2 and 3 That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively. I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average. Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination. Well, if we go by OPS, then, yes there were only 2 good months. Given that no one attributes any value to his power contributions, should we really throw out the .407 and .384 OBPs in his next 2 lowest OPS months, even given the lack of XBH? I understand the belief that Adam Dunn is the archetype of the modern hitter (correctly so, in many ways), but Theriot has had no lower than a .325 BABIP in any month before this one. Is there no accounting for the rare player who can get a hit without (much) speed and without power? Usually the high BABIP is reserved for the player with good power who has a high LD%. Doesn't seem to hold in this case. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, but is it possible that this style of hitting doesn't fall into the accepted metrics in terms of predictive usefulness? I ask this as a point of curiosity to those closer to the more advanced metrics. I find the regression to the mean explanation a tired one, no pun intended. I have personally come to believe that the value of OBP is understated by most formulas - particularly in a team concept. Theriot's value is in his obp and there is definitely value in that so I agree that looking at his monthly ops is not particularly reflective. What is concerning about Theriot is that when his luck falls off, he is completely worthless. I don't think he can ever draw many walks simply because pitchers have no fear of his power (see Kosuke Fukodome who I suspect is falling the same problem as part of his overall decline). In short, Theriot has to maintain his LD% and have a corresponding BABIP to be useful. Given his suspect defense and baserunning, I am skeptical of his long-term value. That being said, he is the SS on the best defensive team in the NL so perhaps his defensive liabilities are overstated. The Cubs cannot afford plays like his boot of the third out before the Glaus homerun in the playoffs but I'm not sure its fair to cherrypick plays like that. I agree, OPS wildly understates OBP, which is why I used wOBA to value him, not OPS. Even with wOBA, his complete and utter lack of power renders him a below average player in those months. OBP is great and greater than most people believe, but its not everything.