BigbadB

not even Henry Blanco? That's probably a toss up, actually. But, Blanco is slated as a back up while Theriot is being handed a starting job for some unexplained reason.

Plus Theriot brings a lot more to the table than Cedeno. 10x better plate discipline. Umm, Theriot led the team in 1 pitch outs. Which player faced more pitches per AB? Cedeno. P/PA: Cedeno: 3.68 Theriot: 3.53 Theriot is a very patient hitter, one of the only few on the Cubs. It's just when he swung at a ball, he didn't miss it often like most of the other Cubs, so his pitches per at bat were less. Seriously, are you actually saying these things? This has to be a joke. It's a failure to really understand what these numbers really say. The reason Theriot gets so many first pitch meatball pitches to swing at is because pitcher's aren't afraid of what Theriot might do to the ball when served a meatball. In fact, no other player on the Cubs does less with a meatball than Theriot.

Prepare to be shocked. Here is a list of non pitchers who grabbed a bat for the Cubs last year with a lower P/PA percentage than Theriot: Cesar Izturis Jake Fox Scott Moore Whew, that wore me out listing all those names. And just for fun, here is the list of pitcher's who had a better P/PA than Theriot: Carlos Marmol Angel Guzman Kerry Wood Sean Marshall Steve Tracshel Jason Marquis

It sounds like MacPhail (and any other GM who is in this position) is a bit frustrated that private trade discussions are not very private.

You'll be disappointed to know Jacque is a Tiger now. :D

Really? Like what?

You can always put it out there to your NSBB buddies to see if they would be interested in joining you for a weekend series somewhere.

Here are the facts: Murton is on the trade block The Cubs have other close to major league ready prospects that are blocked The Cubs are trying to improve the offense Hendry isn't afraid to trade some of these young kids if it will improve the team The Cubs have a tremendous hole at SS Hendry has shown his interest in Greene in the past The Padres are looking for LF help Khalil Greene rejected a long term deal in SD because he wants to be out east. Khalil Greene will be playing for a big contract in the next couple of years, and playing in Wrigley increases his chances of doing just that over playing in San Diego. The Padres are a small market team and prefer cheaper talent if they can get it. Hendry and Towers have worked deals in the past. Is it really that silly to discuss a potential deal between the Padres and Cubs that could potentially help both teams? Is it really that farfetched? It makes tremendous sense to at least discuss what would be necessary for each team to walk away happy with a deal. Is it likely to happen? Probably not. Should everyone at NSBB just give up on discussions that are likely not going to happen? Maybe. But, I personally enjoy discussing deals that could make this team better. Should the title be changed so as not to inconvenience a few people who don't want to read a baseball discussion? Maybe. But, lately I've only had about 30 minutes worth of time to browse the forums and that's been more than enough time to read through just about everything I want to see. And of the 30 minutes I have had time to browse, I've found it much more annoying having to filter through the "here we go with another 135 page thread" posts rather than actual "potential baseball transaction discussions", which is what this forum is for.

Is there anyone worth voting for this year? Because I'm not going to wait in line at a polling place to vote on props only. 8-[

I'm one of the biggest OBP hounds on this board. I've been screaming for improved OBP throughout the line up for years. Would I like Roberts in the line up? Yes. Very good OBP. Will I like Soriano and Roberts hitting 1/2 in the line up if the Cubs traded for Roberts? Yes. Is there a difference between Roberts/Theriot hitting 1/2 or Soriano/Theriot hitting 1/2? No. OBP is a great offensive metric. But, so is SLG. If a guy has an excellent OBP and an excellent SLG, you're talking about an excellent ballplayer. Where a guy lacks in OBP but makes up for it in SLG, you're talking about a pretty good player. Soriano is a good lead off hitter because where he lacks in OBP he makes up for it in SLG. Look at the stats. There isn't a thing Roberts does that Soriano can't do. And the only really important thing for the lead off hitter in a line up to do is SCORE RUNS. Soriano does that better than Roberts. Soriano>>>>Roberts Greene>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Theriot Khalil doesn't hit for high average and he strikes out a bit. But he's a shortstop who can kill the ball when he gets ahold of it. 74 XBH's (extra base hits) while playing more than half his games at Petco and Chavez Ravine is pretty awesome for a SS. Theriot had 35 XBH's last year. If you think 35 XBH's and a better OBP and less strike outs is truly better than 74 XBH's and a little worse OBP and more strike outs, you just go right on believing that, but you're island will be quite lonely. If you've never watched a game that is played at Petco, it's actually pretty fascinating how many times a guy crushes a ball and breaks into his home run jog, only to find out his fly ball didn't even make it to the warning track. Greene would likely hit even more home runs playing ANYWHERE else.

Defensively, he's considered one of the best. There aren't many SS's in the game today that can get the crowd freaking out over a defensive play. Greene can do that. I see a lot of Padres games, and Greene is an incredible defensive player. Greene is pretty quiet and reserved and avoids the cameras like they are a plague. But, he does let his bat do the talking. Where he lacks in OBP, he makes up in SLG. His one flaw that can hurt a ballclub is his tendency to get injured.

It would be trading from areas of depth to fill a tremendous hole. Murton will be a little used 4th outfielder, Cedeno would no longer be needed with Greene, Patterson is lost on the depth chart with Pie and Colvin, and Marshall would likely be battling Lieber, Gallagher and others for the last rotation spot. Khalil Greene on the road in 2007: .288 .322 .519 .840 Khalil Greene on the road career: .280 .335 .515 .850 Remembering that Greene plays most of his games in the toughest hitter's park in baseball and the toughest hitting division in MLB and that the NL Central is arguably the best hitter's division in baseball, the numbers Green could put up playing for the Cubs in a very solid line up all the way through could REALLY pump his numbers up. If you add Greene's bat (ignore the great defense he plays for a moment) to the Cubs line up, the Cubs have Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Greene with the potential to have .500+ SLG and Fukudome, Pie, DeRosa and Soto all with the potential of mid to high .400 SLG. Soriano, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Greene, Pie, Soto And wow, what a stellar defense the SP's would have behind them. It's a lot to give up for Greene, but none of those guys are someone who turns me off such a deal.

Nice work!

I don't know. Blanco/Hill just assures Soto gets more playing time. Let's just help Hendry see that your Greene love is real and it should not and does not have to be a long distance love affair. I'd give up Murton, Marshall, Cedeno and Patterson for Greene in a heartbeat. Peavy, Young, Wolf, Maddux and Marshall (while waiting for Prior to get healthy) gives them a very respectable rotation. Murton gives them someone to battle Hairston and Headley for the LF job and gives them bench depth. Patterson is someone who can play CF when Edmonds gets hurt. Cedeno is cheap and has potential. All of these guys are cheap enough to offset Peavy's monster contract and gets them quality return on a guy they will likely lose in FA sooner rather than later.

Be very afraid. Robles is a speedy, lefty hitting 2b. Shut up, shut up, shut up!!! *Plugs ears* I can't hear you!!!! Sorry about that. If it makes you feel better, I looked up Robles' stats and it appears he isn't so speedy afterall. Zero stolen bases at the major league level and hasn't stolen a single base in either the majors or minors since 1998. We should be safe.

I disagree. The Padres like Bard. I see Barrett being cut by the team the same way Todd Walker was cut the previous year. The Padres gambled that some other team would sign them after they offered arbitration. No team did, and the Padres will likely cut the player rather than cough up way more than they are willing to pay through arbitration. Bold prediction: Barrett will be on someone else's roster on opening day.

Be very afraid. Robles is a speedy, lefty hitting 2b.

Didn't you start working on this a few days ago? Shhh. You're distracting me.

I'm currently working on a blockbuster trade that involves every team outside of the NL Central, except the Cubs, and involves 142 players. The Cubs are going to be a very good team. It's near completion. Check back regularly and refresh often. :wink:

I'm glad I'm not Baltimore and giving up on 2008 before the season starts, but I can't blame them for holding out for as much as they can get. They can suck with Roberts and Bedard, or they can suck without them. The question becomes how bad do you want the players?

Still need more, at least Gallagher. I also don't believe the Padres would turn over Greene and replace him with a risky player like Cedeno. Teams who want to contend don't do that. All of this discussion goes back to an old thread in which I suggested a 3-way deal with the Padres and Pirates. Don't remember all the details, but basically it sent Bay and Jack Wilson to the Padres with Greene (and maybe Hairston) coming to the Cubs while Headley, Murton, Cedeno, Gallagher/Marshall went to the Pirates. Yeah I mentioned that yesterday (and credited you), I think it was in this thread. You should dig it up because I think its the only way it'll happen. My thoughts are that Jack Wilson is fairly undervalued in the market because of his defense (although Huntington probably realizes that). Greene is a great player but isn't the type of guy for his home stadium. While hes obviously a better hitter than Jack Wilson, Wilson can probably be as effective in Petco because hes not such an extreme fly ball hitter (Wilson is roughly middle of the pack, while Greene is far and away the leader for SS). Also, obviously the Padres want a corner OF and there aren't many better than Bay. In your scenario the padres would have to kick in some decent prospects. IIRC, the Padres don't have a great system, but they'd have to contribute something pretty decent. Greene for Wilson is lopsided, but Headley for Bay is way more lopsided. Huntington hasnt done much with his players and has focused more on his staff. Hes stated that the team underacheived and hes not going to sell low, but I think presented with a fair package for both players (with possibly us having to take Morris off his hands), he'd most definitely consider a rebuild of his system. So, I was thinking about a possible alternative to Bay being moved as quotes from Huntington seem to lead you to believe that he wants to hold onto him to build his value back up. How about a Bay-less 3 way (with BTBs permission, of course)? Padres get: Wilson, Murton, Patterson Cubs get: Greene and Nady Pirates get: Cedeno and Hairston Padres get an acceptable replacement for Greene who also provides good defense but has an offense thats better suited for Petco, they get the corner OF upgrade that they want, and a possible option for the future CF hole. Cubs get to move Theriot to the supersub role and replace him with a big defensive and offensive upgrade in Greene. We also get the 4th OF who can play CF to platoon with Pie. Pirates get rid of two of their bigger contracts while replacing them with similar players who will be under their control for longer and at a much cheaper rate. Cubs get Nady and Greene and Pittsburgh gets Cedeno and Hairston? Maybe if Littlefield was still the GM, but that would be a horrible move on Pittsburgh's part to trade Nady and Wilson and only get back Cedeno and Hairston.

Of course he likes Theriot. And if he likes him that much, he can turn Theriot into the super sub he so desires. Theriot can fill in for Pie in CF against a tough lefty, fill in for DeRosa at 2nd and once in a blue moon give Greene a day or rest or even fill in for Greene if he goes on the DL. The Padres won't want Theriot. They'd probably want Cedeno since he has much more upside than Theriot. I'd put together a package that rivaled or might even be better than what they offered for Roberts to get Greene. Greene is a bigger need to this team than Roberts, IMO. And the defense would get an even bigger lift than it already has with Greene shagging balls at SS.

We are definitely better with him than without him.

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count. Wrigley23, I understand the point of view that someone who does something for a living has more expertise in a given field and is privy to information that the rest of the world isn't. Working in finance, I usually take offense to people trying to beat the market on a hunch or a tip, because there are people with better models and greater resources on the other side of any trade. But I think that line of thinking doesn’t work as well in a baseball context. The difference is, with baseball, most of the information about player performance, potential and likely outcomes is readily available. Additionally, an organization's philosophy generally can be easily surmised by the public record of their player development and personnel decisions. Let’s look at a couple of public facts: (1) Jim Hendry, when questioned a couple of years ago about the team's inability to get on base, responded by claiming that getting on base was not the problem. He argued the team was towards the top of the league in batting average, completely disregarding the fact that they were near the bottom in OBP. His inference was that the problem was driving runners in scoring position in. However, the team was no worse that league average with runners in scoring position. (2) There are other GMs around the league who value advanced statistics in evaluating players. I would point to the following quote by the new GM of the pirates, Neal Huntington (not that this will make him successful, but just noting that others out there think about these things). "We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating." (3) This is a personal anecdote - On Steven Levitt's blog a few months ago, he lobbied for his grad assistant to get a job with a major league team. I went to grad school with that assistant, and he get got plenty of interest from a number of MLB teams, but noted that the Cubs front office had no interest in someone with his background. Now, given the public nature of facts like these, and the team's track record for addressing its weaknesses, it SHOULD be perfectly reasonably for me to question the judgment of the front office. In particular, this organization has always employed people with a "great baseball pedigree". Forget that Theo Epstein (again, not that he is the best GM) wouldn't fall into that bucket. Hey, people who worked in mortgage securitizations, or with rating agencies and trading desks had a great "subprime pedigree". That doesn't mean that the people who noted the housing market was way out of whack, even though they didn’t work in it, had no basis for judgment. But with baseball, the information is far more transparent. It is totally reasonable for people to question the approach of an entrenched management regime. Hedge funds do it as activist shareholders. Lawyers do it with malpractice suits against physicians. As other posters have said, just because someone is in a position to make decisions, it doesn’t mean that their decisions shouldn't be questioned. Especially when we have access to a lot of the same information they do. It is a question of philosophy and judgment, not of information. On a somewhat unrelated note, has anyone seen stats for league-wide OPS for batters with a runner on base with 30+ steals the previous season? I haven't seen the numbers to refute/support whether speed on base disrupts a pitcher, and I am stubbornly holding on to the fact that it does until I see otherwise. (sorry to derail the thread) Very nice post. But, it will likely fall on deaf ears. I have attempted to explain to Wrigley23 several times that Soriano leading off does not hurt this team one bit. I have gone so far as to challenge that even if the Cubs got Roberts in a trade, that there is a very strong likelihood that Soriano still bats first and Roberts bats second. And I would be perfectly fine with that. A good lead off hitter scores runs. A good lead off hitter doesn't just hit singles and steal bases. He puts himself in a position to score runs, period. Soriano does that with the best of the best lead off hitters in the game. Where Soriano lacks in OBP skills, he makes up for it in SLG skills. If the Cubs had both Soriano and Roberts, they would have arguably the best 1/2 punch in the game today. I challenge Steve Stone to prove to me why Soriano isn't a lead off hitter. Go to ESPN, click on stats, click on all MLB hitters, click on the lead off hitter filter and look at the top lead off hitters in 2007. Soriano hangs with the best of them. Whether he's worth 130m+ is certainly arguable, but the production he provides in the lead off spot is worth its weight in gold. Especially when comparing him to a few of the past lead off hitters this team has had, like Juan Pierre and Corey Patterson.

AP says $15.5 mil. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cardinals-molina&prov=ap&type=lgns What? More than Izturis? That's maddening!