CubinNY

Dunn has Astro written all over him.

You must remember that health will be the overriding factor. I see the rotation, as of Feb. 2, as: Zambrano Lilly Hill Marquis Prior/Miller or Miller/Prior Bullpen: Eyre Ohman Cotts Howry Wood (if healthy) Dempster Battle among Wuertz, Novoa and somebody I'm surely forgetting if Prior wins the last spot what will the Cubs do with Miller? If Miller wins the last spot does Prior go to AAA? If Miller wins the last spot, it probably means Prior is on the DL. If Prior wins the last spot, it means Miller is on the DL, somebody else is on the DL or the Cubs don't see enough from Miller to keep him. We're a long, long way from these things sorting themselves out. Thanks as always. The Cubs are giving a lot of tough love to Prior. I don't mind it so much, but the bloom is clearly off the rose.

You must remember that health will be the overriding factor. I see the rotation, as of Feb. 2, as: Zambrano Lilly Hill Marquis Prior/Miller or Miller/Prior Bullpen: Eyre Ohman Cotts Howry Wood (if healthy) Dempster Battle among Wuertz, Novoa and somebody I'm surely forgetting if Prior wins the last spot what will the Cubs do with Miller? If Miller wins the last spot does Prior go to AAA?

For it to be over.

I'm not a real big football fan. My senior year in high school ruiend my love of football. My entire family are huge bears fans. I have a cousin who has his entire basement decked out in Bears colors. Football doesn't hold much interest for at all.

I love college baseball as well. I go to a lot of Alabama and Troy games. I'm heading down to Troy, Alabama, next weekend for the Troy/Arkansas series. Then in April, baseball is in full force with the MLB and with the minor leagues. We have the Montgomery Biscuits here in my hometown and we're the defending Class AA Southern League Champs. My wife's family lives in Prattville! I love the Biscuts stadium and some great talent has come through there. I'll be down to watch the Smokies (Cubs AA) this summer.

I don't know about the "great" part, but I could see him being fast tracked to be a manager. I wouldn't be shocked if LaRussa made him a bench coach or something. My prediction: His first job will be with the Cardinals. Welcome to the forum!

I'd have to ask why. The Cubs need OBP and Ichiro provides a lot more of it than Jacque. That difference isn't worth 7MM in 2007, much less trading away a decent pitching prospect in Gallagher and a ptbnl. Jones/Ichiro is a tradeoff, not an across the board upgrade. Jones '07: .285/.334/.499/.833 Suzuki '07: .322/.370/.416/.786 36 points in OBP is worth 7MM? I think not. We could get more than that at SS (not to mention more power) w/o spending that kind of loot. CF/RF is a silly place to throw away 7MM on this Cubs team. Are we not counting the 43 steals in 45 attempts, and the excellent defense and cannon arm against whatever the hell Jones was doing in RF last season. Those things might be overvalued, but they shouldn't be ignored either. It's still not 7MM in difference. I hate to defend Jones's throwing, but he did have an injured shoulder that he just played through. I'm not a Jacque Jones fan. I'm sure I'll be yelling at him several times this coming season (if he remains a Cub), but he's not a scrub and he's a real decent OFer with his current contract. I don't think Jones is a scrub, I think Ichiro is an all-star level player, or at least very close to one. The money is not as big of a deal to me at this point in the offseason, because I don't think making this move would limit the Cubs from doing anything else with the money. If they don't make this move (and again, I assume nothing comes of this) it's not like they will use that $7 Million on someone else. If you think the difference between Ichiro and Jones isn't worth the prospects, I can respect that. I just think with the logjam in our rotation, with Veal ahead of Gallagher, and guys like Guzman, Pawelek, and Samardzija at or near the same level it is a move we can afford to make, that greatly improves the 07 roster. We're going to need our farm to start producing when our backloaded contracts catch up to us. It certainly isn't producing position players at an acceptable rate. Dealing away Nolasco for a 1 year rental was dumb. Dealing away another potential ML arm (not to mention the ptbnl) for what could be another 1 year rental would be ______. You fill in the blank. Ichiro >>>> Pierre That doesn't fit in the blank.

NY, seems to me it's obvious that there's a real risk that he won't be any good. He's no sure thing, not even close. And where there are differing scouting evals, it's certainly possible that the favorable ones will not end up vindicated. But it almost seems like you're going to the far extreme. You've seemed to take the view that favorable scouting evals are "hype" (which implies not substantive), and he doesn't have much more than a decent fastball. If he's just a decent-fastball guy with nothing else, it raises a conundrum about why Callis and Manuel rate him top 50; about why the Cubs paid him $10 (even after having had him for some games in which they could see him for the fraud he may be); and about why apparently at least a dozen teams viewed him as at least a solid middle-upper first-round talent pre-draft. There are two easy ways to resolve the conundrum. One is to take the view that Callis, Manuel, the Cubs, and perhaps also teams that viewed his talent (if not his lack of commitment) as clear first round are all dopes. Why waste even a 1st round pick on a dude with nothing more than a decent fastball, much less a $10 bonus or a top-50 ranking? A second possible resolution is that perhaps the premise is wrong. Perhaps he does have more than just a "decent" fastball. If so, then maybe it's not so puzzling why he's being hyped beyond the norm for guys with nothing more than decent fastballs. In this instance I am taking the scouting reports at face value. I mean, that's all the real data we have. Overall, I think scouts serve a useful purpose, but the nature of the business says they are wrong far more often then they are right. This is one example where the reports vary widely. This leads me to be very cautious. I am hoping all the good things the scouts say are true. However, that doesn't change the fact that he's 22 and has been a part-time baseball player for the last four years. He's got a lot to learn and a lot of pressure. Maybe his college experience will help him in that regard but at this point he's just another prospect. I think the fact that he played football at an over-hyped football program has generalized to him. It doesn't really matter, we'll be finding out soon enough.

Where did you hear this from? It sounds too good to be true. Ichiro Suzuki or some other Suzuki?

I did find this interesting... But Prior's response... Boy oh boy, the Cubs do like a soap opera. I think Miller will go to the bullpen or be traded if Prior is healthy.

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution. He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all. I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it. Playing college baseball is not "retarding progress". I could also spin this and say he hasn't thrown as much as other prospects have, giving him a fresher arm. He hasn't played college baseball full time. He's split time between football and baseball. From all indications, he has a decent fastball and not much else. Not many college pitchers are that highly regarded with only one pitch, as craig pointed out. A fresh arm? We don't know how his arm will hold up in a full season of professional baseball.

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution. He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all. I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Blasphemer! No it's not!

What the hell does "throwing with confidence mean"? If he's healthy he will pitch regularly. If he's not he won't. Confidence is an outcome of pitching well and lack of such is an outcome of not performing well. .

What does "better" mean? and how much is "much". According to the data they weren't more efficient.

Then what do you base your opinon on, their astrological signs?

I wish they switch the the early 1900s uniform.

This is a unique perspective from the cubs... I was waiting for someone to bring this up. Also, what can be said for the Cubs pitchers' assumed continued reliance on strikeouts - due to our also assumed crappy defense? I don't think they have much control over that. Some guys are strikeout pitchers. Strikeouts are a good thing but they can create high pitch counts. It's all about being efficient. I think it is better for a pitcher to go after the batter rather than nibble at the zone, that's when you get high pitch counts and walks. It's all about being effective within the strike zone. The Cubs defense isn't crappy.

I was thinking the same thing.

Yes. ESPN just ranked them in the top 10 becuase of Hughes and Tabata. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2742549

fangraphs.com is possible the greatest place for information about professional baseball known to man. Here is a comparison of Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton. http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=6307&playerid2=518&playerid3=&position=OF&page=8&type=full

Which is why I didn't do it in the first place. To look at the trend you don't need to use the least square method or statistics. It is the wrong tool for the job in this case. The point I orginally made was that the Cubs are right where they were 10 years ago. They have gone nowhere.

I wonder how much of Helton's salary Boston will be taking?

I wonder if he factored in the trades that can be made with an over-hyped prospect? Or someone like Dontrell Willis who wasn't that highly rated. Free agency and the Rule 5 draft have changed baseball a lot since the 1970s and 1980s. Teams like the Dodgers use to stockpile prospects while teams like the Yankees use to just buy them for cash when they were ready.