Diffusion

Vlad, Manny, Tejada, Peavy, Felix and one of your choice. The first three may be getting on in years, but they're quite literally the best at their positions, and the same simply can't be said for Bay or Crawford. Peavy and Felix you simply have to keep, I don't think you have a choice in the matter. Whoever you pick sixth you can't really go that wrong with: I'd probably go with Pedro myself, but I'm not the biggest Bay or Crawford fan, and you could maybe justify Carpenter over all three of them.

He only had 143 AB+BB+HBP last year with a runner on first though.

East SP Pedro, Smoltz, Hudson, Willis, Patterson C McCann, 1B Delgado, 2B Utley, 3B Wright, SS Rollins, LF Cabrera, CF Beltran, RF Bobby Abreu (DH A.Jones) CL B.Wagner Central SP Zambrano, Prior, Oswalt, Sheets, Carpenter C Barrett, 1B Pujols, 2B Weeks, 3B Ramirez, SS JJ Hardy, LF Dunn, CF Edmonds, RF Berkman (DH Lee) CL Lidge West SP Peavy, Schmidt, Webb, Lowe, Francis C Piazza, 1B Helton, 2B Kent, 3B Tracy, SS Furcal, LF Bonds, CF Cameron, RF Giles (DH Drew) CL Gagne The West is rubbish. I think the East has the better lineup, Central the better pitching, overall it's close.

You are so wrong. Getting on base is essential to scoring runs. Why don't you check Soriano's road stats as well. And the fact that Murton makes $9 million less than Soriano does matter. RBIs are not a real stat. So Soriano at 30 HRs and a .250 average and no walks makes him worse than Burnitz offensively and terrrible defensively. Soriano would be a disaster. Don't be bamboozled by meaningless numbers. How was Texas 15th in obp and 3rd in runs?? I don't know, maybe, just maybe, it was because they led the world in slugging percentage, the second of the two big stats, and maybe playing in a really cosy hitter's park also helped, and maybe you're just not going to get a completely perfect correlation when the sample size is just one year.

Edited.

Because Sheets isn't coming off surgery, maybe? Because Sheets' injury history relates to his back and an ear infection, and nothing to do with his shoulder or elbow? Because Sheets is less likely to run into the ground by his manager? Because Sheets has actually been healthy and at his best within the last 21 months?

Finally! Some love for the Pirates! :-) Picking Duke over Sheets and Oswalt. Seriously?

NL, Team PA per Lineup Position, 2005 1: 760 2: 741 3: 725 4: 708 5: 693 6: 674 7: 655 8: 636 9: 616 But, of course, players tend not to get every single PA for their relative lineup spot. They're rested, they get injured, they're pinch-hit for, etc... Number of players that got more than 600 PA last year: 85 Of which rookies: 1 (Willy Taveras) Last time a rookie got more than 600 PA under Dusty Baker: Erm, hasn't happened in the last six years, maybe longer. I think it unlikely that Murton will get 600 PA. I think it even more unlikely he'll get 600 AB.

My numbers are the same as your numbers, only I'm using 600 plate appearances instead of 600 at-bats. Personally I think it unlikely that Murton gets either. The size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.33 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 PA for him to hit 30 HR this year in 600 PA. If you want to look at things from a HR per 100 AB perspective, instead of a HR per 100 PA perspective... 2003: 2 HR in 189 AB (1.05 HR per 100 AB) 2004: 13 HR in 455 AB (2.86 HR per 100 AB) 2005: 16 HR in 487 AB (3.29 HR per 100 AB) So, if we took a full season before to be about 600 PA, then that equates, for Murton, based on his entire minor league career, to about 525 or so AB. 30 HR in 525 AB is 5.71 HR per 100 AB. Going all the maths, the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.63 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 AB for him to hit 30 HR this year in 525 AB. Giving Murton 600 AB now, the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 3.98 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 AB for him to hit 30 HR this year in 600 AB. I wouldn't call such scouting terms abstract and meaningless. They certainly have value, but there are limitations. Much the same as statistics have value, but also limitations.

I suppose I can understand the Weeks love, even though his BA was .239 last year and he had a sub-.400 SLG. But Hardy??? The guy that carried a BA under .200 into July? Yes, the very same. Felipe Lopez really doesn't impress me. He's downright awful with the glove and I've got doubts as to whether the bat he showed in 2005 is for real. He's a career .279/~.330/.430 hitter in the minors, and even after last year he's only a career .257/.322/.421 hitter in the majors. Perhaps the breakout was for real, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see him relapse. And even if he doesn't, his defence is still that bad. The other shortstops in the division are JJ Hardy, Ronny Cedeno, Adam Everett, David Eckstein and Jack Wilson. And, I'm sorry, but I like JJ Hardy the most out of them.

Seriously...what's not to like? I'd take a 961 OPS in full season #2 from anyone in our organization, especially if that followed a 908 OPS in full season #1. My concerns with Jason Bay, ultimately, boil down to him striking out so awfully often (300 times in 1286 PA career). The only reason that this so far hasn't been a concern for his average (.295 career) is because he's managed to amass a ridiculous number of hits on balls in play (.351 average on balls in play career). I'm sceptical as to whether that can possibly last. High average on balls in play hitters tend to be, in order of significance, prone to hitting lots of line drives, fast enough to beat out significant numbers of infield hits and/or big time power hitters. Certain ballparks can also make a very big difference. Now Bay doesn't hit a lot of line drives (.222 last year versus a major league average of about .205, but .174 in 2004), he's not a speedster, and though he does hit for power, that doesn't really explain how he's pretty much managed to outhit all of baseball in the average on balls in play category over the last two years. He plays in a park that at least on the face of it is pretty normal, although I guess that's worth checking out. So, I guess it's possible then that Jason Bay has some special innate skill that's extremely rare, which means that he's actually a lot better even than any of you are giving him credit for (and by that I mean we're talking about the best outfielder in all of baseball period, at least if he's able to stick in centre field). Or perhaps he's heading for something of a fall. Well, not so much a fall as a re-adjustment, because he'd still probably be hitting something like .260/.340/.500, which is pretty good all the same. So it's just I'm wary of the guy, because I think the dropoff is more likely. It always is.

He'll be hard pressed to get 10 in that amount of playing time.

All true. But let's not overstate the nature of these increases... 2003: 2 HR in 227 PA (0.88 HR per 100 PA) 2004: 13 HR in 514 PA (2.53 HR per 100 PA) 2005: 16 HR in 548 PA (2.92 HR per 100 PA) The 2003 numbers aren't really that relevant to be honest. Anyway, hitting 30 HR in a full season (which we'll call 600 PA) would mean hitting 5 HR per 100 PA. So the increase in his HR power would need to be about 5 times as great as the increase in his HR power from 2004 to 2005. And the increase would need to be made while facing much more advanced pitching, a longer season, and so on. So it's not just a stretch, it's an enormous stretch. Statistically. And that's not to mention that Murton doesn't even have a 30 HR physique, a 30 HR swing, a 30 HR anything.

And, over his entire minor league career, he managed just 24 home runs in 1129 plate appearances. So, for his entire professional career, he's hit 31 in 1289 plate appearances. Now, with immediate effect, you want him to double that home run rate over the longest season he'll ever have had facing the best pitching he'll ever have faced? Come on, be realistic about things. While he might in the long term be able to hit 30 home runs in a single season, it's not happening this year. I absolutely guarantee it. And personally I wouldn't be surprised if Murton never hit 30 home runs over his entire career, though I think the best bet is that he does so maybe once or twice and otherwise settles into the high teens to mid twenties.

Maybe that's not out of the question. But .280/25/90 is much more likely.

SP Zambrano, Prior, Oswalt, Sheets, Carpenter C Barrett, 1B Pujols, 2B Weeks, 3B Ramirez, SS JJ Hardy, LF Dunn, CF Edmonds, RF Berkman, DH Lee Not a Jason Bay or Felipe Lopez fan, myself.

The Twins also don't score runs, like, ever, and the Indians only really broke out a bit last year. Not only are the other teams bad offensively, but there's not a hitter's ballpark in sight anymore since they moved the fences at KC. Average runs per team per year over last five years (as long as Buerhle's been a regular): AL Central (exc CWS): 747.7 NL Central (exc CHC): 743.8 Runs scored per team over last three years (as long as Zambrano's been a regular): AL Central (exc CWS): 751.2 NL Central (exc CHC): 752.5 So, like I said, no real adjustment should be made for the fact that Buerhle pitches in the AL while Zambrano pitches in the NL. Therefore, using ERA+ isn't relevant. Using ERA is. And Zambrano wins in that category hands down.

Woah, hold your horses.

Except Corey was early every year.

Third base is a tough to find position? Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Morgan Ensberg, Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez, Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus, Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock, Chone Figgins, Garrett Atkins, Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell even, with Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, Ian Stewart and Andy LaRoche on the way, that's tough to find?

Not that big a Barmes fan myself. Career .285/.341/.422 hitter in the minors while never young for his league (and occasionally old) and playing in hitter friendly environments. Coors will help his numbers, but you really ought to platoon the guy then when he's on the road.

And besides the curveball?

No, but Z turns straight men gay in his own special way. http://ak.imgfarm.com/images/ap/CUBS_SPRING_BASEBALL.sff_AZNH109_20060216145455.jpg

Except for the fact that Zambrano is already better than Buehrle and that he didn't pick a #5. Buehrle vs Zambrano is up to debate. The difference in leagues can skew some of those numbers. You're right. Buerhle has pitched in what over the last few years has been the worst division in baseball. That really needs to be taken into account and held against him. I dont know the stats so if i am wrong i apolozige, but It seems as if The Cell has also been a better hitters park the last few years then Wrigley. Baseball Think Factory says that for 2003-05 the Cell was 1.06 and Wrigley 1.02. So, yeh, but not by that much.

Except for the fact that Zambrano is already better than Buehrle and that he didn't pick a #5. Buehrle vs Zambrano is up to debate. The difference in leagues can skew some of those numbers. You're right. Buerhle has pitched in what over the last few years has been the worst division in baseball. That really needs to be taken into account and held against him.