Actually reading through this, I think it was a little more complex than "knows Hou will score". It would be dumb just to concede a score. But you do want to use your TOs in succession to stop after 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down. At 2 and 1 you give them the 1st and 10 and try to get 3 stops with 3 successive TOs. The 5 yards therefor is what might analytically be worth the extra time, with the expected point change being minimal I assume. It would have to be 2nd and 4th or less to make this a potentially desirable move I think. This game was a few tv's down from the game I was watching, but I was a bit blown away with how it ended, and I didn't even know about the purposeful 12th man on the field penalty. It was actually after that penalty that things got weird for me. The score was 30-29, Houston. Houston got into the endzone to make it a 7 point game. Instead of kicking the extra point, they went for 2. I'm thinking to myself, an 8 point lead is a guarantee of no worse than a tie with no time left. Why in the world are they going for two here? They don't make it, of course. Tennessee marches down the field and gets the TD and kicks the extra point to send it to overtime and then on to victory. An interim coach trying to go up 9 instead of a cozy 8 point lead which in turn loses you the game. Ouch. I mean, I get that the Titans have Derrick Henry and trying to keep him from running 2 yards is hard, but it only takes one goal line stand.