nilodnayr

Ok, so you are saying that those of the young, toolsy, unproven class have a lot of perceived value, but you aren't a big fan. I'd have to agree, so many of those guys flame out as they face higher competition. Some make it through and are great, but its a lot more likely the guy will never reach the majors. High risk/high reward. I think one thing working for the Braves is that they have a lot of confidence in their player development to mold young players and help them adapt to higher levels of pitching.

Couple of points... Evidently this deal was being discussed at the trade deadline. So its not like Hendry signing Soriano last year. These teams have had many conversations regarding this. At the time of the trading deadline the Braves still had hopes (valid or not) of getting in the playoffs. I'm sure they didn't want to trade away one of their best players. The reason Guillen "can't" play SS and Young and ARod can is IMO more due to injuries than ability. Just scrolling through KFFL, every other line on Guillen is sitting out a game because of groin, hamstring, shin, shoulder, knee, so on and so forth. The thought is that SS is too demanding on his body at this stage and he needs to move to 1B to stay in the lineup. I agree, this didn't get them over the hump, they need to improve at 3B and LF to be able to compete. So if the Tigers get ARod or Cabrera would that help? They seem to be a team that isn't afraid to make a move and I wouldn't be surprised if they made a huge signing or trade this off season. I think it would. They are going to see some regression from Maggs and Polanco. The Renteria move probably won't even make up for all of that. Inge is God awful, so a superstar like ARod or Cabrera would be a gigantic upgrade. However, Detroits problem is not hitting. They are one of the best offensive teams. Their problem is pitching. Curt Schilling would be a great move. He listed them as his #2 team, behind the Indians. They have a lot of young guys on the cusp, but this is a team that needs to win now. Their offense is aging quickly. A Schilling signing should be their #1 priority.

Fukudome isnt going to hit more than fifteen HRs a year hear. He's probably more Mark Kotsay than Grady Sizemore. The money would be better spent on a quality SS: Miguel Tejada. An OF of Jones - Soriano - Pie would be good defensively and would be serviceable offensively. Our money would be better spent getting the out-enigma that is Ryan Theriot out of the lineup. HRs aren't everything--and I agree, Fukudome in the big leagues could easily be no more than a 10-15 HR guy. Big deal. Kenny Lofton hit that level of HRs at the peak of his career, too. OTOH, Fukudome has everything the Cubs need, he is a PERFECT fit for this team. He hits for lower BA than Ichiro (300), but has much better plate discipline, so the OBP is just as high (400). He has gap power, so his SLG is strong (500) despite the modest HR totals. He can run some, and by all accounts has a cannon for an arm. Who will be dumb enough to run on the Cubs with an OF of Soriano, Pie and Fukudome? And finally, he adds balance to the batting lineup with a LH bat, and he doesn't strike out much, either. GET HIM. i know exactly who he is, what he has done and what he is capable of doing. don't lecture me on him. like i said hes pretty much mark kotsay ie .275/.360/.450 CFer w/ decent defense. that's not an insult, but I think the Cubs would gain more upgrading at SS over Theriot than Fukudome over Jonesy in CF. Heck he probably is NOT an upgrade over Murton at all. An OF of Soriano - Fukudome - Jones wouldn't outproduce an OF of Soriano - Jones - Murton by more than a handful of runs. Certainly not Fukudome's price. Offensively Murton's probably a safer bet than Fukudome and their upside is about the same. Both guys are .360/.450 guys. Meph, isn't patience a skill that doesn't translate that well between Japan and the majors? The last three years in Japan, Hideki averaged over a .120 IsoD. Hes never eclipsed 100 in the majors and has averaged .076.

But didn't you just call Gorkys/Jair "a bundle"? Doesn't Hernandez fall into the Tabata/Andrus class?

Couple of points... Evidently this deal was being discussed at the trade deadline. So its not like Hendry signing Soriano last year. These teams have had many conversations regarding this. At the time of the trading deadline the Braves still had hopes (valid or not) of getting in the playoffs. I'm sure they didn't want to trade away one of their best players. The reason Guillen "can't" play SS and Young and ARod can is IMO more due to injuries than ability. Just scrolling through KFFL, every other line on Guillen is sitting out a game because of groin, hamstring, shin, shoulder, knee, so on and so forth. The thought is that SS is too demanding on his body at this stage and he needs to move to 1B to stay in the lineup. I agree, this didn't get them over the hump, they need to improve at 3B and LF to be able to compete.

Yeah, "gap power" means doesn't hit the ball hard enough to get out of the park. No gaps in the stands.

It goes w/ production by position too. I'm happy with Kyler Burke though. Also goes to show you how amazing his 2006 was.

So you're into the three-way...

17 for 50 with 17Ks...thats one hell of a BABIP.

One version is that Dolan offered him a raise and near term GM succession to keep him in Cleveland. I suppose that's possible. But, it would seem odd to me that a guy waits who knows how many years for a GM opening with Cleveland when he could land a GM job now. Not really considering hes declined to even interview for GM jobs before this. A great GM can get a bad rep and possibly ruin his future career if he steps into a situation to fail. Its not like Antonetti's stock is going to go down or there won't be GM jobs available in the future. Hes very smart to wait for the Cleveland job, or another good situation. On a related note, I wonder if he would be able to take Diamond View with him if he were to leave.

??? He's in your backyard. :) She's also in his backyard. I still prefer Logan White. Why do you like Kim Ng more? I didn't mean to imply that I liked her more (even though I do). But both would be ridiculously significant upgrades. I'd love to have White in my organization, but I don't know how well his skills will translate to that of a GM. Hes obviously one of the greatest scouts alive, but it takes a different skill set to pick which high school pitcher is going to be an awesome major leaguer than what a GM needs to do. Kim on the other hand, has the opposite going for her. She has little/no scouting experience. But I think a GM can lean on his/her scouts and thats what she'll do. That being said, my fantasy baseball team for the last 3 years has been named "Logan White's Honkys". Ideally, you could combine them as a package to make a super-GM.

If I count the 2007 payroll as you described in the last paragraph, Cubs 2007 payroll was around 107M.

Rozner's "21" is just wrong and ridiculous. In reality we have 7.5M to spend at a 115M payroll. Z=15M, 5M bonus/5 years Sori=13M, 8M bonus/8 years Lee=13M ARam=14M, 5M bonus/5 years Lilly=7M, bonus already paid Dempster=5.5M, 1M bonus/3 years Marquis=6.375M Jones=5M, 4M bonus (paid 1/06-1/08) Trax=100K buy out (please, God) DeRo=4.75M Howry=4M 1.5M bonus/3 years Eyre=3.8M player option Blanco=2.8M, 750K bonus/2 years Ward=1.2M club option Ohman=1.6M Murton~500K Wuertz~800K Cedeno~500K Theriot~400K Hill~400K Fuld~400K Hart~400K Marmol~400K Soto~400K Marshall~400K Pie~400K Wood? Theres my 25, without Wood, as hes a FA. In addition to the 20 Rozner has, I added in Cedeno, Fuld, Marshall, Ohman, Pie. I'm not sure how you leave off a guy under contract for next year and a guy who succeeded in the rotation for half the year and add in a guy whos going to be a FA, but I guess I should just be happy he included ARam. Anyway, if you add up just the salaries (no bonus $), thats a 25 man roster of around 102M. However, if you add in the pro-rated bonuses thats about another 5.5M. Cots has us listed at 99.67M with signing bonueses. Rozner confirms the 2007 payroll was $100M, so to be consistent we should include the pro-rated signing bonueses. Meaning that we've eaten up half of that money in escalating contracts. So, we only have around 7.5M left to spend this offseason. The big problem is next offseason, where we only shed about 6M or so from the books. Fortunately, we don't lose a ton value (closer, CF, set up man, both lefties in the BP, backup catcher, and top PH). Its not a big loss, we lose crap like Jones and Blanco, our pen loses 4 guys, two of which stink. The big losses will be Howry, Ward, and Dempster. Hopefully Marmol will pave the wave for young starters who can't make it as starters to shift to the pen instead of investing tons of money in crap FAs. Unless we get another big boost in payroll, we aren't going to have any flexibility. Z=+2.5M Sori=+3M Lee=0 ARam=+1.65M Lilly=+5M Dempster=-5.83M Marquis=+3.5M Jones=-6.33M DeRo=+.75M Howry=-4.5M Eyre=-3.8M Blanco=-3.175M Ward=-1.2M Ohman=-1.6M Murton~+2M Wuertz~+800K Cedeno~+1M Theriot~+100K Hill~+100K Fuld~+100K Hart~+100K Marmol~+100K Soto~+100K Marshall~+100K

??? He's in your backyard. :) She's also in his backyard.

YAY YAY YAY

What about Luke Scott? Reports are that the Astros are going after a CF to move Pence to RF.

because they want the money? This isn't complicated - he wanted out of new york and boras told him he would still get the money. for pro athletes, it's either about the money or about the money. and if they say it isn't, they're lying What a terrible generalization. It's not always about maximizing the money for every athlete. Sure it is for many of them. But there are dozens of athletes in different sports that have taken less money (or restructured deals) to go to a team with a better chance of winning a title, or improving their teams chances of winning a title. Frequently, it's athletes in ARod's situation - have tons of money and the big name, but really want the ring. And in baseball, the Yankees give you a great chance to win one, but they certainly aren't the only team that can regularly contend for a title by adding ARod (and other teams come with less baggage than the Yankees do). right, so they really aren't being all that altruistic since they already have enough money for 5 lifetimes Why should they (or anyone) be altruistic?

I think players who have the good fortune of being desired they decide what is important to them and prioritize based on that. Money might be extremely important, but so might location, competitiveness, friends, etc. Sure, all athletes want $, but guys turn down higher offers from crap teams in crap cities all the time. Similarly, like in ARod's stituation 8 years ago, he had a choice between the Texas bid and whoever else. Turned out the Texas bid was $50M higher than the next best bid. At the time, $50M weighed more heavily than whatever other qualities the other teams had over Texas. Basically, its an unfair statement to say that all athletes just go after the money. Money is one of the factors, and usually the highest ranking, but that doesn't mean that other factors do not apply. And in ARod's case, the relative difference in money that was offered outweighed the other characteristics he was looking for in a team/city.

Look who just became available... http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3086562 Much like guys like Floyd, Jacque, Burnitz, etc., I'd be shocked if Jenkins isn't on Hendry's radar. :( Do the Cubs have an option like that in the minors? How do his (Jenkins) numbers compare to Jones and is he better defensively? IIRC Jenkins has a cannon for an arm, but hes not especially mobile. I think he ranked as a below averaged RF, but an above average LF. Hes always hit righties pretty well, but hes 33. His 3 year OPS progression vs righties is 922 to 871 to 808. Hes in the decline but can can probably still put up a decent part of the meaty end of a platoon over the next couple years. But he could also exponentially decline. The problem is that he put up a stink about being a platoon player in Milwaukee and will want a starting job and will probably be looking for a lot more money than should be spent on him.

I believe he does. BP just launched the new basketball website.

wow. simply wow Gorkys compares to Maybin. We could not have offered anything near that. Don't think he has Maybin's power potential. Gorkys is good, but he doesn't compare to Maybin. And he doesnt compare to Pie either, Gorkys hasnt played above A ball yet. He still has quite a ways to go. Gorkys hits everything on the ground, he'll never be a double digit HR hitter unless he pulls an Alex Rios and does a 180 and starts hitting everything in the air. Hes a really good prospect, don't get me wrong, but hes a project, nowhere near ready. From what the Braves were saying, I thought they wanted more ML ready guys.

wow. simply wow

He might have, but I don't think it would complicate things anymore than attempting to trade him prior to him opting out of his contract. I agree, the whole point is that the Yanks would be trading him to a team he would sign an extention with. Plus, from everything I've heard, I don't know if hes "officially" opted out. If he has, then I guess its a moot point. I don't know how complicated it really would have been. If I'm Stoneman and Cashman calls me and says, "hey, ARod's gonna opt out and hes considering signing with you guys. If you want to save $20M (the texas $), we'll trade him to you for Brandon Wood (or whomever of some value) and give you guys a 72 hour window for an extention" Seems pretty simple to me. Its a win win because the yanks get something for nothing, the Angels give up something, but save $20, some of which is going to go as "extra $" to ARod, and some to their coffers. It doesn't even have to be as valuable as Brandon Wood (although after another crappy year, his value is questionable). The Yanks obviously aren't in the drivers seat and should pretty much be interested in taking any B prospect. Why would ARod agree to an extension with the Angels without knowing what's out there on the free market? Because the angels can kick him back some of the 20M that is being saved with the Texas money.

That isn't true. Hernandez is double the prospect Marshall ever was and Jurrjens was better. And about trading Guillen. Sure his defense is poor, but Im sure his defense is better than a tubby Rodriguez moving back to short. Yeah, I amended my statement.

Considering Jurrjens >>>> Sean Marshall...probably not. I think Gorky is probably the more valuable of the two, but I think a Marshall + EPatt deal fits their immediate needs better. Basically a lower risk/lower reward version of Gorky and Jurrjens. Maybe not EASILY gotten the deal done, but I think we could have gotten it done. I would take Gorkys Hernandez and Jurrjens over EPatt + Marshall but I think most teams would rather have Marshall in a trade over Jurrgens straight up. I bet if you took a poll among GMs it would probably be 50/50 over which package is better. It just seemed to me (and from quotes) that the Braves were looking for a ML starter to step in. Marshall provides that, Jurrjens doesn't. Does Gorky play center or a corner OF? Gorkys plays CF. I don't think EPatt provides much value right now as he transfers to the outfield. Didn't Jurrjens have about 5 starts for Detroit last season? He's not experienced like Marshall but he could be a viable 5th starter. Yeah, Jurrjens did get some starts with the Tigers last year, but Marshall proved sustained success. Thats what I thought the Braves would have been after, but I guess I was wrong. Not to mention the injury issues with Marshall. Seemed like a good match, but the Braves probably did the smart thing by taking the younger, higher upside guys. Afterall, they can go with a rotation of Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, James, and Hampton/JurrjensReyes/Carlyle.