FergieJ31
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Everything posted by FergieJ31
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Cubs wins this series: 1.89 Kerry better round that up to two.
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Good Lord my heart rate is only now coming back to earth. Marmol owes Sori and Fuku a lot of dinners...
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I'm calling DP here.
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Who Do You Want To Win In The Brewers/Phillies Series
FergieJ31 replied to Ski's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yes and with all four going about 15-16 innings. -
Sitting in the LF bleachers, I could clearly see that ball had some bite on it, a hooking drive near the sun. It was a tougher catch than people might realize, but still it was a no-doubt-about-it error -- Brown was right there. Here's a pic of Ronnie when he clanked it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:The_Scream.jpg
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I'll never forget how po'ed Trachsel was. Not only giving up the dinger but watching his infielders high-five Big Mac as he rounded the bases. I didn't blame him either, given that the Cubs were in a thick WC race. My recollection of the time was that the HR race was a tad overblown; I was more interested in the WC race. Some of those Sept games down the stretch were just over-the-top crazy. I don't know how Ronnie lived through that. The Sep 11-13 series against Milw was one of the most dramatic regular season series I've ever watched (the 5 game set vs Stl in 2003 is probably at the top).
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That was your first mistake :-)) Moneyball is excellent but don't mistake it for a book about the importance of OBP. Many ppl miss this point: the book is about maximizing edge in the marketplace of baseball players, where edge is something like expected run production per dollar. OBP was simply the performance measure that Billy Beane discovered was the most undervalued at the time.
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9/5 Winners (Lilly) @ DBR (Arroyo) 6:10 PM CST CSN+
FergieJ31 replied to Ski's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Not sure what you mean ... I don't see anyone here who doesn't understand it. MN is so simple you have to be positively braindead to not understand it. When we're talking about the Cubs playoff MN I argued in another thread that MN is too simple and possibly misleading. It's like looking at the standings and only looking at the Games Back of the team immediately behind you, and ignoring the GB of the next team(s) below. -
That is probably my favorite Bill James article; it gets referenced and discussed every now and then around here. I've mentioned it in a few of my posts over the years. IMO, the number one misuse of baseball statistics is the old "correlation is not causation". But a close second is this one: Absence of evidence is not evidence to the contrary. The fact that sabermetricians have failed to turn up evidence that clutch hitters exist doesn't imply clutch hitters do not exist. Underestimating the Fog describes this very well.
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Well said. This article was about as bad as any I've ever seen, even from Rozner. >> any objective observer could clearly see a player [ARam] who cared more about himself and his stats than anything else. No, Barry, any objective observer can clearly see a sportswriter who doesn't pay attention, and cares more about perpetuating false stereotypes and brainless cliches than anything else. Probably acting out on some kind of personal grudge too.
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Of course, I didn't contest this - I said 24 is accurate. I only pointed out there's a difference between: Scenario A: magic number = 24 to eliminate a particular team (Cards) and Scenario B: 24 to eliminate the unknown 2nd place WC team. biittner77 nicely summarized the difference in his post. If we look at magic number as roughly the expected number of days to clinch, then the difference manifests itself. Imagine simulating the rest of the season a million times, like BP does, and take the average playoff clinch date of those simulations where the Cubs make the playoffs. The average clinch date of Scenario B would be later than Scenario A (probably by a day or so in the current case of the Cards & Phils contending).
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24 for a playoff spot. 28 for the division. 24 is the Stl number -- I think the 2nd place NL East team (Phils or Mets) has an excellent chance of passing the Cards before a clinch date, so 24 is a little misleading. It's lower than 24 for the Phils, so 24 is accurate for the time being. Sure it's accurate, but my point is there's obviously a difference between a magic # to eliminate a team with no competition, compared to the same magic # to eliminate a team with a very good team right on their tail. Any bond future traders out there will recognize this effect as the cheapest to deliver option in T-bond futures. Right now Stl is the "cheapest to deliver" bond, but the 2nd cheapest bond (Phil) is a close 2nd, and it significantly affects pricing.
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24 for a playoff spot. 28 for the division. 24 is the Stl number -- I think the 2nd place NL East team (Phils or Mets) has an excellent chance of passing the Cards before a clinch date, so 24 is a little misleading.
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Between 33 and 42 over you have to go back to '45, Between 43 and 48 you have to go back to Charlie Grimm's '35 team, Between 49 and 53, 1910 Between 54 and the all-time high 80, it's ... hey, did ESPN or anyone ever realize this is the 100 year anniversary?
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2nd to last game in 84 put them 30 over: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN198409290.shtml The last game put them 31 over.
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Harden's last two starts: 14 IP, 21 K, 0 BB, 4 Hits :shock:
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Yeah a playoff clincher, with the division yet to be settled, would be followed by a very low key champagne-free celebration in the clubhouse. But if it's at Wrigley the fans will party.
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I've never liked the whole magic number thing - I like a more tangible (but otherwise equivalent) measure: expected clinch date. If you're looking at the Cubs schedule you easily can do this in your head: take the date of the last game on the schedule and step back one day per games ahead in the loss column, minus one. So right now the ECD vs Milw is Sept 28 - 5 days, or Sept 23. The win last night coupled with the Brewers loss gets the ECD one day closer to that last home stand vs Stl, which would be especially sweet. The ECD is unchanged on days the Cubs & Brewers both lose or both don't lose (maybe because one didn't play), otherwise it ticks forward or backward one day.
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This band nailed a few songs in their day too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znUo7Ibja8c
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Video from Kerry Wood's bowling event
FergieJ31 replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Not sure if this was posted too: Kerry's son Justin singing Go Cubs Go ... everyone all together now: "Awwwwwwwww" -
Video from Kerry Wood's bowling event
FergieJ31 replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Oh yeah, he was definitely rocking the pick up eyes. I know a girl that was banging him last year before he got good. Any pitcher could use an Annie Savoy: -
sad day to quote a "Bernie M" yikes - lighten up - I only posted it for a few yucks. And the bit about Edmonds refusing a "courtesy" interview w/Stl media, if true, was noteworthy. I emphasize "if true", because Bernie is indeed a dbag and I wouldn't put it past him to embellish or fabricate that.
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Bernie M had an interesting perspective on the game in his column today: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/berniemiklasz/story/E7777CAD3A090490862574A0000CEBB3?OpenDocument
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W
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Aramis is a professional hitter, boy I'll tell you that much