nilodnayr

I'm not sure how that qualifies as a fact. I know that Iwamura and Johjima put up some good numbers in Japan, especially in the last two years before they came over, they signed for modest contracts, and are putting up OPSes in the mid .700s. What is the dollar total for Johjima and Iwamura's contracts? $16 million? What's the numbers we hear get tossed around for Fukudome? A 4 year, $52 million deal maybe? Is Fukudome going to put up numbers 3-4 times better than those guys? Doubtful. I agree with Bobby Abreu 2007 type numbers, or 2007 J. D. Drew numbers. The problem is, I don't think those numbers are a good use of $12-13 million a year. It's weird, Bobby Abreu 2007 numbers are close to Jose Guillen 2007 numbers, but nobody wants to pay Jose Guillen anything. Matt Murton has half a chance to put up some permutation of an .814 OPS. I don't like long committments and pricey ones to players that don't look like great. And compare Fukudome with Hideki Matsui. Slap hitters like Ichiro and Kaz adjust well, but non slap hitters like Hideki Matsui have a transition period. Also, other things are in play with Johjima (has to adjust to catching as well and is on the wrong side of 30) and Iwamura (was injured most of the year). Fukudome is a superior hitter to both, but probably not as good as Matsui. My end conclusion is the same as yours though. I don't think the $ that would be needed would provide the marginal upgrade over Murton to justify. Fukudome could probably play center, but unless we are trading Pie, I don't know why we'd be looking for a long term replacement there.

As realistic as ARod or Bonds. Hasn't Johan said he wants out? I'm really surprised how confident everyone is with the rotation. Hill's results could easily improve considering his peripherals, but: -Lilly had a career year in many respects. Will he have a 174/55 K/BB ratio again? -Marquis' post all-star ERA was 5.73 -Z was up and down all year. Unless his BB/9 drastically improves, shouldn't we expect more of the same? -Marshall should have kept the #5 spot, but as of now that's up in the air. A back end of the rotation with Marquis and ??? has me concerned. Our farm system does not have the high quality talent to get Santana. Thats why hes not realistic. ARod and Bonds would only take $. We don't know whats going on with the sale, so budget is still in the air. Hendry thinks it will be a bit more than last year and at least the same, but even to bring everyone back, with escalating contracts, payroll will be higher. Someone like Tejada or Renteria are realistic options.

Why wouldn't he? Because he'll be 33-34? He pretty much hit his averages last year, despite a terrible start. Even scored a career high in runs. Look at his numbers in 2007, they were right around the median for his career. Well if you are measuring his performance by runs scored, then I don't know what to tell you except for the fact that he doesn't exactly have 100% control over that. Yes, this will be Abreu's 34 yr old season, typically players decline at this age, and frankly hes already started the decline. He hasn't posted an IsoP over 200 nor an OPS over 908 since 2004 (his career averages). Last year they were 162 and 814. Not exactly near his career average. Abreu is a fine player, don't get me wrong. But to expect him to perform like he did at his peak (99-02) is just foolish. Hes not that player anymore. However, he'd still be a premier FA on the marketplace and would command a salary in 7 digits for multiple years. Bottom line, he won't be 7 digits better than Matt Murton.

Baldelli would be a good gamble. The DRays outfield is set with Crawford, Upton, and Young for 2008. Baldelli could DH, but at this point, I think they are fed up with the uncertainty. We should be able to get him for a decent pitching prospect. Hes due 2.25M in 2008 and 6M (4M buyout) next.

This part I'm not so sure I agree with. He still has to find a way to make sure he gets the most run production and run prevention for his dollar. I would not be surprised in the least if he has people on his staff who compile statistics on more than just OBP and OPS, you know? That stuff fits with the SABR community quite effectively. True. Let me express it another way. The saber community looks for value on the playing field. Who can give you the most value for the amount of playing time that they are in? Beane looks at it the same way, but slightly slanted. Who can give the most value player on the playing field relative to the market? At the current time, saber principles are still not used by a majority of major league teams. Therefore, players that are valuable on the playing field are sometimes undervalued in the market, and Beane has picked up a lot of those types of players. If sabermetric principles become much more common on major league ballclubs though, then the players who are valued now who sabermetric people say are way overrated (players like Juan Pierre, for example) will suddenly become not nearly as valued. Several of his interviews would indicate that Beane has absolutely no problem with going with a lineup that would be both average and speed driven with little power and not as much OBP, and if those players suddenly became bargains he would happily pick them up. He would still consider that to be a good team in that scenario, while the saber community would most likely conclude that the team doesn't have nearly the same value. That's where I believe the two split, although their premise is both similar and in two related areas. Sabermetrics goal is not to undervalue Pierre, but rather appropriately value Pierre. Beane mixes the value of economics and sabermetrics as he has a limited amount of payroll.

Yes, Kemp + Kershaw > Hill/Marmol/Pie/Murton Our ultimate goal is to put the best team on the field. Yes, the NL Central will be weak, but the Brewers are going to be better. Who is this "#1" starter you are speaking of. Santana is not a realistic option.

The only things he did last year that are on your list are score over 100 and knock in over 100 and he was on the Yankees which helped. I definitely think Murton will be able to compete with the numbers Abreu puts up for the remainder of his career. He'll probably never be as good as Abreu was during his prime, but Abreu is past his prime. Those things I listed are just about Abreu's career averages. You can expect something in the neighborhood. He and Murton aren't really comparable statistic/ability wise - but Murton isn't a terrible option for RF (depending on what the Cubs want to spend). Abreu would be a GIANT improvement for the Cubs RF situation. BUT after a little more research - he really isn't as dangerous against LHP, and the Cubs need to improve against LHP. And why on God's green earth would you think Abreu will perform at his career averages in 2008 and beyond?

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you. Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui. Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it. So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect? Because Japan is essentially AAAA. Some guys are AAAA players and that is where their ceiling lies. Others are able to adapt to a higher level of competition and succeed. Not every player that does well in the minors or Japan is going to do well in the majors. However, that does not mean that everyone who does well is going to fail when they take the next step. What you are essentially saying is that since Jason Dubois did well in AAA but failed in the majors then we shouldn't expect Felix Pie to succeed. Its a fallacy in logic. No its not. It is a lot easier to take the risk with Pie because, relatively, he isn't making any money. Can't say the same for these high profile FA from Japan. Yes it is. Its the same thing as if a team was making a deal with the cubs back when Dubois was on the team. They could have exchanged a lot of value for a Pie or a little value for a Dubois. Whether you are talking in terms of players or dollars, the fact is that Tuffy Rhodes while putting up good numbers in the same league does not project to have anywhere near the value that Fukudome does. Hence, if you wanted to sign Tuffy Rhodes, you could for a ST invite, but you'd have to give up more value for Fukudome. As Meph stated, there is a risk/reward balance that you have to assume. But that is not just limited to guys coming from another hemisphere. There is a risk/reward in signing Bobby Abreu too (and anyone for that matter). Risk/reward is a much different conversation though than stating, well Player A sucked in the majors and he dominated League X and Player B dominated that same league, so Player B is going to suck in the majors. Thats the fallacy.

Who is CubbieMan? The Cubs' version of GreenMan? You'd have to be on acid to think that Theriot is solid.

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you. Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui. Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it. So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect? Because Japan is essentially AAAA. Some guys are AAAA players and that is where their ceiling lies. Others are able to adapt to a higher level of competition and succeed. Not every player that does well in the minors or Japan is going to do well in the majors. However, that does not mean that everyone who does well is going to fail when they take the next step. What you are essentially saying is that since Jason Dubois did well in AAA but failed in the majors then we shouldn't expect Felix Pie to succeed. Its a fallacy in logic.

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you. Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

His contract ends before he becomes a 5/10.

Bah, beat me to it... I love Abreu, but thats more for what he previously did than what hes going to do in the future. Hes essentially regressed to a bit better version of Murton. Abreu hasn't IsoP'ed over 200 since 2004. Its going to be hard to match the upgrade you could realistically get at SS by upgrading in the OF. It would require a Bonds/Dunn/A. Jones.

"Piniella shares yankee blood with Rivera" That pretty much made me stop reading right there.

Um, this was your question So, yeah it kinda proves exactly what you are asking.

I didn't see anything in there about increasing OBP, so until then, he's got a ways to go. He's had a lot of quotes over the last year where he mentions about how he wants to increase the teams OBP, in addition to the fact that when he sent Pie down he was quoted as the one thing he wanted Pie to work on was plate discipline. It may not have come into fruition on the roster yet (which ultimately is what matters if Hendry wants to keep his job) but Hendry's quotes from the first of the year on to that subject have been dramatically different from previous years. I do agree that this article was very nice for him. For example, he was asked the question about situational hitting where it would have been very easy to simply agree with the question but instead he made sure to disagree with it. He showed faith in some of his young players like Hill and Soto, and everything in the article indicated that he's taking the whole season as more important than the small 3 game playoff sample. All of those were criticisms of Hendry in the past both in his actions and his words (making too many decisions because of small samples, no faith in young players, focusing on the wrong things) and it's nice to see that his words have changed. Hopefully he'll show this offseason that his actions have continued to change as well. It was a nice article, but I am amazed by posters who dislike Hendry making a big deal about what he didn't say. He didn't say Pie would start in CF, he didn't say tha Soto was absolutely the starter for 2008, he didn't say anything about improving the OBP, etc. It seems to me that Soto and Pie playing regularly is a decision that the manager makes and not the GM. As for the OBP, it might improve with an off season acquisition or possibly with additional coaching by Gerald Perry. But its the GMs job to decide whether or not to go out an acquire someone, so yeah hes important in the decision as to how much time the young guys get.

I would love some background on Yu Darvish, because that is so not a Japanese surname. Meph did a write up on him and a couple other (I don't remember which forum), but hes half Iranian IIRC. He let up like 129 hits in 207 innings or something insane like that.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but looking at the parks where Jackson put up his best numbers it looks like it's not totally equal. To the other guy, actually Murton is 7 months older than Jackson and was only drafted 13 spots below him. How many top 100 prospect lists was Jackson on and how many were Murton on?

I don't understand how you can jump to those wild conclusions. As I said, Wuertz's flies under the radar because hes not used in close and late situations. Typically relievers who consistantly have leverage indexes around 1.0 (this year it was .86) aren't ones that are highly sought after. I realize that is a product of how the cubs have used him and not a reflection of how good he is, but thats exactly my point.

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun. If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

Especially if their team was comprise only of Jews and Indians.

Nice jab there, Bruce.

Because of his SLG? I've got to disagree. Because he was one of the better hitters on the team.

I'd be interested to hear why. I think he'll end up somewhere in 2003-2004 production for the next 3 years with an average defense before he starts a real decline. 800+ OPS out of CF is really good, but I don't think he'll be worth the long term commitment that he'll be certain to receive from someone. He certainly isn't really as bad as his 2007 campaign, but I don't think you can count on him as a consistant >20% HR/FB type of guy.

Tejada isn't ARod, but it's not like he doesn't walk. The way the Cubs can fix their offense is by getting significant improvements at their worst positions, and SS was their worst position, along with C, last year. Tejada and Soto could easily eclipse the production from their respective positions, and, barring major setbacks elsewhere, that would significantly improve the offense. You'd probably be able to talk about a top 5 lineup at that point. If you are getting top 5 pitching and top 5 hitting, you are going to have some nice success. I agree. If Tejada can rebound even a little, which he should, his numbers will destroy what you would expect from Theriot or Cedeno. Keep in mind, he did miss a month with a broken wrist. Even if he doesn't regain all of his power, he should still be able to put up an .820-.830 OPS, will Theriot or Cedeno do that, or even come close? I'm not saying I think the Cubs should do whatever it takes to get Tejada. But, if he can be had( or Rentaria for that matter), at a good deal, it would be ridiculous for the Cubs to not at least consider it. Especially when SS is that glaring of a hole in the lineup. If you're worried about his D, it's not like you'd be going from a GG'er to the worst in the league. There's certainly not a big enough difference to warrant not getting him for that reason. Actually, Tejada's power was fine after he came back from the injury. His IsoP was just 116 before and 183 after. He was fairly consistanly slightly above 200 during his peak. I look at that as a positive.