Interesting article in the Athletic about the Cubs draft, with some good quotes from Dorey etc.. https://theathletic.com/384762/2018/06/07/an-inside-look-at-how-the-cubs-2018-draft-class-came-together/ Show, I hope you're wrong. I think some of your arguments are a little mixed. Seems to me that one argument is: 1. Cubs haven't done well outside of the first round thus far (I agree), so they won't do well outside of the first round in this draft either. 2. A second argument is that have failed with raw prospects before, so will fail with Roederer and Davis. 3. A third is that they didn't draft upside guys. You may well be right. But I think your second argument is the hinge one. I think Wilson is the only $$-HS guy they've signed. Hanneman is another example of a raw guy who didn't work out, but he was college already. The others, Crawfords and the like, those are 3rd-day picks. So to me, it seems like the Cubs record with HS-hitters like Roederer and Davis is pretty much wilson and that's it. I agree, Wilson's been a hopeless failure, and a wasted pick. But I'm not sure failing on one HS pick, and then also some 3rd-day guys, I think that's a small data pool on which to conclude a trend. So I'm optimistic re both Roederer and Davis. I think your 3rd argument is somewhat confusing. You complain that they didn't select upside guys, when to my perspective they took two such in Davis and Roederer. Reading what Dorey said, they were very much looking for upside guys, and ID'd Davis and Roederer as such. So the attempt is clearly there. You've already concluded that their attempts will fail, and you'll probably be correct. (Most 60-80 picks fail, especially HS ones....) But that's a scouting evaluation on your part, I think, (or a scouting failure on their part), more than a strategic failure. If in fact they did fail. My thinking is that although some of their HS guys have failed (Wilson and Sierra), they've had good luck with Gleyber and Eloy and Amara. So I'm not sure it's as well established and conclusive that they will fail to identify and develop teenage hitting prospects. I don't know what to make of Roederer so I didn't actually mention him. I'm not sure how high his ceiling is or how his tools rate when he was fully healthy. I need to find out more info before I make a proclamation on him. Keith Law on Roederer: That doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence... I do count Hannemann as a raw guy who didn't work out even though he went to college. There are definitely parallels between Hannemann and Davis. I know Davis is the better athlete and has a higher upside. Brennen Davis actually has one of the highest ceilings in the entire draft... I just don't think he reaches it or even gets close. I believe Kiley McDaniel mentioned how some scouts were worried his bat was a 30 or 40. I don't count IFAs with amateur draft picks. I'm strictly talking about the draft and the scouts involved with the MLB draft. I don't want to compare Gleyber and Eloy against our draft picks because it creates weird comparisons and we lack a lot of knowledge about how they scout internationally. It's not fair to compare Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber to Gleyber Torres and Miguel Amaya and so on. MLB teams scout those kids at a very young age and come to agreements when they are 14 or 15. Sometimes even younger now... I do totally give credit to the international scouts for doing a great job and signing some top prospects. I think we need to ask UK what he thinks and what other scouts think of the Cubs 2018 draft class. Too early to tell. To grade a draft property, there are 3 components in order of importance: 1) Player development 2) Draftees signed 3) Players selected I don't know their strategy. From what I gathered, they went high contact ratios with hitters with athleticism with raw power potential. Contact rates are key among amateur hitters b/c swing and miss in HS, you're swinging and missing in pro ball. I like their strategy with position players. As far as pitchers, they're obviously collegiate heavy. They have their justifiable reasons, I would like to see more higher ceiling arms that might be more raw but more signable than someone like Rocker. Its fine that want to go safer usually 2-10 (minus Hudson and Little) but throw some 11-40 money on a raw HS pitcher who might go the JUCO route. As much as signability is a negative when they ask too much, the opposite is often ignored. If you get a marginal HS arm that will sign for anything, that increases his value. I remember we drafted a HS kid in the 13th rd and my boss said jokingly, here's 1000.00, he said where do I sign.... We had to tell him to take more. The college players are all pretty safe bets, lower floors/lower ceilings. Minus Artis, I cant see a collegiate player above slot. Maybe Reynolds/Thompson but that'll be easily off-set by earlier picks. The 3 HSers in the top 10 picks and their signings will determine the effectiveness of the draft.