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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Hendry is a joke, but your position on this is laughably naive. Awful as they are, Hendry and Quade are still in management. You can't let your employees run roughshod over you like this, or you run the risk of everyone doing it. I'm sure both of them still aspire to work in baseball after we sack them; letting Z have his way again would only undermine whatever respect they've earned in MLB over the years. Not that I care, but Z instigated this, not the FO. And Z isn't worth the trouble anyway. You and JR act like it's still 08. His #'s suck. So what you're saying is that the other 29 teams in baseball not only constantly discipline players who aren't actually breaking any major rules, but that they do it so often that Hendry and Quade would be laughed out of baseball for not doing so? That's interesting, because I can't think of a single instance by a team other than the Cubs... at least not at the major league level. Oh, and Z's numbers don't suck as badly as you think they do... especially when compared to his likely replacements for the rotation next year. That's not what I said, it's what you typed. And again, this incident isn't bad in a vacuum. But Z's history warrants discipline. He had to know he's on a short leash after last year. And we don't know who's replacing him yet. That argument can wait until we do. I'm failing to see the part where I was wrong in my interpretation of what you wrote. I said we're the only team in baseball that does this. You said I was being "laughably naive" and implied Hendry/Quade would have trouble getting jobs if they didn't do this. I asked for examples of other teams doing this. What am I missing?
  2. I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano. If I had to bet on who would have a better season next year, it'd be Zambrano, but not by a landslide or anything. Zambrano's got a 4.5ish FIP, is on the wrong side of 30 and has almost 2,000 innings on his arm. The peripherals this season point to long-term problems. Okay, maybe Coleman is a bad example, but it shouldn't be that hard to find pitchers capable of doing what Zambrano's been doing. I've been saying this for a while now, but Z is one of those guys who kinda falls into a bunch of cracks in modern statistical evaluations. FIP undersells him in large part because it assumes all pitchers have equal skill when it comes to controlling the running game. Normally that's an assumption that wont make a huge difference, but Z definitely belongs at the extreme end of the spectrum, as many pickoffs as he gets and as few stolen bases as he allows. FIP also by its very definition assumes all fielders are the same... so a pitchers own defensive value isn't reflected in FIP. I'd peg Z as above average in that regard as well. So there's a couple factors artificially inflating his FIP... is it going to make a huge difference? No, probably not. But can it add up to a quarter or a third of a run? Sure it can. And then there's his bat to reconcile. His batting prowess doesn't show up in FIP or WAR or anywhere people would typically look. But I don't think anybody is going to question that he's an extremely good hitter for a pitcher... contributing probably somewhere in the realm of an extra 5 runs per year with the bat. That's roughly equal to slicing another quarter or third of a point off of his FIP. Even after all of that, is he an ace? No. He's not anymore. But he's a pretty equivalent package to a pitcher who is average at hitting, fielding, and controlling the running game while posting an ERA or FIP in the mid to high 3's. Would anybody be this eager to trash and unload a guy if Ryan Dempster had a bad attitude?
  3. Hendry is a joke, but your position on this is laughably naive. Awful as they are, Hendry and Quade are still in management. You can't let your employees run roughshod over you like this, or you run the risk of everyone doing it. I'm sure both of them still aspire to work in baseball after we sack them; letting Z have his way again would only undermine whatever respect they've earned in MLB over the years. Not that I care, but Z instigated this, not the FO. And Z isn't worth the trouble anyway. You and JR act like it's still 08. His #'s suck. So what you're saying is that the other 29 teams in baseball not only constantly discipline players who aren't actually breaking any major rules, but that they do it so often that Hendry and Quade would be laughed out of baseball for not doing so? That's interesting, because I can't think of a single instance by a team other than the Cubs... at least not at the major league level. Oh, and Z's numbers don't suck as badly as you think they do... especially when compared to his likely replacements for the rotation next year.
  4. I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano.
  5. Seriously? The relationship is permanently damaged anyways, may as well try and put the money to better use. If we could, that wouldn't be a problem. But it's a guaranteed contract and Z wants to pitch. Unless I'm missing something major, there's no chance the union wont get all the money back.
  6. Of course, this move would save roughly $3 million if it stands. Seems like a shrewd move in a lost season, although I can't imagine it will stand on appeal. The chances the MLBPA doesn't manage to recover his entire salary is almost nil. Denny Neagle got it all after being cut for banging prostitutes... Z got frustrated and threw an extremely minor temper tantrum lasting less than a day (his agent has even come out today and said he's "not in the retirement mode.") So yeah... Z is gonna get paid his full salary. And we'll get to see Casey Coleman get shelled next season while we miss the playoffs again.
  7. Hendry is such a [expletive] joke... We are quite literally the only team in baseball that disciplines guys for being dicks.
  8. I had a chance to go to today's Peoria game, but the other people I was gonna go with said they'd rather go tomorrow. So instead of Del Valle, it looks like I'll see Wallach... kinda disappointed by that. Still, he's at least semi-interesting. Anybody have anything they'd like me to keep an eye on?
  9. Z probably will show up tomorrow in the clubhouse and make a quick apology. I imagine most of the players will forgive him before he even needs to say anything... everybody realizes how frustrating this season is. Quade seems like he'll probably hold a grudge, but as poorly as he's handled personnel this year... well, I don't think that'll matter for next season. Hendry has already been trying to find a way to unload Z for a couple seasons now. I don't see this changing anything in that regard... maybe a few of the racist articles make Z a bit more amenable to waiving his NTC this offseason. But the fact of the matter is that Hendry is trying to hold onto his job, and even if he manages to blame this season on injuries and Mike Quade (and it's looking like he may be successful in that regard), he's still going to be under a lot of pressure. Releasing Zambrano is admitting a very expensive failure. Unloading him without getting back any useful pieces or salary relief is admitting a very expensive failure. His only hope of trying to salvage the situation is keeping Z around. Knowing Hendry, there will probably be a suspension with some public statements intended to scapegoat Z, a few attempts to trade him (shocking how little you get offered when you trash your own players), and he'll be in the rotation next spring... slotted in at SP4 or some nonsense.
  10. Dad's gonna be crushed! :lol:
  11. The Gretsky deal is back on. Once again, per Jim Callis on twitter:
  12. I can't imagine Andreoli is gonna be a budget-buster with his limited ceiling.
  13. I don't know that I buy that he can be above average offensively... though I don't think he'll be much below average either. That said, nobody took him in the Rule 5 last year even though he was unprotected, so I have to imagine that other teams don't think too highly of his bat either.
  14. No reason to believe that he won't. http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100828054703/uncyclopedia/images/b/b5/Exploding-head.gif Are we still on this or had you just been spending a few hours looking for the ideal gif? Johnson has been a very solid bench player all year, and yes, I have no reason to think that he'll just suddenly fall off a cliff, assuming he remains in the same role he has been in. Saying there's no reason to believe that he won't is far from guaranteeing that he will. His BABIP is .409. Neither he, nor any other player in baseball can sustain that. Therefore, you do have reason to think he can't keep it up.
  15. 2.11 GO-AO this season. 2.47 last year. Lefty groundball pitchers... that's not a huge list. Paul Maholm and John Lannan are probably the best comps... maybe Jonathan Niese if things go very well. If everything goes absolutely perfectly for him, maybe Ricky Romero or Jaime Garcia. Of that group, only Romero's average fastball is higher than about 90.5.
  16. I was under the impression Rusin was a pretty heavy groundball pitcher, which would make him a bit more intriguing for me than otherwise. I could be mistaken on that one though. Anybody feel a Paul Maholm comp is off the mark?
  17. Todd Walker, Michael Barrett and Mark DeRosa were all better players than Reed Johnson. DeRosa, yes, but he brought two other guys as well. Beyond that, you're splitting hairs. I get Johnson's BABIP is high, but the guy is having a great year, can play all 3 OF positions, and is cheap. Guys like that have value to contenders. Walker are Barrett had been legitimate starting caliber players for contending teams in previous years. Now they were both obviously on the downslopes of their careers, but there's still some degree of upside to guys who have shown more in the past (remember our Jim Edmonds acquisition?). Reed Johnson has never been perceived as a starting caliber player. Again, I'm not saying I don't see the value in Reed Johnson. I absolutely do see it. I just see that utility guys and 4th outfielders bring back less in trades than guys teams are planning to plug in as the starter.
  18. Todd Walker, Michael Barrett and Mark DeRosa were all better players than Reed Johnson.
  19. Are you just assuming the acquiring teams will ignore every other year of his career when evaluating him? I'm not suggesting that we're going to get Domonic Brown or Jesus Montero for him just that he's a very cheap 2 month rental for a team looking for a solid bat off the bench. it's 2 months and he'd be coming off the bench. you don't get "solid young high upside prospects" for that. Bingo. I'd love to trade Reed and think other teams should be legitimately interested in him. But I'd be shocked if we got much more than an Evan Crawford type for him... a mildly intriguing prospect with significant holes is a pretty reasonable price.
  20. I saw an episode of The Shield with a similar situation, though it was a shipping container on the outskirts of town.
  21. there is? he's 4th all time in defensive WAR, and in the top 100 for WAR for position players. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1012186&playerid3=1013157&playerid4=335&playerid5= If you don't believe Trammell and Larkin belong in the Hall (and plenty don't), it's pretty easy to make the case Ozzie doesn't either... especially if you want to cast doubt on defensive metrics in general. Like I said, I'm a big hall guy and would have all of them in there. But there's a case.
  22. I don't have a problem with him being in the Hall of Fame (I'm a big Hall guy, personally), but there is a legitimate argument to be made that Ozzie Smith doesn't belong in the Hall. And Lindstrom doesn't exactly stand up to the Hall of Fame 3B standard... though I would certainly agree that standard is way higher than it should be.
  23. The Meche deal doesn't look so bad now.
  24. That's certainly possible. But somebody should have been. Why? He's a platoon player with chronic back problems who isn't very good defensively anymore. Didn't say teams should be falling over themselves to acquire him. But he's a nice complementary piece. Hits lefties well and is fine defensively in the corners as well as able to handle CF (though to what degree is debatable). There are guys like that all over baseball. I mean, I get your point, but the likely reality is that nobody wanted him vs. the Cubs not trying to trade him. Someone like Baker I get because he's back next year. Johnson doesn't fit into the Cubs' plans at all, so I'm sure they would have been happy to give him up if anyone was offering anything. $5 says if Hendry is back next year, so is Reed Johnson. Something tells me somebody was willing to offer something small, but Hendry didn't want to trade him for that little since it might hurt his chances of bringing him back next year.
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