BigbadB

But the cost of Williams and maybe others to upgrade to Soriano isn't worth the upgrade. So who do you want batting 5th? With the team we have now, I'd probably put Murton or Jones in the 5th spot, leaning heavily towards Murton. Jones could show an increase in SLG playing in the NL Central, but that's quite a gamble that Hendry was taking. He's mostly a ground ball hitter.

Washington is rumored to want Josh Beckett from Boston for Soriano. Of course, you have to take a rumor with a grain of salt, but would the difference between Walker and his 2.5m salary and Soriano at close to 10m plus the quality player or two it would cost to get him really be worth it? Personally, I don't think so. This offseason has really been a nightmare in regards to improving the team. Some Hendry's doing, some because the market was so barren. At this juncture, I'd really just like to see Hendry hold out for something to fall in his lap or just go to battle with what we have and hope a team will be willing to give up something decent at the deadline. The biggest problem I have with giving up a lot for Soriano is that we had a comparable player in Nomar that wouldn't have costed any prospects and would have been much cheaper. The only concern would have been injury, which is a legitimate concern. We didn't want a poor fielding shortstop, but now we want a poor fielding 2nd baseman. And what will be the cost? If there was a choice of Vidro or Soriano, I'd prefer Vidro. He's locked in beyond this coming year, which helps with the potential turnover next year will again be hard to replace. I also lean towards Vidro due to the signing of Jones. Jones is a very poor hitter in general, and Vidro can make up for Jones' inadequacies. Not only would Vidro make for a very good #2 hitter, which the team lacks, but he can also play some 3rd base. Next year could feature a huge turnover. If the Cubs traded for Soriano, there is the potential of Maddux, Wood, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez and Pierre all hitting the road. Some of these guys might see greener pastures by testing the market. At this point, I'd lean towards just keeping Walker. Trading for Vidro would be my 2nd choice.

Ryno shared his wife with Cub teammates. Can Sammy beat that? :D

Walks anywhere in the line up are good. But, I probably value AVG and SLG a bit more than OBP in the 5 and 6 spots in the order. For example, Nomar was ideal in the 5 or 6 spots last year (assuming he was healthy). His high AVG and decent SLG driving in the 2-3-4 hitters provides more value than drawing a walk for the weaker hitters in the line up. Nomar good OBP derives more from AVG than OBP. Soriano would be a good 6th hitter in a line up that featured good OBP in front of him. A few problems I have with this though. Dusty sees Soriano's speed as a plus at the top of the order, and the fact Soriano doesn't have a good OBP, nor does Jacque Jones and possibly one of Cedeno or Perez starting everyday is another possibility of an mediocre or poor OBP makes the line up weak in regards to OBP. Couple that in with a start every 4th and or 5th day by Blanco along with a possible slight regression from Barrett and Derrek Lee regressing to just above career norms and you have the recipe for disaster.

What I'm curious about is how low he'd actually be willing to go on a contract.

So what if those guys were overrated here. What's your point? No one here knows what their talking about? Should we "hope" all the Cubs prospects suck? As overrated as they might have been, Choi turned into Derrek Lee, Bobby Hill turned into Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton, Brendan Harris turned into Nomar and Juan Cruz turned into the infamous Andy Pratt. Tell me how that's not a good thing? Indulge me rather than insult me. Thanks in advance.

And I can respect your opinion. However, I don't see it that way. Hendry basically said Dubois was his starting LFer for 2005. Didn't happen. Hollandsworth was brought back to be the pinch hit extraordinaire that he was in 2004. Didn't happen. Dubois got 7 starts in April. He finished April with a .346 AVG. In the first 8 games in May, he got 5 at bats total. After that long layoff, all of a sudden, Dusty gave Dubois the everyday job. 31 at bats total over the first 31 games of the season, then blam, thrust into the starting job. Meanwhile, Hollandsworth was about as horrible as it gets as an everyday LFer. Granted, Dubois didn't amount to anything, but Dusty gave Hollandsworth and his .211 AVG all the playing time over a guy hitting .346 and having a hot month. The first time Murton has an 0fer, we should all be very scared.

Murton: .785 Pierre: .730 lifetime Jones: .782 lifetime Hmm. And we want to get rid of Walker and his .829 OPS last year? Derrek Lee will absolutely need to duplicate his 2005 season, especially if Ramirez misses any time.

It is a contract year for Pierre, so this coming year is as good as any for him to produce at his highest potential. He has a whole lot to lose if he has another year like last year.

Come on, please be reasonable here. It makes no sense to over expose Grissom by having him start over Murton or platoon with him. Even Dusty knows Murton hits well against LHP (I would be concerned if Marquis was lefthanded). Logic dictates that he will split time with Jones I missed this one while I was out working in the garage. Reasonable is thinking that Grissom would play in place of Murton long before he plays in place of Jones when Dusty is the manager. Last year when Murton got called up, he got very little playing time if any. The Cubs used Hollandsworth, Dubois until that proved inadequate. They used Hairston and Gerut while Murton was available. They traded for Lawton while Murton was outproducing all of them. Only once the season was basically over for Cubs playoff chances did Murton get any significant playing time. Jones makes big money. Dusty doesn't sit the big money guys. Same thing with Cedeno. When Cedeno was the best available option while Nomar and Walker were out, Enrique Wilson was brought in and Cedeno was sent down. I watch this team daily too. I've lost a lot of faith in Dusty doing the right thing. Dusty is also the same guy who made the comment that light skinned players can't handle playing most of their games in the hot daytime sun like dark skinned players, so who sits on back to back hot days in the sun? Jones or Murton? Maybe Dusty will prove me wrong. But, until he does, I have every reason to be extremely skeptical at this point.

In the 24 games the Cubs had Lawton, he sat out of 5 of them. In those same 24 games Lawton was with the Cubs, Murton got 5 starts. In the next 12 games after Lawton was traded to the Yankees, Hairston took over in left for a bulk of the playing time. Murton got 14 at bats in those 12 games.

You say Lawton was brought in to address the OBP problem, but if he replaced Murton, he really didn't address an OBP problem, he addressed a rookie problem.

It's okay to think whatever you want. This is a discussion board. No one knows for sure about anything, but half the fun is discussing or debating what would be better. As long as it stays respectful, people shouldn't have to feel like they are being ganged up on. I really don't care if no one agrees with my opinions, but I'm going to give them anyway. It only feels like you are getting ganged up on if your opinion differs from the majority. I've also seen opinions change (including my own) when enough information is provided that makes sense, was well presented and/or educated me more on a topic I didn't really know that much about. CubfaninCa battles with many people here everyday. I think I go to battle with him myself, everyday. I don't have any ill feelings towards him or his opinion, I just don't agree with him very often. Doesn't mean my opinion is right and his is wrong, they just differ. If someone is disrespectful of you and your opinion, PM a mod and we will address it right away. If we didn't have differing opinions on anything, this place would be very boring.

Can't this same argument be made for why they traded for Lawton in the first place? Can't this same argument be applied to the fact that when Nomar and Walker were hurt, Cedeno got sent back to the minors so the Cubs could play Enrique Wilson everyday in his place?

If Murton provided a whole season's worth of stats like he did last year, then we could feel much more comfortable with him as an everyday LFer. Murton would be a great 4th outfielder this year, but not a great platoon partner, because there just aren't many lefty starters in the league. I wouldn't want to see him playing 1/4 of the year and pinch hitting occasionally. I'd like him to get lots of playing time. I do agree with you that Hendry is still shopping for 1 more outfielder. It may end up being Floyd if the Manny thing goes down with the Mets. It may end up being Huff when teams forget Tampa is still trying to move him. It may end up being Gonzalez, but that one is definitely not one of my favorites. Green works for me, but he likely won't void his NTC. It also seems to me that Hendry has some players he still wants to move (Patterson and Walker), and some guys that may need to be moved (Novoa, Ohman and/or Wellemeyer). Jones may have ended up being more of an insurance move, though I wouldn't think you would normally see a team spend 3 years for insurance. Then again, they basically resigned Neifi and Rusch at 2 years each for insurance purposes. If Hendry could land Tejada, the need for another outfielder wouldn't be as necessary, but I'd still believe he'd attempt to bring someone, anyone for a little more outfield protection. And preferably someone better than Marquis Grissom.

I understand that it is based upon numbers and that numbers are color blind. But, true or false, sabermetrics favors or values certain qualities or numbers or stats over others, doesn't it? Not too big on stealing bases but big on walks, for example. My point is is there a possibility that given what it values or on which it places positive emphasis and given what it does not value sabermetrics obviously favors a "type" of player, at least to some extent. All I have been asking is whether or not that "type" is more likely than not to be a white player. I would say no, based on my previous response. For every white player that was a picture perfect model of what a sabermetric player should be, there is a black guy and a latino guy and probably a japanese guy who you can find that compares to that white player.

Grissom ranks right at the top in 1 offensive category. He ranks 2nd in most painful batting stance to watch, right behind Craig Counsell. Some of you have a lot more faith in Dusty than I do if you believe Dusty will sit Jacque Jones and his 5m contract in favor of Marquis Grissom when a lefty is on the mound, meanwhile letting league minimum Matt Murton play everyday. I don't see it. Oh, and just to touch base on the thought process of batting Jacque Jones 2nd in the order. Here are his splits over the last 3 years as a #2 hitter: Jacque Jones as a #2 hitter over the last 3 years: .225/.299/.649 in 160 at bats. :cheers:

For the record, what Rotoworld would do isn't the same as what Dusty would do.

How can you say that? He's hit 9 in his major league career of 3411 at bats. If he gets 3500 at bats in 2006, surely he has the chance to hit 10 HR's. :D :-k i'm just wondering how he got those 9 in the first place. I wonder how many of them are inside-the-park "blasts".

How can you say that? He's hit 9 in his major league career of 3411 at bats. If he gets 3500 at bats in 2006, surely he has the chance to hit 10 HR's. :D

I agree. Would I rather have Milton Bradley or Brad Wilkerson? If "attitude" were not a part of the equation, I'd take Bradley over Wilkerson. Would I rather have Giles or Abreu? Abreu because of the age disparity. For every sabermetric superstar or non superstar, I think you can find a comparable player that's either caucasion, black or latino or any other race that gets added to the equation. Some of the best pure hitters in the game have been black. The greatest player in Saber history has to be Barry Bonds. Bar none. But, pete the dog brings up a very good point with latin players in the fact that they aren't going to "walk" their way off the island. Getting back to Brad Wilkerson, the 3 players that Wilkerson has closely resembled by age happen to be Paul O'Neill, Jeffrey Hammonds and Ivan Calderon. A caucasion, a black and a latin player. Brian Giles has most closely resembled by age Mark Quinn (white), Moises Alou (latin), Bob Johnson (?), Pedro Guerrero (latin), David Justice (black) and Hack Wilson (white). You can use baseball-reference to do these comparisons with a lot of players and get the same results. Sabermetrics weighs a lot of stats that aren't conventional, and I'm nowhere close to having any scientific background, but I fail to see any significance in regards to race in any way.

Well done! Pete The Dog + Davis, CA = Vet School? Just curious.

Fair enough. That is something we can agree on. If anything, I'd like to see another arm added. But, Pie or Hill for Zito doesn't make sense unless Zito's contract is extended beyond 2006.

That's what I put my money. No big deal... Seriously, is there a trade, free agent signing that would upset you? I applaud your optimism, but I'm curious if there is any move that the Cubs could make that would have you join me on the ledge?

Okay, this is getting a bit carried away. Let's just get back to the discussion at hand. Thanks!