Diffusion

For a 16 team league I think that's a spectacular draft.

Ooh, Bajenaru got traded. He's old now, turns 28 this month, which is what happens when you're a college draft pick and lose time to TJS, but this guy's got good stuff - low nineties heavy sinking fastball, good slider, complimented with changeup and a "slutter" (slider/cutter mix pitch) - and an even better minor league resumé, all out of the bullpen... Career: 255.2 IP, 178 H, 15 HR, 102 BB, 309 K, 2.46 ERA 2004-05: 124 IP, 76 H, 9 HR, 42 BB, 150 K, 1.45 ERA Keep an eye out for him. Good trade for the Diamondbacks I say, they don't really need Cintron anyway.

Want to read "Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning"?

A useful exercise is usually to try predicting who other people will keep, and who they won't, and see what you think will be available in the draft.

The spot is filled. Thanks guys and sorry to those of you that were too late.

First ballot or tenth ballot, he will get in. I'm not saying he deserves it. I'm just saying he will get in. I'll say he deserves it. If he'd retired after 1998 instead of cheated, his career numbers of... 1898 G, 6621 AB, 1364 R, 1917 H, 411 HR, 1216 RBI, 1357 BB, 1050 K, 445 SB 130 CS (77%), .290/.411/.556... ...would have easily been HOF worthy. You're still talking about the only player in the history of the game with 400 HR and 400 SB, you're talking about a guy that ranks in the thirty in the history of the game in OBP and SLG, you're talking about an 8 time All-Star, 3 time MVP, 8 time Gold Glove winner, 7 time Silver Slugger, 5 time league leader in OPS. If he'd carried on naturally for a few years, since retiring at 33 is unusal, he'd easily have made his way into the top twenty in runs and RBI, would have made it to 500 HR and 500 SB, maybe made a few more All-Star appearances, won a few more Gold Gloves and so on. His rate numbers may have dipped a bit, but the guy still would have been an absolute lock. You can't erase from the record what Bonds did before 1999. Yes, Bonds cheated, and his numbers since 1999 are ridiculous... 832 G, 2519 AB, 714 R, 825 H, 297 HR, 637 RBI, 954 BB, 384 K, 61 SB 11 CS (85%), .328/.515/.756... ...and perhaps the most damning indication of his guilt. You're talking about a guy that, from age 34 onwards, became many times over a better player than he'd ever been before. That just doesn't happen. As you get into your thirties, you decline. Bonds deserves everything that he has brought upon himself through his cheating, every single little bit of it. But what you cannot deny is that cheating has occured throughout the history of the game, and that there are cheats in the HOF. The HOF can't retain any credibility if it excludes Bonds from the HOF without throwing out every single person already in there that also cheated. And you can include Babe Ruth and his trick bat in that. The other thing you can't deny is that Bonds was a product of his era, an era in which almost undisputedly tens of dozens if not hundreds of players cheated, because drugs all of a sudden became easily obtainable and they were literally allowed to get away with it by other players, managers, the commissioner's office, the player's union, and so on. There was absolutely no regulation whatsoever, there were no questions asked, and anyone that did no anything tacitly agreed upon "I won't tell if you don't". You'd better believe that if such an era had existed 50 years earlier, some of our darling HOFs would have got caught up in it. Baseball has a history of seeking advantage through any means possible, and Bonds is just part of that. And you'd better believe that Bonds isn't the only HOF-calibre player of the steroids era that ever took them. If the HOF is going to exclude Bonds, it needs to go after every single player over whom there's reasonable doubt with the same zealousness, the same perverse satisfaction in their downfall, and it needs to get them and exclude them from the HOF too, starting with Mark McGwire this year. If the HOF wants to say "anyone we've already inducted is safe, but from now on cheating isn't a part of the game", then they've got to have that actually mean something besides that Bonds doesn't go to the hall. Because they can't make him the fall guy for the entire era just because he was caught. There's no moral difference between cheating and getting caught and cheating and getting away with it. There's just no practical way that the HOF can keep Bonds out while maintaining any credibility whatsoever. Then again, the HOF have never been practical, credibility has never been their middle name, and I doubt the middle of a witch hunt is any time for them to turn over a new leaf. I feel sorry for Barry frankly. I respect and appreciate the player he used to be, I marvel at the player he became, for he was a joy to watch regardless of the way he achieved it, I despise him as a cheat and I think very little of him as a human being. He should get what he deserves, but what he's getting has long gone way beyond that. Baseball is attributing every ounce of guilt owed the entire steroids era to him, and he's not the only guilty party in this, not at all.

Bonds is just the tip of the iceberg.

Yeh, Nathan was clearly in early Spring mode. Not his usual velocity, not his usual control.

Griffey third and playing CF? Utley ninth behind Schneider and Winn? Schneider and Winn?

17) The Cubs being one of the four teams from the NL Central that is contracted, they lose 83 less games than they did in 2005.

Hi Ron, What do you think of Carlos Marmol's changeup? Is it good enough now, or could it perhaps be good enough in the future, that he could stick as a starter in the long-term?

19) When Prior goes down with a fluke injury, and Wood goes down with a serious injury, Sean Marshall and Angel Guzman save the day by each winning 20 games with ERAs below two. However, both are controversially overlooked in the Cy Young, finishing second and third to Carlos Zambrano, who posts a 5.98 ERA due to Dusty Baker's finally ruining his pitching arm. Explaining their decision, the Baseball Writers state that the reason for their controversial Cy Young selection was Zambrano's 21 wins, which is more than 20. Z's 21 wins are explained by him hitting .472/.693/.868 at the plate using just his left arm.

...don't get much privacy?

Do you think Neifi is a horrible backup middle infielder? I don't think he is. Yes. What do you expect from a backup middle infielder? His VORP was 6.6 (OK, not good) with ++ defense. I'm not sure I agree that his defense is "++", some defensive metrics(PMR) rate him down the chain a little bit, certainly not enough to make up for his atrocious offense. Speaking of which, I expect a little more than one of the worst hitters of the generation on my team's roster. IF that type of production is inevitable, there's good reason to avoid Neifi He's been sucking for a long time, at least with someone who is younger(whether that be a prospect or another player of Neifi's caliber in his prime years) you have the potential of offensive improvement. Neifi's a known black hole, and at his age he could get worse. He's also overpaid, and is a crappy veteran with a manager who loves him for dumb reasons("he saved us", pitcher chats on the mound where pitchers probably want to punch him in the face, etc.) and will use him even beyond the role he shouldn't be in. 1) Admittedly defensive metrics are still in their infancy however most I've seen rate Nefei as a very good SS. 2) Nefei's contract and manager isn't his problem - it's Hendry's. Again, what do you expect from a backup middle infielder? I told you. Someone who isn't an offensive abomination, and if we are forced to accept a defensive oriented guy who can't hit, at least get someone younger with the potential to give you something, anything at the offensive end. The rest that is out of his control was tacked on to the end to why he's particularly bad for this team. What should the minimum stat line be for an avg fielding backup SS? Not trolling, just curious. Tough question, because the pool of players you're looking at is diverse. When looking at a prospect, I'd say he'd need pretty good minor league offensive numbers. Nothing outstanding, even for the position, but numbers that would probably net them a starting role if they repeat them in the bigs. Mike Fontenot(.272/.377/.430 at Iowa last year), although he doesn't play shortstop, is a decent example of such a player, although even someone with say a .350/.400(OBP/SLG) would work depending on their full body of work(physical tools, fielding ability, full minor league history). In the case of a more journeyman type player, Neifi sets an appropriate baseline, as very few players find themselves on base as little as he does. Again, not to say blindly dump Neifi for a guy that has similar numbers but is a couple years younger, the other factors previously mentioned play a role. Also, for the record, I advocated going after Furcal/Lugo/etc this offseason, because I wanted Cedeno in Neifi's role this year. That gets Cedeno more major league time and he is still able to help the big league club, then he either moves to 2B(if you get Furcal and Walker departs to FA) or takes the full time SS role(Lugo leaves for FA). It also keeps dead weight like Neifi off the club. But the Cubs are stuck with Neifi, and the rest of the nightmarish moves Hendry made this offseason, so I guess I can dream that Neifi goes crazy and gets himself moved. Oh, come on, Tiger, get real. Firstly, Neifi's defence is excellent. Please. Right, Neifi's bat is next to useless. However, he is only "one of the worst hitters of his generation" by measure of a cumulative metric that penalises him for having been miscast all too frequently as a starting shortstop, which is not a consideration relevant to discussions of him as a backup middle infielder. You seem to be under some misguided illusion that you could plug any random minor leaguer into his spot and get superior production. What an absolute nonsense. Any young middle infielder that can be reasonably expected to immediately provide some kind of positive offensive contribution and defensive value equivalent to Neifi's goes by the name of "a very good prospect". The Cubs presently only have one of this type in their entire system, and his name is Ronny Cedeno. Rightly he's been given the starting role, ahead of Neifi Perez I might add. He's not been relegated to a backup role where he'd see little playing time and potentially stagnate. Burying a player that clearly has the potential to in future contribute in a greater capacity is among the best ways to make sure he never does. Veterans serve purposes. They can fill spots that you don't want young players in. You don't want young players with potential left to rot on the bench, so you use veterans without potential in those spots. Neifi Perez, if he was used correctly, would do that job just fine. You want to look around the league at what better backup middle infield options there are. Certainly no-one else in the Cub system save perhaps Ryan Theriot has even the remotest chance of outperforming Neifi this year if they were given the job of backup middle infielder over him. Whether Theriot could is open to debate. With the exception of one 53 game stint in 2003, he's always been about two years old for his league, he's also never played above Double-A, yet his career minor league numbers still read a very unimpressive .269/.353/.336. Certainly, his control of the strikezone has been extremely impressive, with a career 212/213/1923 BB/K/PA, but whether that'd translate against significantly more advanced pitching is very debatable, and there's no question that he doesn't have any power whatsoever. His defence is very good, and he's a decent baserunner. The only thing Theriot has over Neifi is his salary, and that Dusty would presumably be less inclined to use him inappropriately. However, neither of those things reflect on Neifi's ability as a backup middle infielder. The first, the issue of money, is a product of Hendry's sheer stupidity; the second, the issue of playing time, is a product of Dusty's. Now that the contract is signed and the budget set, there's nothing we can do about the money this year at least (short of trading Neifi without having to eat some of his salary, which is unlikely considering that every single team in the majors besides perhaps the Washington Nationals has absolutely no need of a starting shortstop called Neifi Perez or a backup middle infielder earning that kind of money), and so continuing to whine about it not only misses the point, but is also somewhat annoyingly repetitive. As for playing time, a much more effective solution than getting rid of Neifi Perez would be to get rid of Dusty Baker, or at least to have someone scream at him until he gets it.

Fred, Novoa walked 1 in the inning.

It was the giving away of Nolasco and the acquistion of Pierre that annoyed me about that trade, not so much the Pinto and Mitre elements.

it was dumb, but he did say "to hurt his chance at making the big leagues" which he probably didn't Oh yeh, that was the quote. I actually had forgotten the end of it by the time I written down the beginning of it. There's really not that much of a difference though. A big part of prospect status is the likelihood of the player making the big leagues. And Brenly was talking right before that about how certain publications had dropped Dopirak down their list, and that that wasn't a reflection on Dopirak's prospect status, but much more a reflections on the prospects status of the others who had leapfrogged him. So he effectively said the quote I wrongly attributed to him, just not in as many words.

"I don't think Dopirak did anything last year to hurt his prospect status" --Bob Brenly

Didn't like Ryu's fastball today that much.

Nice K, slider on 1-1 and curve on 1-2, both nasty.

JK Ryu in to pitch.

Great hook for the K. Threw another one to the last batter of the inning, wasn't quite as good. Still.

What do you guys think, quick gun? Marshall hitting 93mph and Hill 94mph at this stage in ST is very encouraging if it's true.

Two quick outs. Marshall has a nice downward thing going on.

PM me for details.