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Everything posted by BigbadB
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I'm in total agreement with this. I wouldn't have a problem with Neifi one bit if he hit .280 in the 7th or 8th spot all year. That's where you hide guys who have bad OBP's. In reality, a guy with a decent AVG, but horrible OBP is better suited hitting behind the production guys, because he can turn those hits into RBI's. Unfortunately, it's Dusty Baker who put Neifi at the top of the line up, and it's decisions like that that will force Cub fans to watch other teams play in October. Neifi is a quality back up. He's done an alright job filling in for injured players. But, at no time should he have ever been considered for top of the order duties. That falls on the manager. I think a lot of the hatred for Neifi has a whole lot more to do with how Baker used Neifi than what Neifi has done with a bat. Neifi is what Neifi is. To the person who suggests that Neifi should have made some sort of adjustment when put in a top of the order spot, it's not that simple. He's never been a guy who had plate patience or good pitch selection. You can't change that. This team just doesn't grasp the concept of the importance of OBP at the top of the order. And they are sitting at home in October partially because of just that. Derrek Lee is having an incredible offensive year, yet he still has not surpassed the 100 RBI plateau. To give you an idea what Lee might have done with a couple of decent OBP guys at the top of the order, look at what Manny Ramirez has done this year: .280 AVG compared to Lee's .341. That's a 61 point swing in AVG. 64 XBH's to Lee's 88 XBH's. That's 24 more XBH's. Manny has 135 hits in 132 games compared to Lee's 180 hits in 139 games. Manny has 120 RBI's and Lee still hasn't broken 100. Now, how can this be? The Cubs OBP from the lead off spot this year is .300. That's not the AVG, that's the OBP. The OBP for the #2 hitter this year is .321. The Red Sox lead off hitters are getting on base at a .360 clip. The #2 hitters are at a .359 OBP. That's why Manny Ramirez has 21 more RBI's than Derrek Lee. Even though Manny is hitting .280, has less at bats and less XBH's. Between the #1 and #2 hitters, the Red Sox have scored 219 times (lead off 113 times and #2 hitter 106 times). The Cubs lead off hitter has crossed the plate 77 times. The Cubs #2 hitter has crossed the plate 79 times. That, my friends, is PATHETIC!! OBP is not the be all-end all stat. But, at the top of the order it sure is. If Derrek Lee had good OBP guys in front of him all year like Manny has, he would be approaching the RBI record. And that boost in RBI's from the #3 hitter alone would have meant a lot more Cub wins. Give the #4 hitter more RBI opportunities and that also would have provided even more wins. This horrible season is all on Dusty.
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I believe there were concerns about one of his knees at the time he was a free agent. He was just coming off a season in which his stolen base percentage dipped hard. If there was concern about his knee and his speed, I suppose there also could have been some concern about a drop off in OBP as well.
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36-30 is the equivilent of close to 15 games over .500 over the course of a full season. Would 89 wins be enough to win a wild card? 89-73. Maybe, maybe not. But, they sure would have been in the race.
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What I see with this stat is that getting +3.5 pitches per plate appearance gets the starting pitcher out of the game earlier, which also brings the bullpen in earlier. The other aspect of increasing the amount of pitches per at bat is that for each extra pitch thrown by the pitcher, chances are good that the hitter will see a better one to hit.
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9-7 Cubs/Cardinals game. Mulder goes the distance, throwing 96 pitches and facing 34 hitters. Cubs pitchers (Maddux, Wuertz, Novoa, Dempster) go 9 innings and throw 144 pitches, facing 38 hitters. Cardinal hitters see 3.7 pitches per plate appearance. Cubs hitters see 2.8 pitches per plate appearance. Cubs won this game, but I think this information says a lot about where each team sits in the win column. Cubs starters can't get through 6 innings typically. The Cardinals starter breezes through the whole game and gets the bullpen plenty of rest.
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Colorado would probably be a good fit. They will be out of just about every bad contract by then, and could afford to throw a few million at Sosa. They have some talent in a semi talentless division.
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9/5 Cubs (Prior) @ Cardinals (Suppan) 1:15pm WGN
BigbadB replied to mhuber92211's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
D. Eckstein ss A. Nunez 3b A. Pujols 1b J. Edmonds cf L. Walker rf M. Grudzielanek 2b J. Rodriguez lf E. Diaz c J. Suppan p There is a reason that line-up wasn't posted. Most people here don't care about the Cardinals. He cares, so he decided to post it, and I reckon that the several card fans who stop by these threads during Cubs/Cards games care too. Take it easy. The key word in my post being: MOST So some people care, and he does, no need to try and instigate something or just antagonize the guy. I will continue to express myself the way I see it. My opinion is just that, if you don't like it, put me on ignore. If it is your intention to just be a nuisance here, then we have a much nicer feature a little more powerful than ignore. -
Bellhorn did have a decent slugging percentage in those odd years. But, in grading his value, I see a guy who has a high OBP, but doesn't typically hit for great power or high batting average. If his greatest single asset is his ability to get on base at a .380 clip, and usually via the base on balls, then ideally he should be at the top of the order. His bad batting average makes driving in runs a weakness. Hitting 6th or lower in the line up should be a "good" BA/SLG moreso than a "good" OBP. The good BA/SLG will drive in your more productive hitters than drawing a base on balls. Also, the hitters below him aren't going to drive him in nearly as much because they are typically the worst hitters on the team. In my opinion, he was used improperly. And honestly, In Boston, they had better options, so he was expendable. But, I can't help wondering what Bellhorn's OBP could have done in the #2 spot in the order in 2003 when Alex Gonzalez was getting all those at bats there. The fact a manager would use Alex Gonzalez and his .311 OBP in one of the top spots in the order over someone who features a .375+ OBP is, IMO, a problem in and of itself. This is a team that has continued to struggle scoring runs. Gonzalez had a history of being a poor top of the order hitter before he ever arrived in Chicago. And Gonzalez isn't the only poor OBP guy Dusty has inserted at the top of the order. All in all, this team/management has had a problem understanding the importance of getting good OBP guys at the top of the order on base for the likes of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou. Sammy Sosa either has or is nearing the record for most solo home runs. This isn't because Sammy couldn't hit with runners on base. It's because the Cubs run horrible options out there at the top of the order day in and day out. OBP isn't the be all-end all of baseball statistics, but to me it's the most important one when it comes to the top of the batting order.
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He was better than Lenny freaking Harris. They both sucked. Belhorn finished 2003 with a .646 OPS playing half the year in Colorado. Everyone's favorite whipping boy (Corey) is at .626 (just as bad) this year, and Neifi is at .702. Point being it wasn't Dusty's fault - Belhorn played until he became a liability and was gone. Harris was on the roster and given first chance to replace Belhorn. He failed also, hence Ramirez. What would happen if you put Juan Pierre in the clean up spot? Would you all of a sudden expect him to become a power hitter and sit back and watch his SLG approach that of other clean up hitters? Or would you call this experiment a complete failure because you can't change Juan Pierre's penchant to be a slap hitter. If you agree with the above that it would be ridiculous to put Juan Pierre in the clean up spot, then why does everyone that bashes Mark Bellhorn's style of play bash him when it was clearly obvious that he wasn't used properly in 2003 as a Cub. Now, I'm not going to state that he is the greatest baseball player of all time, but he certainly proved he had value to this game if used properly. His resume' is all about plate patience and OBP. In 2002, as a Cub, Bellhorn's asset was recognized as a lead off hitter. Only about half way through the season, but it was finally recognized. And as a lead off hitter, he scored runs at an incredible pace. In 1/3 of a season's worth of plate appearances, he scored 48 runs. Isn't that a nice ratio for a lead off hitter? How many times did Dusty Baker put Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order in 2003? 8 times. How many times did Bellhorn bat 7th where good OBP is wasted? 126 times. Tom Goodwin got 109 lead off at bats that year and provided a .318 OBP in that spot. How many times did Dusty Baker put Mark Bellhorn in the #2 spot in the order in 2003? 0 times. How many at bats did Alex Gonzalez get in the #2 spot in 2003? 332 times and sported a .311 OBP. In 2004, the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox put Bellhorn at the top of the order when Bill Mueller went down with an injury, and Bellhorn provided a very fruitful OBP and runs scored ratio when given the assignment at the top of the order. Is it a fluke that Bellhorn stunk it up in 2003, or was he used improperly given his above mentioned talents? Boston found others this year to put at the top of the order and Bellhorn found himself without a job once again, because he does stink when put in RBI positions in the batting order. Dusty doesn't and hasn't comprehended the importance of OBP at the top of the order. During his tenure, we have seen Alex Gonzalez, Tom Goodwin, Lenny Harris, Neifi Perez, Corey Patterson, Rey Ordonez, Damian Jackson and many other poor OBP guys at the top of the order. Yet, Bellhorn was converted by Dusty into a bottom of the line up RBI guy while Alex Gonzalez struck out time and again in front of our RBI guys. I'm not forcing anyone to like Mark Bellhorn. But, you can't blame Bellhorn for his placement in the line up or the missed opportunity to continue doing at the top of the order what he did in 2002 and 2004. Taking a lead off hitter out of his element and asking for results at something he has never been good at is really no different than taking David Eckstein and putting him in the bullpen and expecting results. Now, we got Aramis Ramirez in 2003, so I'm cool. But, Bellhorn was not given the opportunity in 2003 to do what he did in 2002, and in the meantime, we had the horrible OBP Alex Gonzalez hitting up there instead, so I refuse to say Bellhorn sucked. We don't know what he might have meant to this team in 2003 if used in 2003 like he was used in 2002 and 2004. Dusty's resistance to put good OBP guys at the top of the order is why this team suffers more than it really needs to. Go through the splits since he arrived in Chicago and see how many times horrible OBP guys got top of the order at bats. It's disgusting. This year, while Bellhorn is being let go by teams, he's had a total of 28 at bats at the top of the order. Maybe I'm twisting stats to my liking, but it's the way I see it.
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Stop bashing Maddux
BigbadB replied to AC036198's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Glendon Rusch can post a 4.47 ERA for a lot less money. -
End is Near for Bellhorn
BigbadB replied to MembersOnlyJacket's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It wasn't hard to root for Horny on the Red Sox, but it will be impossible to do so with the Yankees. I agree. -
We will be back on August 29th. Lindsay will be here August 17-19. The league office will be closed on August 20-29. Good luck to all of our Las Vegas teams. If anyone is coming out to Nationals to play in mini tournaments, all you need is a driver's license and your membership card. If you do not have your membership card, you can get a replacement card at the National event. You must have a minimum of 10 lifetime APA matches in the format you wish to compete in mini tournaments. The event takes place at the Riviera Hotel and Casino.
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That's not a very nice thing to say about Truffle. :D No doubt about it, Truffle's in decline. Although you could see it coming a mile away with his posting peripherals. :wink: But, the beauty of it is that it makes Truffle fit right in. The Cubs have a long history of signing people on the decline. :wink:
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That's not a very nice thing to say about Truffle. :D
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The Paradox that is Aramis Ramirez
BigbadB replied to The Voice of Reason's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
There's playing through pain, but there's also poor judgment or laziness when you stand there and watch a ball land in fair territory, turning a potential double into a single. Aramis is my favorite Cub player, but he does have a laziness about him that frustrates me at times. -
I think there will be a lot of team interested in his services. The 600 HR plateau is one that could fill seats by itself. I think there are a lot of teams that would take the chance that he could put together another decent productive season. Pittsburgh, Colorado, Washington are some of the teams that come to mind in the NL. I don't see Sammy giving up yet. His ego is too huge to think his career is over. I haven't paid any attention to what he's doing in Baltimore. It's possible that if he made some adjustments at the plate that he might be able to improve his offensive production.
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As stated, it is MY opinion that the Cubs have a more talented team than the A's. Yes, I am also taking into consideration expected level of production if healthy. I will also state that it is my opinion that the Cubs teams of '03 and '04 had more talent than the Oakland teams. It doesn't make my opinion right, but it is my opinion. If we are grading each team based on everything (including coaching and execution), then Oakland does have the better team, by far. Oakland has met or exceeded their expected finish each of the last 3 years. The Cubs, on the other hand, have failed miserably in the last 2 years to meet expectations. In terms of talent, I believe the Cubs had a better team on paper going into each of the last 3 respective seasons.
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How are the Cubs a better team then the Oakland A's? Especially if we look at the last 3 years? The A's play in the toughest division in the game and the Cubs have several doormats in their division. In terms of talent, IMO, I think the Cubs are a better team than the Oakland A's. I probably should have been a little more specific in that regard. In terms of talent (as well as everyone being healthy), I don't think there are many teams period that stack up against the Cubs in talent.
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Everyone on both sides of the Mississippi knows Remlinger is horrible against lefties. Everyone except Dusty Baker anyway.
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In the last 3 years, Oakland has put together spurts of 37-8 at one point during their season. We are a better team than Oakland. Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? Doubtful with Dusty filling out the line up card.
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Barry Rozner wonders does Dusty want to be fired?
BigbadB replied to vance_the_cubs_fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Very well put. -
It's funny he mentions the runner scoring from 1st on a single. I thought it was funny too. Jose Macias can play every position, but that's not to say he can play them well. And if that wasn't enough, it happens on ESPN in front of the entire world. [-( Nice call Dusty!
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Okay, I forgot. Who did the Pirates trade to get Stewart? I don't believe he was in the Giles trade. Stewart was one of the better San Diego pitching prospects at the time of the trade.
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Imagine how bad their OBP's would look if you deducted the extra out each time they hit into a double play.

