it seems that mix of players would have a ridiculous surplus in HR/RBI and you might suffer in other cats like SB, BA needlessly. But that's purely a subjective reaction, I might be way off base. I did the math... I'm a pretty sure bet to place 1st in R, HR, RBI... mid-range in BA, and even in the top half in SB. If I can put together at least an average pitching staff, I'm in real good shape as far as making the playoffs (yeah, this is a H2H league).
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average starter C should be roughly .286/59/15/72/3 average starter 2B should be roughly .284/89/17/76/13 average starter RF should be roughly .290/85/22/90/11 basically a cumulative avg of the projs: mauer .314/73/11/70/9 upton .281/86/18/71/29 vlad .317/94/29/109/8 talking about how these players fare vs. the average startable guys at their positions (i.e. ~pence, posada, kinsler): mauer +0.028/+14/-4/-2/+6 upton -0.003/-3/+1/-5/+16 vlad +0.027/+9/+7/+19/-3 vlad does look like the best bet to be largest upgrade over the midtier guys, though i like upton to have much better RBI totals than the projections. I like Upton too, but I think he's gonna be overrated in most drafts. Considering I'm gonna have to start from scratch on pitching, I think I'm gonna try to save most draft picks for that... If all goes according to plan, I should get one of Soto/Towles at C, Weeks at 2B, Dunn in LF, and Swisher in CF... plus the random best hitter still available for UTIL. Hopefully, I can use some of my earlier picks to grab Felix, Hill, and Lincecum... and I'll feel pretty good.
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Who says "dag nabbit" nowadays, dawg gonnit?
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I think this is an excellent question to ask and what could be the first step to quantifying situational hitting. Instead of weighting all ABs the same, you could weight a BB with no one on base the same as a 1B for that particular AB. Maybe a HR will have a proportionally greater coefficient applied than a 2B or 3B when there are two outs as opposed to no outs. Baseball players DO change their approach at the plate depending on the score of the game, the inning, the number of outs, whos hitting behind them, what the count is, and so on. I'd imagine how effectively someone changes their approach could also be accounted for in a catch-all WINS created stat (as opposed to runs created stat) with enough data...and an insane amount of number crunching and research. It's probably more effort than it's worth, in all honesty. We'd be talking about pretty slight variations. I usually feel fine just looking at EqA and WPA when I'm trying to evaluate those sorts of things.
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I would like to point you towards my sig.
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That's a bit difficult, considering there are still some holes on this team that are very likely to be filled in with a minor trade or signing (such as a backup CF), but as of today, I'd say at least these guys are sure bets to make the team. C - Soto 1B - Lee 2B - DeRosa SS - Theriot 3B - Ramirez LF - Soriano CF - Pie RF - Fukudome Bench: Blanco Ward Murton SP1 - Zambrano SP2 - Lilly SP3 - Hill SP4 - Marquis SP5 - Lieber Bullpen: Wood Howry Marmol Wuertz Dempster Eyre The last three spots are between Cedeno, Fontenot, Fuld, EPatt, Gallagher, Lahey, Marshall, Cotts, Pignatiello, and maybe some others I'm not thinking of.
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Who cares?
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i dnto thkin thsi wolud mkae hmi blsuh
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Let's try an exercise in logic here... Take a look at this team... C - Victor Martinez 1B - Albert Pujols 2B - Jeff Kent SS - Miguel Tejada 3B - Miguel Cabrera LF - Manny Ramirez CF - Nick Swisher RF - Vladamir Guerrero This team can absolutely mash, but is perhaps the single worst team on the basepaths in the history of baseball. Now replace Manny Ramirez with Juan Pierre and slot that bad mofo at leadoff. Does this team score more or less runs? Moral of the story is, you concentrate on getting the best eight players on the field that you possibly can. Then you worry about what order to bat them in. Trying to acquire batters based on where they fit in the lineup is bass ackwards, and is never a good idea.
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I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal. And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else. It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there... Your league is conspiring to let you win. At any rate, I'd keep Pujols, Arod, Rollins (3 top-6 players??) and Upton. His K rate should drop by a reasonable amount, from 32.5% to like 27%. .275 seems likely, which isn't a problem with BA stalwart Pujols and he'll have 20 hr 30 sb on top of that, maybe more. Hitting in the 3 spot of a dynamic young lineup he should also have healthy run production stats too. The 2nd best 2B in fantasy baseball this year. That'll probably be the best IF ever comprised in fantasy baseball. I think 2B is gonna be a bit easier to find somebody to approximate Uptons production than Vlad in RF or Mauer at C. I'm leaning towards Vlad at the moment.
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One of your Marquis projections is flipped (unless somebody is really calling for a WHIP over 5). All in all, I've come pretty darn close on a majority of the predictions.
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Ha! It looks like Hendry might've gotten fed up and dropped the offer down a few notches.
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I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal. And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else. It's too easy to grab saves off the waiver wire to waste a keeper selection on any closer. Hell, I grabbed Putz in the 15th round last year. There's always somebody out there...
