nilodnayr

Also of note: Marshall had a 5.84 K/9 this year. His FIP was 4.58. Hes never pitched over 150 innings. Don't expect Marshall to get better from what he did this year. I expect Marshall to pitch better, though his ERA may get worse. I'm for trading him because I'm not sure he'll ever be durable enough to last a whole season, though. I don't know if he'll pitch much better, but yeah, you said what I meant. I don't think the result of his pitching will be better. I agree with the durability. I believe he wasn't dropped from the rotation due to Lou or Hendry being displeased with his performance. I hope they were just being cautious, but due to the fact we were fighting for our playoff lives, most likely he was injured. I'm glad they kept it under wraps though because with his sparkling ERA this year, its time to SELL SELL SELL.

If you say so. When you're trotting a Santana out there instead of Jason Marquis, the offense does not have to score as many runs in order to win. Ahh, I see. So an offense that doesn't have to score as many runs looks better. Makes perfect sense. When you picked up the paper today did you read "Man that Mike Lowell had a real nice win lastnight"?

Well I don't think they'll get that new manager...at least as a manager. http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/articles/10814996.html

Perfect!! EDIT: Shoot, Samardzija has a NTC!! So do Sori and DLee. Yeah, it was a joke. Yeah I know....although when everyone comes up with crazy insane fantasy baseball trades, this is the one that pops into my head. At least it follows 2 of the 3 things usually needed for a trade to be realistic Its relatively payroll neutral (well, for the cubs at least, not for the dodgers) Meets all teams needs/accomplishes goals/makes them better However, theres just a smidge too many players involved in that Dodgers/Cubs deal. But man, if you were the GM and pulled that (assuming a Santana extention is part of the deal), you could just sit back, relax and watch the trophies come in for years and years.

I know its completely ridiculous for the Dodgers to sell the farm, but at least they are getting a ton of production back and some young guys. I just assume Colletti being in the Holy Triumverent of idiodic front offices (Cubs, Giants, Dodgers) would want exactly the opposite of what I would want. So, you exploit the vets vs. rooks fiasco thats going on right now in LA, by taking on the players that were an issue (Kemp/Loney/Ethier) along with a guy they've jerked around (Billingsley) and lets throw in Kershaw and LaRoche for good measure. It really makes the Dodgers probably one of the teams to beat in the NL Penny Lowe Schmidt Martin Sori Lee Kent Furcal Pierre Nomar Saito Brox But it also makes them expensive and with a short time horizon. The dodgers should go young, but it seems like they don't want to do that, and this gives them a reasonable expectation of winning it all next year. Especially considering their division is ultra competitive right now. As far as the Santana trade goes, I see them needing position players moreso than pitchers. They have a stable of young developing arms, thats why I'd think they'd be interested in Pie and LaRoche. Smith has recently mentioned trying to exploit the small RF and get Left handers (Pie and Jones). Veal is a throw in high reward pitcher. If I were them, I'd prefer Kemp and Kershaw, but thats why the Dodger trade works out so well...eliminates the competition.

Perfect!! EDIT: Shoot, Samardzija has a NTC!! So do Sori and DLee.

Also of note: Marshall had a 5.84 K/9 this year. His FIP was 4.58. Hes never pitched over 150 innings. Don't expect Marshall to get better from what he did this year.

Josh Beckett, for my money. And little of it has to do with wearing us out in '03. He's just a self-important jerk. Kinda reminds me of a young Curt Shilling :lol: That said, what is your problem with old, grizzled Curt Shilling? Aside from his bloody-sock lore and endearment to Boston fans everywhere, I don't really mind him. People hate him because hes an ardent NeoCon.

How about we trade DLee. Soriano, Marshall, Samardzjia, Maquis and Colvin for Billingsley, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, LaRoche, and Kershaw. Sign ARod. Trade Pie, Jones, Veal, LaRoche for Santana. Kemp Loney ARod ARam Ethier Murton DeRosa Soto Santana Z Lilly Billingsley Hill

But we're giving them Patterson (who cant play 2b) and Veal (who can't throw a strike)!!!!! They HAVE to give us their best player!!!!!

I wouldn't exactly agree with everyone that Bedard is untouchable. The Orioles are at a place where they obivously aren't going to contend in the next few years (or more realistically ever). Bedard's name does get brought up in the papers, but its going to take a Santana like offer, not our left over prospects.

So, if on the uber aggressive side, we can get Tejada for Marshall and Cedeno, you are saying that all it will take is Patterson, Veal, Ohman, and Jones to get Bedard? And on the more realistic side, it will take Marshall and Patterson. Possibly Veal as well. I don't understand where people get that we can trade virtually nothing for Bedard.

This

Bruce thinks they'll be some trades, and that Jones may be shopped, while the Cubs could look for a backup, as opposed to a replacement for Ryan Theriot. If they can find a LH hitting SS who can provide some offense, it's possible the two players could combine for adequate production. But I don't believe that Theriot just needs rest to make his numbers better. Well that doesn't sound very promising.

No it doesn't. "People" don't value hitters on wins, however, they do value pitchers on wins. Therefore, if you improve how many runs you score, a pitcher will win more games and hence look better. Huh? I don't put Santana equal to Renteria/Tejada equal on the scale of possibility. As of now, from most possible to least possible IMO it goes Renteria>>Tejada>>>>>>>>ARod>>>>>Bedard>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Santana Where exactly did you illustrate that? Typical, "hey this other team has an awesome guy, they'll totally trade him to us for 50 cents on the dollar!!!"

Ohh and by the way, if you constuct the cubs lineup "optimally" with ARod, 5.93 runs/game (137 runs/season). Which equates to an 6.16 ERA difference. Heres the lineup. DLee ARod Soto ARam Murton Sori Jones Z DeRo

I forget which one it was, but someone replaced Theriot with A-Rod in one of the lineup simulators and it was 90+ runs difference. For the record, that would be equivalent to a 4.32 ERA difference (using haltz's assumptions) Yowzers. Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679 worth 300 million? ~100 extra runs per year? Yeah, yeah it is.

As some of you may remember, one of my good friends is a writer on the show. When I went out to LA to visit him last winter, we went to a producer's house for a party to watch the Christmas episode with the cast and crew that were in LA. Women that showed up were Pam, Angela, Jan, and Meredith. Angela is actually super hot. Shes very tiny, but she looks soooo much better than she looks on the show. Pam was extremely cute, but she had a baseball hat on and was with her (now former) husband. Also, evidently Jan is a complete weirdo in real life as well. Meredith was insanely nice, but yeah, even if I got as drunk as she is on the show, I wouldn't come close to hitting that.

I might be wrong, but I thought McGwire played for the A's first. Stitch was referring to players acquired via trade. And yes, MacGwire was amazing with the cards 1997 253/411/684 (year he was traded) 1998 299/470/752 (led league in OBP, SLG, and RC) 1999 278/424/697 (2nd in league in OPS, 3rd in RC) 2000 and 2001 were half years but he still put up 305/483/746 in 2000. Even in a horrible 2001 he had an OPS+ of 105 and put up 187/316/492

This is similar to what I've always said would be a winning strategy in baseketball (particularly college). Get the other team's starting big men to commit fouls (by driving the pain), forcing the team to put in their backup big men (who usually suck) or to make their starting big men play slack defense. Similarly to baseball its not incredibly easy to draw a foul (or fould off every pitch), but its not that hard either. Sometimes you might get blocked (or swing through a pitch), but you've got the # of attempts on your side as long as you stick to the strategy.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html

It would be ARod and by a wide margin mainly because he's going to play every day as opposed to once every five days. I wouldn't call it a wide margin. You didn't take into consideration the impact each player would have on a game. Since winning is about scoring more runs than your opponent, lets assign 50% value to runs scored and 50% value to runs allowed. Lets say team defense has 20% to do with allowing runs and pitching has 80%. Therefore multiplying by 50%, defense has 10% impact. Pitching has 40% impact. Out of pitching we have starters and relievers. Lets say the average starter goes 6.5 innings (pitches 72% of the innings). So he has 72%*40%, roughly 29% impact. So, in a 5 man rotation, 1 starting pitcher has about 6% impact on the game. As we stated, runs scored have 50% value. You could divide that by 9 (or 8) and youd have about 6% impact assuming the player plays every day. A little bit more (~1%) added for defense. So, basically a starting position player pretty close to as valuable as a starting pitcher. The position player plays more often, but has a smaller impact on the outcome of the game. Note: this is quick and dirty with assumptions. Theres probably some interesting things you could add with win shares, leverage index, positional value, etc. The main other things to be taken into consideration is who they would be replacing, $, players to give up in a trade.

Um, no he's not. He's a little guy that plays shortstop. Leadoff hitters can only come from the SS and CF positions. Occasionally a second basemen can bat leadoff, but usually they bat 2nd. So I'll take Theriot batting leadoff over Pie anyday. Guys, I have an awesome idea. Lets take our worst hitter and give him the most at bats and then follow him with our best hitters!!!!!

This is like the Abreu discussion except much worse. Do people not realize that DeRosa's IsoP was OVER DOUBLE what Castillo had last year? Or that his OBP was GREATER THAN Castillo's?

Yeah, I shouldn't post early in the morning. What I was trying to say is that a slap hitter will most likely show his "true colors" in the majors in his first year as opposed to a power hitter who needs more time to adjust. There really aren't enough players to have a decent sample size, but it seems intuitive. If your only goal is to make contact, its going to be easier to adjust quickly to better/different pitching than if your goal is to make contact with power.