NSBB is convinced that the Cubs have all the leverage, SOSH is convinced that the Red Sox have all of it. As of writing this very sentence, I honestly don't know where I stand on the issue. But I'm tired of wondering and figure my only real chance to figure it out is to consolidate the bargaining positions of each club. So I'm going to examine what each team has to gain and lose from a potential deal... as well as what they stand to gain and lose from this deal falling through. The Red Sox What the Red Sox stand to gain from dealing Theo Epstein: Money - Both from the Cubs and from getting out from under Theo's contract. I've seen differing reports on the contract, but most of them seem to agree that it will cost the Red Sox between $6mil and $7mil to keep Theo around between his salary and his conclusion bonus. Many Red Sox fans are willing to write this off, but I'm sure the Red Sox aren't. I'll touch on why in the next bullet point. Prospects - Both from the Cubs and from the $6mil to $7mil the Red Sox just freed up in their budget. That's enough for some huge overslots in the draft (enough to get better prospects than the Cubs can possibly offer). Employee morale & image - An employee was allowed to change organizations to pursue a promotion, Cherington gets promoted from within, and all is well. What the Red Sox stand to lose from dealing Theo Epstein: Theo Epstein himself - It sucks for them, but he's gone regardless after this season. Relationships were already strained enough he was willing to leave. Taking away the biggest payday of his life wont help matters. What the Red Sox stand to gain from this deal falling through: Theo Epstein - Just for one extra year What the Red Sox stand to lose from this deal falling through: Money - Both from the Cubs and honoring Theo's contract Prospects - Both from the Cubs and not having the leftover money from Theo's contract. Employee morale & image - Theo is around as a lame duck. Best case for the Red Sox, his contract allows him to be put aside twiddling this thumbs somewhere while Cherington takes over as GM. Worst case, he has to be retained as GM and the Red Sox run the risk of Cherington leaving for a GM job elsewhere at his first opportunity. Also, this course of action hurts hiring of potential young executives. The Cubs What the Cubs stand to gain from trading for Theo Epstein: Theo Epstein - Obviously their #1 choice. Public Relations - This move should help sell some tickets. What the Cubs stand to lose from trading for Theo Epstein: Money - And loads of it, at that. Prospects - Whoever in the system the Red Sox are demanding. Randy Bush - Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha What the Cubs stand to gain from this deal falling through: Money - More than enough to hire whoever else they'd like to have. Rick Hahn, Josh Byrnes, etc... Prospects - Keep the guys the Red Sox want. Plus, there's leftover money that would have gone to Epstein's contract and could be spent on prospects What the Cubs stand to lose from this deal falling through: Theo Epstein - Or more accurately, the gap from a Theo Epstein to a Rick Hahn type. For at most one year until Theo becomes available again. Public Relations - Not getting Theo would bite the Cubs in the ass a bit in the press, unless the Cubs made a bigger move (in terms of moves the public cares about) such as signing one of Pujols/Fielder, or bringing in Ryno as manager. Conclusion: Yeah, I don't even know why I had to bother typing that all out to see it. NSBB wins. Cubs have the leverage. There's a legit argument that the Cubs are better off if the deal falls through and they use the money on Rick Hahn and prospects. But the Red Sox take a hit if the deal falls through and there's no debating it. The inner Cubs fan in me that was freaking out about this is now much more calm. Anything more than a couple token minor league prospects or cash should only be available if Theo can bring guys over with him.