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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    If the owners need to be incentivized, why does it need to be a reward? The franchise with the worst record in baseball should be forced to sell to new ownership. Every year. Or if you'd rather, attach the ownership getting shitcanned to the draft lottery. That'd keep more owners "honest."
  2. Rob

    Third Base

    Rob replied to Jssanto's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    I imagine that if Kim were available for the same offer as Busch, Hoyer would have likely gone with Kim. I'm guessing he costs Busch plus another somewhat significant piece.
  3. Rob
    Which is just a trade bonus with more steps involved.
  4. Rob
    No, it happened to me too. But you can get rid of it by adjusting your filter. Mine doesn't include news articles anymore.
  5. Rob
    Meh. He's a shutdown reliever. He's going to be easy to move during the teardown as long as his arm is attached to his body. It'll just be a function of how much contract needs eaten.
  6. Rob
    They've both got some pretty big warts, but gun to my head -- I'd probably say Chapman is the better bet for the short term. But it'd be darn near even odds on that bet. Chapman's approach has always led to some streaky results. But right when he was mashing the ball in late July / early August is when he jammed his finger. So it's possible some of the massive 2nd half downturn is simply due to trying to play through that injury. If so, there's a pretty easy path to see how his bat recovers. There's just a lot more going on with Bellinger's batted ball data and approach, and that lends itself to more uncertainty. If I had faith last year's production could be replicated, he'd be the easy choice. That's particularly true over the length of a long-term contract. But I just don't have that faith.
  7. Rob
    Not 1908, but it's pretty clearly from baseballsavant. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#statcast_rankings
  8. Rob
    I don't think there's anybody on this board that doesn't want Bellinger. It's all about the contract. If it's 200M, the contract outweighs the player.
  9. Rob
    I've been trying to avoid it because it feels really lazy, but I like an Anthony Rizzo comp. A lot of that depends on the AAA strikeout rate development sticking, but if it does...
  10. Rob
    Oh yeah, he's absolutely terrible out there. But my head canon is basically that he spent his whole career as an infielder and just hasn't learned how to judge a flyball off the bat yet. Let him DH this year, but have him work every day in the outfield before games. Eventually, some small part of me believes he can get to the point he might be playable out there. The tools are just too good for me to wrap my head around him being that bad. I feel like something eventually has to click. And if it does, wow.
  11. Rob
    With his speed and arm, I have to believe the Cubs are going to spend a lot of time this season trying to make him an outfielder. He could be a superlative RF if they can just develop his instincts out there.
  12. Rob
    Press conference wins factor into real wins at a conversion rate of 420:69.
  13. Rob
    He'd have to stop being weird on the internet. I just don't think he's capable of that.
  14. Rob
    In fairness, sometimes a slower fastball can be more effective. When Zambrano would reach back and really try to let one rip, the thing was straight as an arrow and lacked all the movement that made it an effective pitch. Of course, that's not a real defense of the move, but I'm going to laugh if Farhan falls back-assward into this being a great contract because Hicks fastball suddenly works when he throws it slower.
  15. Rob
    FWIW, ZiPS projections may be twenty years old now, but the underlying projection system is continually receiving tweaks. He started folding in Statcast data a few years back. So to head off any arguments at the pass -- yes, these projections are incorporating advanced analytics like exit velocity, launch angle, spin rates, etc...
  16. Rob
    I appear to have stolen Derwood's bandwidth. Don't make me give it back.
  17. Rob
    Yeah, at this point it's pretty clear what the Cubs think of Mervis. If another team comes along looking to plunder him, I doubt it would take much. That said, he's decent depth, and the Cubs are probably perfectly content to give him a list of things to work on and see if he can't fix something in AAA until roster issues force them to make a decision.
  18. Rob
    It's possible, if incredibly unlikely, that Counsell decides to try out some Kevin Mitchell defensive alignment. Morel or Busch may be more viable as infielders with Imanaga and his crazy FB tendencies on the mound. I don't see it as likely, but Counsell is more of a tinkerer. He might like the rare matchup.
  19. Rob
    I like Busch more than Morel, if only because we need some more left-handed bats. And Busch certainly has that. But honestly, I wondered if acquiring him meant we expect Hoskins to sign elsewhere. I kinda figured Busch was ticketed for 1B/DH rather than trying to play him at 3B.
  20. Rob
    With all cheap arms, the real answer to #2 is going to be "we see something that we think we can tweak to turn him into an effective reliever."
  21. Rob
    Less. That'd be more like 4/60 now.
  22. Rob
    The Fangraphs Depth Chart predictions (which are admittedly trash) have him as our #2 starter behind Steele. I imagine it'll probably look similar when ZiPS comes out. This also helps with the pen a bit, assuming some guys like Wesneski who might not make the rotation have a chance to see if their stuff plays up out of the bullpen.
  23. Rob
    I'm guessing the 2/30 "minimum" is actually an awkward middle ground. Thus far, we've been seeing reports that this thing is structured in a very convoluted way with multiple player and team options. 2/30 is probably what happens if neither side exercises those options, which is a rarity. Typically, we'd expect that he'd either pitch well enough that the team exercises their options, or he's ineffective/injured to the point that the player is exercising their options (which would presumably take this past 2/30.) Unless those player/team options are structured in incredibly unconventional ways, I sincerely doubt this plays out as 2/30.
  24. Rob
    More or less the same from me.
  25. Rob
    Interested to see if this board still complains about Jed.
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