nilodnayr

Looks like it's possible that it's what Rosenthal think the Cubs should do. Rosenthal's the best when it comes to breaking stories, but he's still a national media presence, so he's still an idiot when it comes to knowing what makes a good player. I don't know that he's necessarily saying what should happen, but it does seem like closer to pure speculation (or an educated guess of some type) than actually have inside information. The key phrase to me is "Look for". Most of the time that seems to be followed with speculation. I could be wrong, but it's possible I'm right, at least. Having watched and read Rosenthal a ton this year, I can say that most of his sentences start with "look for" and then they become true.

FYI, Ken Rosenthal isn't just "some writer". I can't remember the last time he was wrong and pretty much all season long hes scooped everybody to every story. I pray to Len hes wrong, but Ken deserves all the credibility in the world.

Hmm, so you want Theriot to lead off, yet you want to keep Murton for his OBP. If you value OBP, why would you have the lowest OBP guy get the most plate appearances?

Boston must have had an unseasonably cold June and July then because he OPS'ed 657 and 683 in those months. As far as media attention, he was like the 10th biggest name on that team. I'm sure he got media attention for sucking that year, but come on, media attention is no reason. I agree he has been up and down, and I'm not the biggest fan of his attitude either, but when you have Ryan Theriot penciled in at starter, he doesn't look so bad. This year is quite flukey with the 375 BABIP, but even if you adjust for that you get right around his 2006 #s. I agree that Marshall isn't the cat's meow, but I also wouldn't say he has poor trade value. Wandy Rodriguez hasn't done anything in the ML and is now 28, his stock has fallen significantly. It really all depends on how smart the opposing GM is. Peripheral-wise and FIP-wise, Marshall's 2007 campaign doesn't look great. ERA-wise he was a 24 yr old lefty who was under 4. As you mentioned, injuries are a concern (personally, I think the cubs shut him down this year because they didn't want him getting injured). He actually has pitched over 130 innings in each of the last 2 years, so thats a good sign. Patterson's bat will play in CF, hes not a great prospect, but hes a pretty good one. We also have other arms in the minors to give up. My point is, that a team like the Braves are most likely looking for a pre-arbi starter who has proven himself in the majors. I can't think of anyone besides Marshall, who will be available who fits that bill.

You save 21M by trading for him and just extending him because TX would still be on the hook.

Add Zito and they could easily have one of the top rotations in the game. Pitching is very important. Add Arod, and they aren't as far as people think. They don't have much else offensively, but they will probably have the most money to spend. We will see if Arod runs for the money again, like he did when he went to Texas. You want me to add him again? I have him as part of the front 3. As far as ARod running for the money, I don't see it happening. What would be the point? He has to know that the 25m a year he originally signed for is what hampered him in Texas. He can stay in NY for another 3 years if it's all about the money. At this point, he should not care about the money and be more focused on playing on a fun team in a fun town that has a chance to win. In other words, he's done the highest paid player in baseball thing and it hasn't brought him any championship rings. If I was him, I'd take a modest but respectable payday from a team that would allow me to play the position I want to play and not rip me apart in the press day in and day out and the team gave me enjoyment, while still having an opportunity to win a championship ring. Chicago is ARod's kind of town. Surely you jest. ARod and Boras are not about to let ARod take a modest payday from a team. I'm sure ARod wants to remain the highest paid player in baseball and while winning a ring is important, he's not about to give up tens of millions of dollars to play on a team that might get him a ring. Besides the teams most able to afford $30 million per year are also the teams that give him the best shot at a ring (Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.) The union would have something to say about that as well. To back up BTB, ARod has a stipulation in his contract that Rodriguez may void after 2008 or 2009 unless club increases 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than highest-paid MLB position player.

There is a lot of that now being tracked. THT has been recently writing an article every few days including pitch break/speed charts that allows differentiation between those pitches. As UK said, its the way analysis is going. To expand, the data mining of this stuff is going to be great. As everyone has observed, pitchers throw in patterns. A pitcher will throw a certain pitch in certain counts, or rely on a his curve, when he can't get hsi fastball over the plate. Everyone inherently "knows" these things, but with the availabilty of the data teams can better prepare their hitters to have a gameplan against a pitcher. In essence, good data mining should result in the same outcome as when a pitcher is tipping his pitches. Conversely, hitters will be able to analyze what pitches they hit well, where those pitches are in the strikezone, etc. In essence, this will allow teams to create a Ted Williams chart for each hitter not only on pitch location in the zone but on what type of pitch. Pitchers can use this to their advantage as well. I think the new wave of play by play information will do more to allow players/teams who embrace it to play smarter and better.

Still grinding my teeth over the damn FedEx fees, but could be worse.

There is a lot of that now being tracked. THT has been recently writing an article every few days including pitch break/speed charts that allows differentiation between those pitches. As UK said, its the way analysis is going.

What a joke. So it sounds like for the NLCS tickets, we don't have to do anything, we'll automatically get the refund. Am I reading that correctly?

Add Zito and they could easily have one of the top rotations in the game. Pitching is very important. Add Arod, and they aren't as far as people think. They don't have much else offensively, but they will probably have the most money to spend. We will see if Arod runs for the money again, like he did when he went to Texas. Don't forget, the Giants are losing Barry. I pulled an old average EQA by position chart, and other than Bond's every one of the Giants starters were below their positional average. The Giants finished 19 back, and are taking a ginormous step back letting Bonds go. Its going to take a lot more than ARod to get them back to where they need to be to compete.

Everybody says "You can't turn impatient hitters into patient ones" but Soriano did take more walks than ever in 2006. Soriano didn't take them, he was given them. He had 16 intentional walks (as opposed to 4 this year) and God only knows how many unintentional-intentional walks because he was on team with a very weak offense. So, you are saying that Soriano turned from an impatient hitter his whole career, to a patient hitter in 2006 and then back to an impatient hitter in 2007?

All true, but we are talking about Brian Sabean. Hes not going to make the smart move. I think he'll sign Andruw.

Little Caesars, not Dominos

Both are short term contracts (2 years). Sure they are on the decline, but they are still MUCH MUCH MUCH better than what we have. Renteria is especially attractive because hes only owed 6M a year. Also, we traded Cherry to Baltimore. I think if Renteria came here it'd be like his time with Boston all over again. Tejada posted a .799 OPS... neither will come cheap in a trade. What makes you think that Renteria being here would be like Boston all over again? Tejada did have a .799 OPS in the AL East, without having the luxury of hitting against the Orioles pitchers. His post-ASB OPS was 822. Like I said earlier, I don't expect these guys to come over and OPS 1000, but they will surely provide a signficant upgrade over what we had in 2007 and Theriot in 2008. Marshall's value is at its highest, I say sell now. Packaging him with someone like Patterson should net us Renteria.

Both are short term contracts (2 years). Sure they are on the decline, but they are still MUCH MUCH MUCH better than what we have. Renteria is especially attractive because hes only owed 6M a year. Also, we traded Cherry to Baltimore.

Again, I'm refuting the idea that SS is the only option, not that it is an option. I completely agree that it's the big one. I've been dying to get ARod on this team since 1999, when people first talked of him leaving Seattle. I definitely think SS is the position where they could most help themselves. But it's not the only option. I said it was the only option to upgrade significantly. How about, its the most realistic and easiest position to upgrade significantly at.

The Cubs were at or near the bottom in production from SS, C and CF. And if they can't pull off the ARod miracle, I would try really hard to trade the farm for Cabrera to fill RF. SS is not the only opportunity. This is how they compared to NL average OPS... SS---115 points behind CF---52 points behind RF---8 points AHEAD If you want to plug Theriot's #s instead of all of our SS, then we are 83 points behind. We were 16th at SS, 13th at CF, and 6th at RF. Yeah, CF is an issue, but definitely not nearly as much as SS. Plus, its where our best two non-Vitters position prospects reside. Saying it's the spot where they could conceivably get the biggest improvement is not the same as saying the only opportunity for significant improvement. I agree SS is the big one. But C (that's catcher, not CF) is also a big one. But Theriot is a big part of that SS, and right now has the starting position for 08 with minimal projected improvement over where we were, while Soto is a very small part of the C, and right now has the starting position for 08 with a decent amount of projected improvement over where we were. Also, we did get 33 more OPS out of C than SS to set the baseline.

In all fairness, they got the 6th best NL OPS out of RF this year. Granted, teams 6-10 were all closely bunched, but the Cubs biggest holes were SS, C and CF. If they can get an impact RF, I'm all for it. Yeah, I know the 2007 stats. I was talking about looking ahead to 2008. I think Jones and/or Pie can outproduce CF from this past season (Pie improvement, Jacque in a FA year starting the season on time, no Pagan) and leave RF as the hole, with no Floyd and Murton probably on the bench. Well yeah, of course RF is going to be a hole if you don't have anyone starting there... Well, it's either nobody or Jacque Jones, which may or may not be the same thing. Murton did get nearly half the starts in August and September...

In all fairness, they got the 6th best NL OPS out of RF this year. Granted, teams 6-10 were all closely bunched, but the Cubs biggest holes were SS, C and CF. If they can get an impact RF, I'm all for it. Yeah, I know the 2007 stats. I was talking about looking ahead to 2008. I think Jones and/or Pie can outproduce CF from this past season (Pie improvement, Jacque in a FA year starting the season on time, no Pagan) and leave RF as the hole, with no Floyd and Murton probably on the bench. Well yeah, of course RF is going to be a hole if you don't have anyone starting there...

Lillibridge is really a Pirates' prospect. He came over in the LaRoche trade. I haven't heard any more "hype" on him now than a year ago. I agree with you though that the reason the Braves are where they are and were where they were is because of talent evaluation. They know who to deal and who to keep. Sean Rodriguez has hit well, but like CR said, I've also heard his glove won't play at SS.

The Cubs were at or near the bottom in production from SS, C and CF. And if they can't pull off the ARod miracle, I would try really hard to trade the farm for Cabrera to fill RF. SS is not the only opportunity. I agree that there are other opportunities out there and this is something that bothers me about Hendry, his lack of creativity in filling holes. It will be a lot easier and cheaper to find someone that can out hit Theriot more than someone that can out hit Murton.

The Cubs were at or near the bottom in production from SS, C and CF. And if they can't pull off the ARod miracle, I would try really hard to trade the farm for Cabrera to fill RF. SS is not the only opportunity. This is how they compared to NL average OPS... SS---115 points behind CF---52 points behind RF---8 points AHEAD If you want to plug Theriot's #s instead of all of our SS, then we are 83 points behind. We were 16th at SS, 13th at CF, and 6th at RF. Yeah, CF is an issue, but definitely not nearly as much as SS. Plus, its where our best two non-Vitters position prospects reside.

I would have liked to have seen Cedeno in a lot more after Theriot cooled off. Considering that SS is the only opportunity for significant upgrade offensively, I'd rather go with a sure thing rather than Cedeno. Unfortunately Hatteberg is redundent with Ward.

UGH, I just had a long post on the top SS prospects deleted...I don't feel like writing it again, but the conclusion was that its a weak class (and weak draft), Brignac is the best of the bunch and is very very much in the future plans for the D-Rays. Other SS prospects Hu (Dodgers)--really good defensively, insane offensive year out of nowhere. Not as flukey as you would think. Dodgers only have one more year on the Furcal deal. Lillibridge (Braves)--good all around, really good defense and speed. Most likely to be dealt as hes blocked by Escobar (and Renteria for now). Lowrie (Red Sox)--better hitter and patience than Lillibridge, defense might move him across the bag. If he has to move to 2B they will deal him. Not a lot to write home about after those guys. All except Brignac started in AA and ended in AAA. Unless trades occur, all will start in the minors but end up in the majors next year (including Brignac).