I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano. If I had to bet on who would have a better season next year, it'd be Zambrano, but not by a landslide or anything. Zambrano's got a 4.5ish FIP, is on the wrong side of 30 and has almost 2,000 innings on his arm. The peripherals this season point to long-term problems. Okay, maybe Coleman is a bad example, but it shouldn't be that hard to find pitchers capable of doing what Zambrano's been doing. I've been saying this for a while now, but Z is one of those guys who kinda falls into a bunch of cracks in modern statistical evaluations. FIP undersells him in large part because it assumes all pitchers have equal skill when it comes to controlling the running game. Normally that's an assumption that wont make a huge difference, but Z definitely belongs at the extreme end of the spectrum, as many pickoffs as he gets and as few stolen bases as he allows. FIP also by its very definition assumes all fielders are the same... so a pitchers own defensive value isn't reflected in FIP. I'd peg Z as above average in that regard as well. So there's a couple factors artificially inflating his FIP... is it going to make a huge difference? No, probably not. But can it add up to a quarter or a third of a run? Sure it can. And then there's his bat to reconcile. His batting prowess doesn't show up in FIP or WAR or anywhere people would typically look. But I don't think anybody is going to question that he's an extremely good hitter for a pitcher... contributing probably somewhere in the realm of an extra 5 runs per year with the bat. That's roughly equal to slicing another quarter or third of a point off of his FIP. Even after all of that, is he an ace? No. He's not anymore. But he's a pretty equivalent package to a pitcher who is average at hitting, fielding, and controlling the running game while posting an ERA or FIP in the mid to high 3's. Would anybody be this eager to trash and unload a guy if Ryan Dempster had a bad attitude?