nilodnayr

Better yet, let's stay as far away from Jones as possible. Better yet, lets stay as far away from Andruw Jones AND trade Jacque Jones!

Wasn't there speculation that he was offered something like 3 year 10/year deal and turned it down? I like Guillen, but hes probably not going to be worth the improvement.

If you want to see how pitching factors in you can take a look at KC and TB. While TB most likely has a tougher SOS than KC and scored 82 more runs than them, they allowed 166 more runs, knocking them decently below the Royals in Mephs ranking.

Theres a $2M buy out, so its a $14M decision. If either ARod or Jorge leave they absolutely have to pick it up.

Doesn't Wuertz start to become more expensive soon? I believe he becomes arbitration eligible this season. I just wonder if the Cubs might consider including him in a package deal to upgrade at another spot. He only becomes slightly more expensive. At most he'll get about a 500K raise. Its just going to be his first year of arbi, he won't pull over $1M.

I like Wuertz. I like Wuertz alot. But I think he just flies pretty far under the radar. Hes extremely underrated and unfortunately, thats the cubs fault. Sabermetrically inclined teams may show more than just passing interest, but the majority of the league really doesn't go crazy over a reliever who doesn't pitch in the 7th/8th/9th regularly. I'd much rather see if anyone has interest in Dempster, whos no better than Wuertz, costs 5M, and has the "closer" label on him.

It would take a lot more than Jones for Kemp

I don't believe they can. I think I read somewhere that there was a clause in his contract that stated the Reds can't deal him until sometime in June if they picked up his option. Edited to add: This is where I saw it: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/dunns-option-li.html Its a no trade clause until June 15th. I'm sure by spring training he'll be wanting to get as far away from Dusty as possible. If Dunn signed/filed the appropriate paperwork, would he be able to get that lifted, or is that a Player's Union thing? It can be waived by the player. Thanks. I just wonder what Adam Dunn's true feelings are. I think hes seen that the writing has been on the wall for a long time that hes not going to be there long term. The second they traded Kearns, I'm sure he would do anything to get out of there. At the very least, these no trade clauses are there to force extentions/more $ rather than actually block trades.

Darvish allowed 123 hits in 207.7 innings. Thats insane.

The thing about Mazzone is that his strenght is pitch selection. I feel he could really help Rich Hill.

I don't believe they can. I think I read somewhere that there was a clause in his contract that stated the Reds can't deal him until sometime in June if they picked up his option. Edited to add: This is where I saw it: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/dunns-option-li.html Its a no trade clause until June 15th. I'm sure by spring training he'll be wanting to get as far away from Dusty as possible.

I bet he bats him 6th.

I really can't think of a worse team for Dusty to manage. They have young players that need to play, but also crappy players that could be playing over them. With arguably the greatest concentration of high end talent (Bailey, Votto, Bruce, Cueto) they just hired the opposite of the kind of manager they need.

I feel quite comfortable saying Ronny could've put up a .367/.379 line in AAA '06. I don't, he doesn't walk enough to have a .367 OBP. At the AAA level, Ronny put up a .403 OBP in 275 PA's in 2005 and a .422 OBP in 327 PA's in 2007. So why is it you don't think Ronny could have a .367 OBP in AAA in 2006 when he put up .400+ OBP's in 05 and 07 at the same level? However, his IsoD in 2007 was 63 and 48 in 2006. So, he'd have to hit 300 - 320 to have a 360ish OBP. I get that. But he hit .355 and .359 in 05 and 07, respectively, in roughly a half season worth of PA's each year so what reason is there to believe he couldn't and wouldn't have done that in 2006 at the AAA level? What he's going to do at the ML level is debatable but there's no doubt in my mind that Cedeno would have been a far, far superior hitter to Theriot had he played in AAA in 2006. His BABIP was 93 points above the I-Cubs lin 2007 and 69 points above the I-Cubs in 2005. I like Cedenot a lot, but hes probably not going to hit over 300 in the majors without a lot of luck.

I feel quite comfortable saying Ronny could've put up a .367/.379 line in AAA '06. I don't, he doesn't walk enough to have a .367 OBP. At the AAA level, Ronny put up a .403 OBP in 275 PA's in 2005 and a .422 OBP in 327 PA's in 2007. So why is it you don't think Ronny could have a .367 OBP in AAA in 2006 when he put up .400+ OBP's in 05 and 07 at the same level? However, his IsoD in 2007 was 63 and 48 in 2006. So, he'd have to hit 300 - 320 to have a 360ish OBP.

Hes a suffient backup on a team without Theriot and Cedeno.

DeRosa's BABIP for the last two years were 343 and 348, higher than league average, HOWEVER, his LD% was 22.1% and 22.6%, and he had high GB%, which would put his eBABIP, right at where his actual BABIP was. Long story short, his last two years were not flukey. Theirot's 2006 AAA MLE was 367/379, 2005 AA MLE was 365/391, 2004 A MLE was 367/342. His 2007 326/346 is pretty inline with his minor league MLEs. The numbers show that 2007 Theriot and 2007 DeRosa are right around what we should expect of them over the next couple years. Sidenote: BP 2007 Projections Theriot: 331/360 DeRosa: 347/448

Hey, if Eckstein is possibly going to get 3/24, someone should be interested in Theriot.

For most likely more money.

Well we aren't talking about acquiring Renteria 3 years ago, we are talking about him now, coming off of an excellent and a very good two seasons. Like I said, I'm not in love with Marshall, but if I'm ATL why would I rather have Jon Garland than Sean Marshall? Garland has even worse peripherals than Marshall, said his shoulder is "done", and is only under control for 1 year at 12M.

You save 21M by trading for him and just extending him because TX would still be on the hook. 1. I thought texas only paid for the first few years and that this was the last year of the payment. 2. You would have to pay dearly to stop Arod from testing the market. I know that the cubs save 21 million (unless point 1 is right), but is the money really saved when you view rest of the market? Aram has a good contract (relatively), and the market is in one of the high end upswings right now. I think financially, in the long run for most GM's, it makes more sense to just wait, pay the extra few million and keep your star players. Especially if they are young stars who could offset the cost of Arod initially. EDIT: Just looked it up...Point 1 is wrong. Texas is still paying for him. The thing about stopping ARod from testing the market is that if you have that TX money you can essentially (by way of extention) outbid anyone he'd sign for as a FA by 21M and still end up paying the same as any of those teams who would sign him as a FA would pay because 21M of that would be coming from Texas. If the yankees know that they won't retain him then they should try to trade him for anything. Anything is better than ARod walking away and getting nothing in return. Although, the Yanks can and will offer him arbi if he voids the contract, so you'd have to give them the equivalent of a back of the first round + sandwich pick talent. I'd love to trade Samardzjia + Veal/Petrick/Gallagher/someone else for ARod and sign him to an extention. Although, I'm guessing we would have to be in a bidding war with the Angels on this one, which we'll lose (however, the Yanks might want to move him to the NL). After 2010, his salary will increase significantly, but thats the time that we lose some of our current contracts. Take advantage of the Texas money if at all possible. He must opt out within 10 days of the end of the World Series, I don't think the Yankees can trade him before that. Yeah, I was wondering about that...is the earliest you can start trading Nov 11?

Exactly. There's no way he can be this stupid. Right? You don't bench a guy and then leave him off the postseason roster if you plan on having him around next year. Come on, guys. Think about it. This makes zero sense. Unless of course hes planning on trading him as Rosenthal postulates.

You had a very valid point. A+ for critical reading. Its just something I've noticed about the way Rosenthal talks. He always says "look for".

Just because he's not going to repeat 2005 doesn't mean he should be moved out of the 3 spot. His power is fine as he showed in the second half this year and there is no reason to move him in the order. I'd like him as my #2 hitter just so he gets more ABs and we don't have a waste like Theriot getting so many ABs. He did regain power in the second half with a 252 Iso, but thats nowhere near his 2005 Iso of 327. Its right inline with his 2nd half Isos from 03 and 04. Don't get me wrong, a 252 Iso is pretty awesome, but thats not going to want me to keep him behind Theriot in the lineup.

You save 21M by trading for him and just extending him because TX would still be on the hook. 1. I thought texas only paid for the first few years and that this was the last year of the payment. 2. You would have to pay dearly to stop Arod from testing the market. I know that the cubs save 21 million (unless point 1 is right), but is the money really saved when you view rest of the market? Aram has a good contract (relatively), and the market is in one of the high end upswings right now. I think financially, in the long run for most GM's, it makes more sense to just wait, pay the extra few million and keep your star players. Especially if they are young stars who could offset the cost of Arod initially. EDIT: Just looked it up...Point 1 is wrong. Texas is still paying for him. The thing about stopping ARod from testing the market is that if you have that TX money you can essentially (by way of extention) outbid anyone he'd sign for as a FA by 21M and still end up paying the same as any of those teams who would sign him as a FA would pay because 21M of that would be coming from Texas. If the yankees know that they won't retain him then they should try to trade him for anything. Anything is better than ARod walking away and getting nothing in return. Although, the Yanks can and will offer him arbi if he voids the contract, so you'd have to give them the equivalent of a back of the first round + sandwich pick talent. I'd love to trade Samardzjia + Veal/Petrick/Gallagher/someone else for ARod and sign him to an extention. Although, I'm guessing we would have to be in a bidding war with the Angels on this one, which we'll lose (however, the Yanks might want to move him to the NL). After 2010, his salary will increase significantly, but thats the time that we lose some of our current contracts. Take advantage of the Texas money if at all possible.