RynoRules

Lots of folks are talking outta both sides of their mouths these days: "I'd rather sign FAs than trade our prospects...but don't spend so much money!"

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do...... The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close. Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7 Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6 OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc... The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time. Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry. I'll tell you what they should do: don't overpay for the likes of Ryan, Koskie, and Vernon Wells such that you devote the lion's share of your proportionally small payroll to them. They should develop their young players and give them a chance (a la the A's) and then add the supporting pieces via trades and FAs. This approach requires patience, which the A's have had w/ Beane and the Twins have had with Terry Ryan, and thus they win. This signing makes no sense for a team like the Jays. They are on the cusp of nothing. Closers can't help you unless you have something to close.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do...... The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close. Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7 Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6 OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc...

Your location says it all...

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 My point was only to refute Meat's argument; I certainly realize the differences between the two franchises. My point is only that the notion that they have to overpay b/c they haven't won a WS since 1993 is as silly as saying the Cubs have to do the same b/c they have not won since 08'.

Yup. Here's Ryan v. Dempster, and remember that Demp began 2005 in the rotation: http://www.baseballreference.com/r/ryanb.01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dempsry01.shtml Anyone have Dempster's closer-only stats?

That's what shook me - 3 years made more sense. The spending is over the top so far this year, and it ain't just Hendry. Well, Wagner was offered 4 years, and Ryan is younger (with far less mileage on his arm), so I guess thats not too surprising either. It's free agency and there are a ton of teams with money to spend and fans to please by bringing in the bigger names. So its okay to spend if you bring in a "bigger name". Just clarifying. If Hendry had done this deal instead of the Eyre and Howry deals, you would have been okay with it b/c Ryan is the "bigger name"?

Meat - you have been killing Hendry for overpaying. Wanna dish on Riccardi now? Almost 10 a year for 5 years, my good man. 8-[ Actually, I think this is an ok deal. Ryan is 29 (30 next season). His WHIP, K/BB, K/9 are outstanding. Eyre and Howry (i like howry) are nowhere close, of course they aren't paid close to 9.4M/year either (combined 7.7M/year). Riccardi is like Hendry right now - they both had around $30M to spend at the start of the offseason. Hendry spent about 8M/year for 3 years on veteran pen arms that aren't likely to be worth the money for the life of their contracts. Riccardi overspent on a dominant younger pen arm for 5 years. Ryan won't earn his money the last one or two years of his contract, but he'll be great in the first 3. I don't love either move, but Riccardi is dealing with bringing premiere talent to a losing franchise, so it is expected that he will have to overpay. Riccardi's first step as GM was to bring in talent no one ever heard of on the cheap. Now that he has his cheap base he can spend on the big FA or two (the owner planned to open his pocket book if Riccardi showed him the necessary results, which he did). Trading away prospects for top players would undermine what he did in the first place. You will overpay in free agency. Hendry just does it with the wrong players. The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs. I think you are wrong about this signing. Riccardi overspent here, just like he did last season on Koskie (though Ryan is a better player). Ryan is a good pitcher, but that is big-time cash, which, IMO, he has not earned. The fact that the mkt is thin earned it for him. Here are his career stats: http://www.baseballreference.com/r/ryanb.01.shtml He's been a closer for one year, and just got a Rivera / Wagner type deal. Its not that he isn't an effective and valuable picther, its that he isn't what that contract makes him out to be, IMO.

That's what shook me - 3 years made more sense. The spending is over the top so far this year, and it ain't just Hendry.

Bingo

Well, I guess they had to pay more b/c it is Toronto. I think they had $30M to spend this offseason. Giles and Burnett are still possibilities. It's only $9.4M per year. :lol: The years is what surprised me, although he is a very good pitcher. I'd rather have him at 47M/5 than eyre and howry at a combined 23M/3 (7.67M/year), but that dream is gone. :roll: Wow.

Meat - you have been killing Hendry for overpaying. Wanna dish on Riccardi now? Almost 10 a year for 5 years, my good man. 8-[

The moral of the story is that the media reportgs are accurate and should be trusted. :wink: I think alot of this is posturing, as usual, and we won't know a lot on the Giles front for some time.

You're exactly right. Neifi is a quality player and honestly, I have absolutely no problem giving him 2.5M - I said about a million times in other threads - who else is there to sign if not Neifi, I didnt get ONE reply. Hm, maybe instead of 2/5 for Neifi we should get Graf for 3/9? that makes more sense? Neifi's brutal. It's easier to count players we wouldn't rather have. First and foremost though, we don't need a backup middle infielder with Cedeno and Fontenot both ready. But if for some reason we HAVE to start Cedeno, D'Angelo Jimenez was available at last check, and is roughly infinitely better than Neifi. Fontenot's D isn't nearly as good, he's not a veteran off the bench, and Jiminez was let go due to awful personal behavior. Fontenot's O is also much better than Neifi, and I could care less if the player on the bench is young, old, veteran, choirboy, jerk, or unborn fetus as long as they produce. What's your basis for that argument? His AA nos.?

There's no reason both can't be done, and in all probability, will be done. We've done the $$ analysis several times in other threads, the $$ are there. I was one of the first to applaud Hendry for solving this long-standing weakness in our bullpen--notice I no longer have the "Fire Hendry" part of my sig? And I still applaud the move. Now, if the offseason ends and he has left RF and CF and leadoff unsolved, THEN we have a serious problem, but I've seen nothing so far this offseason that suggests Hendry doesn't intend on addressing each area, and rather forcefully. We've been at the top of the list in discussions regarding Pierre and Furcal, we are usually mentioned in discussions of Austin Kearns and Kevin Mench and most promisingly, Bobby Abreu. This is progress, no? Give the man a chance, I think he's having a strong offseason so far other than the ridiculous Neifi thing--which we all know is driven by Dusty, anyways. Don im glad to see some else is waiting to see some other chips to fall before readying the pitch forks. Ohman Eyre Williamson Howry Dempster Wuertz/Nova/Guzman/Williams/Hill/JVB/Rusch Zambrano Wood Prior Maddux granted some of those bullpen arms will be dealt or slotted into the fifth spot maybe but I for one am excited to think about what kind of run this staff from top to bottom can put together when heathly. There is still money to spend and a lot of big bats that could be on the move Dunn, Abreu, Ramirez, Giles, Floyd ect. I still find it odd that AJ Burnett name gets tossed around by Hendry a few times and his supposed friendship with Dempster. I am betting on him being on the Cubs staff along with a big bat and Pierre/Lofton/Bradley in center with Furcal at short. Yes I keep telling myself the Cubs payroll will be around 115 million. I'm on the WGN w/ Don and Neuby. Give the man a chance; its not a terrible start, and Mr. Miles has implied that JH will be seeking out Mr. Gillick soon...(Abreu!!!!! :D )

Yeah, I am not debating his overall importance. I am simply stating that to equate Podsednik with players who "suck" (like Neifi and Macias, for example) is ridiculous. He had a nice first half last year, a bad second. Doesn't mean that he sucks. You make it sound like I am equating him to an HOFer. As far as my use of 04', 05' and 98' as examples, note that the Cubs were at or near the top of the NL in HRs each of those years, but made the playoffs once. This team has been all about the HR for far too long, dating far back into my youth.

Do you think the Delgado trade or Thome trade can give us any new insight as to what it might take to land Abreu in terms of players and money? I think the Beckett trade might actually be more instructive. I sense that Hendry might have to be willing to part with 2 of our top 7 or 8 prospects. If so, I'd want the Phils to eat 40-50% of the contract.

Would living by the long ball be so bad if you had decent OBP on your team? The A's are proof that station to station baseball wins games. Sit and wait for the 3 run jack. Are you implying that small ball produces more offense? As far as 2004 goes, I'd put failing to make the playoffs on Hawkins, Dusty, and the choke artists down the stretch. 2005's disaster wasn't a result of living and dying by the long ball. you can blame it on a lot of things like lack of OBP, injuries, Dusty, a shaky pen,... can you give me some examples of how living and dying by the long ball hurt us?did Cincy live and die by the long ball last year? how effective was their offense? Yes, I can: 2004 and 2005...and 1998...and wait I'll think of a few more... This franchise, for whatever reason, has always been fascinated by the longball to the exclusion of more important things. This convo began by my pointing out that Posednik does not suck. To say that he does is a gross overstatement.

Abreu? HECK YES!!!!! :D :D =P~

Interesting read. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=klapisch_bob&id=2235021

winning %? You should stop reading Van [expletive]. I'm glad Hendry is upgrading a weakness, I wish he wouldn't overspend to do it. And one more thing, it is an upgrade on paper only. This entire plan may well blow up in his face. Relivers not named Gagne and Wagner are a fickle lot. If that happens, then we will have a new GM to kick around. Nothing ventured...

Could this be anymore depressing? :cry:

I totally disagree for one simple reason - Perry doesn't take himself 1/10 as seriously as Rogers takes himself. Perry also is pretty smart, I definately don't think he's some sort of goon. Whoever had that Podsednik comment, you're a hypocrite. About 99.999999% of us advocated that Lee for Podsednik trade. [-( Podsednik sucks. Thanks to people like Joe Morgan and Co., some individuals actually think he's good. He doesn't "suck" anymore than Hendry is a "moran". He is overrated in terms of being labled an All-Star, just like Hendry has made some good moves, and some not-so-good moves.